Mike Byrnes, Tony Davis Mar. 2, 2007

The Question: 3 “Do we have enough water?”

We: … Where? Who? o Where: Upper Hondo o Who: region, resource, common interests i.e., – Stakeholders Have: o i.e., Physical water o i.e., Own [water rights] Enough: o Current usage o Projected growth How to answer the question: (organization) o POC’s, working group, stakeholders, SNL. 4 “Do we have enough water?” (parsing the Question)

Outline: Upper Hondo o geographical region (demand) Physical Water o basics o generic modeling Enough Water: o Current usage o Projected growth How: (organization) o Modeling o POC’s, working group, stakeholders, SNL o Process flow 5

“Hydrologic Units”: 6

The Hondo Basin: 7

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Water Basics: Water comes to us from the heavens: precipitation. It doesn’t always stay. It evaporates, it flows downstream, it gets used. All ground-water was once rain; that’s how it got there. Precipitation can be measured, so can streamflow and usage. The amount of water that leaves us by evaporation is less easily determined. Related to this is how much infiltrates the ground to become groundwater. 11

Water Basics: (groundwater) Water, once in the ground, is neither created or destroyed. It might flow somewhere, or come out as a spring, but generally when underground, it doesn’t flow very fast and it tends to stick around. Often it’s been there for a long time. All ground-water was once rain; that’s how it got there. Water in the ground can be considered stored there. The question is, how much is stored, what is our inventory? 12

Water Picture Aquifer Storage trans/evaporation stream flow (losing) (gaining) Rainfall ( larger the acreage, smaller the boundary / volume ) aquifer flow inaquifer flow out Usage Withdrawal (septic return) (~ 7% infiltration) 13

AnnualPotentialinfiltrationgroundwater WatershedArea -- acRainfall - ftwaterratepotential Rio Bonito %1638 Rio Ruidoso / Eagle Creek %2576 Avg.Total PopulationUsage Used* Ruidoso Avg. Streamflow Rio Ruidoso 9000 Some numbers: (approximate, just for example)

Rio Ruidoso Streamflow:

Generic Model: (just for example) 16 Uncontrolled inputs Controlled inputs Outputs Process – internal states storage dynamics

Generic Model: (just for example) 17 Uncontrolled inputs Controlled inputs Outputs Internal states – reservoir level aquifer level snowpack population capital investment precipitation temperature conservation pop. growth river flow aquifer level econ. growth$$$ Example model: (Middle Rio Grande Cooperative Water Model)

Scenarios? Climate o 1950’s – like drought o average precipitation o global warming? Conservation Degree of Development o development density (condos, 5ac. Lots) o Projected growth, projected usage Others: (?) 18

USGS Study:

Capitan Precipitation:

Ruidoso Precipitation:

Rio Ruidoso Streamflow:

Water Rights: Beneficial use o o in stream flow Seniority, place of use Limitations o full appropriation o transfers o leasing Other: o This is a Closed Basin 23

Who: (stakeholders) Regions: – elected officials/representatives to represent geographical sub-regions or municipalities,. Resources: – agency and community water systems representatives. [data, policy advice] Common Interest Representatives. 24

Who: (stakeholders) Regions: – elected officials/representatives to represent geographical sub-regions or municipalities,. Resources: – agency and community water systems representatives. [data, policy advice] Common Interest Representatives. 25 o Lincoln County o VOR o Ruidoso Downs o Hondo Valley o Alto o Capitan o Mescalero Tribe o

Who: (stakeholders) Regions: – elected officials/representatives to represent geographical sub-regions or municipalities,. Resources: – agency and community water systems representatives. [data, policy advice] Common Interest Representatives. 26 o SNL o USGS o OSE o ENMU o USFS o VOR o BLM o USDA o ALWC

Who: (stakeholders) Regions: – elected officials/representatives to represent geographical sub-regions or municipalities,. Resources: – agency and community water systems representatives. [data, policy advice] Common Interest Representatives. (examples: partial list) 27 o agriculture o realtors o residents o developers o Mescalero o River Assoc. o recreation o Pecos Valley o E.C.C.A. o comm. water sys. o part time residents o Ft. Stanton

Process flow: 28 Questions Controlled inputs Metrics (basis for comparison) Model – SNL Conceptual elements – politics real world economy policy, law water rights Stakeholders ScenariosMetrics Scenarios Options Questions: (play with model) Decisions: (policy, planning)

Questions to ask of the model: Where to set ‘Conservation Phases’? What to do in a drought? Where best to add water? How much water is in the aquifer? Where best to use water rights? What level of development? What growth is sustainable? What growth is ‘smart’? How to maintain minimum levels, flows? What are the effects of a moratorium? ….. 29

Example model: (Middle Rio Grande Cooperative Water Model)

Water and Economic Development “There is no phase of economic development in New Mexico in which water does not play some role, usually an important one. -- NM Governor Jack Campbell 1965

What’s the value of water? Water has an economic value in all its competing uses and should be recognized as an economic good. The municipal and industrial market for water can bear much higher costs than irrigation agriculture.

What’s the value of water? The prices which most users pay for water reflect, at best, its physical supply cost and not its scarcity value. In places where water is cheap, this is almost always because the infrastructure is inexpensive or the water is subsidized.

What’s the value of water? “It is ironic that we treat our most valuable resource as if it were worthless. We are quick to understand the value of gold or oil or beef. Yet we take for granted the water needed to mine and mill the gold or to feed the and process the beef. -- Richard Lamm

What’s the value of water The market price of a good or service is directly related to people’s willingness and ability to pay for it. If demand for a particular good is high, but there is simply not enough to go around, the market price will also be high.