The Future of Electricity Analyzing the Next Decade of Ontario’s Power Generation

The Future of Electricity Analyzing the Next Decade of Ontario’s Power Generation or

Background  Coal phase-out  Increased demand  Lack of new sources Ontario is facing a possible electricity shortfall:

Background

Supply Distribution

 On average, coal-fired generation plants have the second highest electricity capacity  14 hydroelectric power plants = 1 coal- fired plant  Closure of five coal- fired plants leaves electricity deficit

Electricity Importation  Ontario imports U.S. electricity when additional supply is required  Histogram shows how many times per month imports > 2,500 MW were required  Binomial Distribution

Electricity Importation  Predict: How many days per month will imports exceed 2,500 MW?  B.P.D. equation used to create graph  Expected Value E(X) = np = 2.43 days/month

Demand Forecast  Points represent Ontario’s peak demand since 1987  Least squares line and standard deviation lines represent increase  Peak demand in 2015: 25, ,800 MW (possible +2,800 MW from today)

Peak Demand  Average peak demand (2005) has increased 2,400 MW since 2002  Standard deviation lines in 2005 are spread further from mean (peak demand is more dispersed and unpredictable)  Peak demand exceeds mean more frequently in 2005 (15) than in 2002 (13)

Changing Trends  Winter demand has been traditionally higher than summer demand  This trend is predicted to change in  Extreme weather can drastically impact electricity demand (possible 3,000 MW annual increase)

Top 20  Graph illustrates top 20 demand days in Ontario’s history  All 20 have occurred since 2002  13 out of the 20 have occurred since June 2005

Supply vs. Demand  Concept of supply and demand  Supply meets demand until 2013  Green represents the difference between supply and demand

Supply vs. Demand  Green represents the difference between supply and demand  Past 2013, Ontario requires more electricity than it produces

Conclusion  Impact of coal-fired closures and inadequate replacement strategies  Peak electrical demand has consistently been higher than ever in recent months  OPA Report describes reasons for electricity shortfall

Works Cited