SENSITIVITY OF WATER RESOURCES OF BANGLADESH TO CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE AHSAN UDDIN AHMED Head Water and Environment Division Bangladesh Unnayan.

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Presentation transcript:

SENSITIVITY OF WATER RESOURCES OF BANGLADESH TO CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE AHSAN UDDIN AHMED Head Water and Environment Division Bangladesh Unnayan Parishad (BUP)

AIACC Regional Workshop: AsiaSensitivity of Water Resources of Bangladesh In terms of per capita mean annual availability of water resources, Bangladesh ranks high. But there is a great influence of climate variability, in relation to both temporal and spatial distribution of water resources. Such variabilities determine availability and use- potential of water, which in turn characterize agro- ecological diversity of the country. The location of the country in its regional setup adds an element of vulnerability by giving rise climatic extremes. The regional aspects of water management put additional difficulties towards adaptation to climate variability and change.

AIACC Regional Workshop: AsiaSensitivity of Water Resources of Bangladesh Bangladesh is a low-lying delta. The eastern-Himalayan rivers (GBM) drain over the landmass of Bangladesh. The country occupies only about 7% of the combined catchment area, while it has to drain over 92% of the GBM flows.

AIACC Regional Workshop: AsiaSensitivity of Water Resources of Bangladesh The climate of the country is strongly influenced by monsoon.

AIACC Regional Workshop: AsiaSensitivity of Water Resources of Bangladesh About 80% of all rainfall occurs between June and mid-October. Such a high seasonal rainfall variability results in “too much water” in monsoon, and “too little water” in the dry season. Peak monsoon brings flood and flood situation is accentuated by poor conveyance capacity, and high backwater effect at confluences.

AIACC Regional Workshop: AsiaSensitivity of Water Resources of Bangladesh Usual floods VS Unusual floods There has been an increase in frequency for high intensity floods Severe floods occurred in 1987, 1988 and 1998 During the deluge of 1998 about 68% of the landmass of the country was under water for about 70 days!

AIACC Regional Workshop: AsiaSensitivity of Water Resources of Bangladesh

AIACC Regional Workshop: AsiaSensitivity of Water Resources of Bangladesh In the post-monsoon to pre-monsoon period, rainfall diminishes while temperature increases. Low rainfall runoff reduces river flows, consequently salinity penetrates along the coastal rivers. A combination of increased temperature and reduced rainfall results in an increase in evapo-transpiration, which is detrimental for crop growth.

AIACC Regional Workshop: AsiaSensitivity of Water Resources of Bangladesh

AIACC Regional Workshop: AsiaSensitivity of Water Resources of Bangladesh How climate variability will change under climate change regime?

AIACC Regional Workshop: AsiaSensitivity of Water Resources of Bangladesh A-O Coupled GCM projections of monsoon rainfall (IS92a).

AIACC Regional Workshop: AsiaSensitivity of Water Resources of Bangladesh Under climate change scenarios, mean monthly rainfall will show significant changes over normal (i.e., current variability).

AIACC Regional Workshop: AsiaSensitivity of Water Resources of Bangladesh Number of rainy days in Bangladesh will increase by about 20 days.

AIACC Regional Workshop: AsiaSensitivity of Water Resources of Bangladesh Conclusions Water resources and hydrology of Bangladesh are highly sensitive to current climate variability. Within Bangladesh, climate variability has two major dimensions: temporal and spatial. Both are highly significant. There are various elements of vulnerability associated to current climate variability. Under climate change, observed climate variability will only increase causing extreme climate conditions. Floods, droughts and salinity ingress will occur more frequently and with higher intensity. The country has to implement adaptation measures in order to reduce its current vulnerability to climate variability and change.

AIACC Regional Workshop: AsiaSensitivity of Water Resources of Bangladesh Thank you so much