SOUTHEAST ASIA IN AN ERA OF FINANCIAL CRISES Economic Vitality and Political Legitimacy

“It’s the economy, stupid” Or is it? Singapore’s 2010 GDP growth was 14.5% PAP took a “pasting” in 2011 elections

Fall of Suharto in Indonesia Mahathir-Anwar split in Malaysia New government and constitution in Thailand

This morning’s session Lecture One: Changes in Southeast Asian economies Regional “commodity chains” Lecture Two: Why are many SEA economies so successful?

Southeast Asian economies Large populations Largish economies Average 2009 pci (PPP $) near $5,000 Malaysia near $14,000 Myanmar near $1,000

Why was the “hamburger” crisis less severe? Commodity prices (China) Demand (China) Lessons learned healthy banks current account surpluses Fiscal stimulus

De-coupled from Europe and NA? Falling shares of exports to EU and NA Rising shares of exports to China But….

ASEAN : AFTA AEC by 2015

Vertical specialization Middle income trap? Global economic adjustments

From flying geese to commodity chains Textile industry Transport machinery and electronics

Further readings? OECD, Southeast Asian Economic Outlook, 2010 Dan Slater, Ordering Power. Contentious Politics and Authoritarian Leviathans in Southeast Asia (Cambridge University Press, 2010) Olivier Cattaneo, Gary Gereffi, and Cornelia Staritz, eds. Global Value Chains in a Postcrisis World: A Development Perspective (World Bank, 2010)