1 Joint Hurricane Testbed (JHT) 2010 Update Transition from Research to Operations Jiann-Gwo Jiing Chief, Technical Support Branch, NHC JHT Director Chris.

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Presentation transcript:

1 Joint Hurricane Testbed (JHT) 2010 Update Transition from Research to Operations Jiann-Gwo Jiing Chief, Technical Support Branch, NHC JHT Director Chris Landsea NHC Shirley Murillo NOAA/HRD NOAA Hurricane Conference 30 November,

2 The Forecasters The Researchers (them): How to bridge the “valley of death”? Weather Forecast Offices

3 JHT Process Principal Investigators apply for funding through NOAA Principal Investigators apply for funding through NOAA A seven member Steering Committee rates all proposals A seven member Steering Committee rates all proposals Funded projects are tested during one or two hurricane seasons in conjunction with NHC/ Environmental Modeling Center points of contact Funded projects are tested during one or two hurricane seasons in conjunction with NHC/ Environmental Modeling Center points of contact At the project’s end, each are evaluated by NHC/EMC staff At the project’s end, each are evaluated by NHC/EMC staff Implementation of successful projects are then carried out by NHC/EMC staff/PIs Implementation of successful projects are then carried out by NHC/EMC staff/PIs

4 Summary of JHT projects ) Number of projects supported: 62 1) Number of projects supported: 62 – 50 completed, 35.5 accepted for operational implementation – Number of projects rejected: 5 – Number of projects completed but pending further investigation (decisions deferred): 9.5 – Number of projects in process: 12 2) Implementation 2) Implementation – Number of projects implemented: 31.5 Number of numerical modeling related projects implemented by EMC/NCO: 10 Number of numerical modeling related projects implemented by EMC/NCO: 10 Number of projects implemented by NHC: 21.5 Number of projects implemented by NHC: 21.5 – Number of projects accepted but not yet fully implemented by NHC: 4 Note: 1) Implementation is defined when a project is completed, accepted, and the technique installed on NCEP/NCO or NHC operational systems and runs on operational time frame. 1) Implementation is defined when a project is completed, accepted, and the technique installed on NCEP/NCO or NHC operational systems and runs on operational time frame. Some techniques were “implemented” on JHT platform for testing. Some techniques were “implemented” on JHT platform for testing. 1) Number of projects supported: 62 1) Number of projects supported: 62 – 50 completed, 35.5 accepted for operational implementation – Number of projects rejected: 5 – Number of projects completed but pending further investigation (decisions deferred): 9.5 – Number of projects in process: 12 2) Implementation 2) Implementation – Number of projects implemented: 31.5 Number of numerical modeling related projects implemented by EMC/NCO: 10 Number of numerical modeling related projects implemented by EMC/NCO: 10 Number of projects implemented by NHC: 21.5 Number of projects implemented by NHC: 21.5 – Number of projects accepted but not yet fully implemented by NHC: 4 Note: 1) Implementation is defined when a project is completed, accepted, and the technique installed on NCEP/NCO or NHC operational systems and runs on operational time frame. 1) Implementation is defined when a project is completed, accepted, and the technique installed on NCEP/NCO or NHC operational systems and runs on operational time frame. Some techniques were “implemented” on JHT platform for testing. Some techniques were “implemented” on JHT platform for testing.

5 Highlights of 4th Round Completed Projects Visualization Tool & SFMR – Carswell/Uhlhorn TC Dressing – Hansen Sea Spray Parameterization – Bao/Fairall Coupled TC-Wave-Ocean - Ginis Ocean Atmosphere Sea Spray by P. Black Ocean surface whitecaps and foam streaks in a hurricane at wind speeds of ~46 m/s

6 Factors Considered in NHC Decisions on Operational Implementation Forecast or Analysis Benefit: expected improvement in operational forecast and/or analysis accuracy Forecast or Analysis Benefit: expected improvement in operational forecast and/or analysis accuracy Efficiency: adherence to forecaster time constraints and ease of use needs Efficiency: adherence to forecaster time constraints and ease of use needs Compatibility: IT compatibility with operational hardware, software, data, communications, etc. Compatibility: IT compatibility with operational hardware, software, data, communications, etc. Sustainability: availability of resources to operate, upgrade, and/or provide support Sustainability: availability of resources to operate, upgrade, and/or provide support Forecast or Analysis Benefit: expected improvement in operational forecast and/or analysis accuracy Forecast or Analysis Benefit: expected improvement in operational forecast and/or analysis accuracy Efficiency: adherence to forecaster time constraints and ease of use needs Efficiency: adherence to forecaster time constraints and ease of use needs Compatibility: IT compatibility with operational hardware, software, data, communications, etc. Compatibility: IT compatibility with operational hardware, software, data, communications, etc. Sustainability: availability of resources to operate, upgrade, and/or provide support Sustainability: availability of resources to operate, upgrade, and/or provide support

7 Primary Area of Focus # of Projects Improvements to dynamical models (for track, intensity, and precipitation forecasts) 5 Statistical intensity forecast guidance 3 Enhancements to observed data, assimilation 1 Tropical cyclone structure/wind/wave distribution 2 Enhancements to operational environment 1 Total Major Activities 5th Round Project Focus Areas

8 Challenges for 2010 and 2011 Implement newly accepted projects (NHC) Implement newly accepted projects (NHC) – JHT final review/reports to NHC Director – NHC Director makes implementation decision – Staff at NHC works to implement accepted projects Test and evaluation (with NHC & EMC) Test and evaluation (with NHC & EMC) – Prepare real-time testing & evaluation for 5 th round projects – Set up necessary software code and data flow Prepare for 6 th round (FY11) projects Prepare for 6 th round (FY11) projects – Funding announcement – July 2010 – LOIs (30 received/reviewed)– August 2010 – Full Proposals (23 received/being reviewed) – Oct 2010 – Funding Decisions – March 2011 – Projects Start – August 2011 Implement newly accepted projects (NHC) Implement newly accepted projects (NHC) – JHT final review/reports to NHC Director – NHC Director makes implementation decision – Staff at NHC works to implement accepted projects Test and evaluation (with NHC & EMC) Test and evaluation (with NHC & EMC) – Prepare real-time testing & evaluation for 5 th round projects – Set up necessary software code and data flow Prepare for 6 th round (FY11) projects Prepare for 6 th round (FY11) projects – Funding announcement – July 2010 – LOIs (30 received/reviewed)– August 2010 – Full Proposals (23 received/being reviewed) – Oct 2010 – Funding Decisions – March 2011 – Projects Start – August 2011

NHC’s Visiting Scientist Program Bring in Researchers and Outside Forecasters Annually Visit During the Peak (Aug-Oct) of the Season Learn About Operational Tools, Resources, & Constraints NHC Forecasters Exposed to New Ideas & Methods Funded through Hurricane Forecast Improvement Prog. Bring in Researchers and Outside Forecasters Annually Visit During the Peak (Aug-Oct) of the Season Learn About Operational Tools, Resources, & Constraints NHC Forecasters Exposed to New Ideas & Methods Funded through Hurricane Forecast Improvement Prog.

10 AcknowledgementsAcknowledgements JHT Steering CommitteeJHT Steering Committee Shirley Murillo, JHT Admin. Asst.Shirley Murillo, JHT Admin. Asst. Chris Landsea, JHT Admin. Asst.Chris Landsea, JHT Admin. Asst. Jose Salazar, JHT meteorologist/programmerJose Salazar, JHT meteorologist/programmer NHC and EMC forecaster and points of contactNHC and EMC forecaster and points of contact NHC/Technical Support Branch staffNHC/Technical Support Branch staff JHT principal investigators and other funded participantsJHT principal investigators and other funded participants John Gaynor/Roger Pierce (USWRP)John Gaynor/Roger Pierce (USWRP) NHC admin staffNHC admin staff JHT Steering CommitteeJHT Steering Committee Shirley Murillo, JHT Admin. Asst.Shirley Murillo, JHT Admin. Asst. Chris Landsea, JHT Admin. Asst.Chris Landsea, JHT Admin. Asst. Jose Salazar, JHT meteorologist/programmerJose Salazar, JHT meteorologist/programmer NHC and EMC forecaster and points of contactNHC and EMC forecaster and points of contact NHC/Technical Support Branch staffNHC/Technical Support Branch staff JHT principal investigators and other funded participantsJHT principal investigators and other funded participants John Gaynor/Roger Pierce (USWRP)John Gaynor/Roger Pierce (USWRP) NHC admin staffNHC admin staff

11 Joint Hurricane Testbed (JHT) 2010 Update Transition from Research to Operations Jiann-Gwo Jiing Chief, Technical Support Branch, NHC JHT Director Chris Landsea NHC Shirley Murillo NOAA/HRD NOAA Hurricane Conference 30 November,

12 Highlights of 4th Round Completed Projects Drag Coefficient in Shallow Water - Powell Ocean Model Parameterizations - Shay Improved Wind Probabilities – DeMaria/Knaff Enhanced ATCF - Sampson

13 Highlights of 4th Round Completed Projects HWRF Transition - Tuleya Waves from Aircraft - Walsh

14 JHT Website

15 Thank you

present Major Activities Second year for nine 4 th round projects – August 2008-July 2009 Second year for nine 4 th round projects – August 2008-July 2009 Testing of 4 th round projects Testing of 4 th round projects – Collaboration with PI – Programming – Establishing data flow – Generating output for forecaster use/evaluation Final Reports from Principal Investigators – August 2009-February 2010 Final Reports from Principal Investigators – August 2009-February 2010 – Feedback from NHC and EMC points of contact Second year for nine 4 th round projects – August 2008-July 2009 Second year for nine 4 th round projects – August 2008-July 2009 Testing of 4 th round projects Testing of 4 th round projects – Collaboration with PI – Programming – Establishing data flow – Generating output for forecaster use/evaluation Final Reports from Principal Investigators – August 2009-February 2010 Final Reports from Principal Investigators – August 2009-February 2010 – Feedback from NHC and EMC points of contact

17 Implementation (NHC) Implementation (NHC) Some relative easy Some relative easy Some very complicated Some very complicated NHC contributes ≥ 0.5 FTE/yr on implementation NHC contributes ≥ 0.5 FTE/yr on implementation JHT IT facilitator assists in the process JHT IT facilitator assists in the process NCEP/EMC and NCO also contributed NCEP/EMC and NCO also contributed Implementation (NHC) Implementation (NHC) Some relative easy Some relative easy Some very complicated Some very complicated NHC contributes ≥ 0.5 FTE/yr on implementation NHC contributes ≥ 0.5 FTE/yr on implementation JHT IT facilitator assists in the process JHT IT facilitator assists in the process NCEP/EMC and NCO also contributed NCEP/EMC and NCO also contributed Operational Centers are not funded for this task

18 Supplemental Slides

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20 Private Companies 9% NOAA 22% State/Private Universities 61% Navy (NRL) 8% 5th Round (FY09) Funding Distribution Total $1.15M

21 Logistics Dedicated physical space in operations, offices Dedicated physical space in operations, officesPersonnel NHC dedicating about 1.5 FTE spread across ~12 people NHC dedicating about 1.5 FTE spread across ~12 people – 0.5 FTE reimbursed by USWRP for quarter-time JHT Director and one quarter-time JHT administrative assistant – NHC contributing 1.0 FTE, including NHC member on JHT Steering Committee, forecasters, and technical support staff Forecaster and technical points of contact (POC) Forecaster and technical points of contact (POC) Programming, system administration, and network support Programming, system administration, and network support Administrative support Administrative support Computing Resources Network connectivity Network connectivity Operational data flow Operational data flowLogistics Dedicated physical space in operations, offices Dedicated physical space in operations, officesPersonnel NHC dedicating about 1.5 FTE spread across ~12 people NHC dedicating about 1.5 FTE spread across ~12 people – 0.5 FTE reimbursed by USWRP for quarter-time JHT Director and one quarter-time JHT administrative assistant – NHC contributing 1.0 FTE, including NHC member on JHT Steering Committee, forecasters, and technical support staff Forecaster and technical points of contact (POC) Forecaster and technical points of contact (POC) Programming, system administration, and network support Programming, system administration, and network support Administrative support Administrative support Computing Resources Network connectivity Network connectivity Operational data flow Operational data flow NHC Contributions to JHT

22 JHT Infrastructure Personnel Quarter-time Director (NOAA FTE) Quarter-time Director (NOAA FTE) 7-member Steering Committee 7-member Steering Committee – Three from NOAA (one TPC), two from DOD, and two from the academic community – TPC member serves as co-Chair Two quarter-time administrative assistants (NOAA FTE) Two quarter-time administrative assistants (NOAA FTE) One IT Facilitator (meteorologist/programmer) One IT Facilitator (meteorologist/programmer) Computing Resources Server and workstations Server and workstations Software SoftwarePersonnel Quarter-time Director (NOAA FTE) Quarter-time Director (NOAA FTE) 7-member Steering Committee 7-member Steering Committee – Three from NOAA (one TPC), two from DOD, and two from the academic community – TPC member serves as co-Chair Two quarter-time administrative assistants (NOAA FTE) Two quarter-time administrative assistants (NOAA FTE) One IT Facilitator (meteorologist/programmer) One IT Facilitator (meteorologist/programmer) Computing Resources Server and workstations Server and workstations Software Software

23

24 Primary Area of Focus # of Projects Improvements to dynamical models (for track, intensity, and precipitation forecasts) 5 Statistical intensity forecast guidance 1 Enhancements to observed data, assimilation 0 Tropical cyclone structure/wind/wave distribution 2 Track forecast guidance 1 Enhancements to operational environment 1 Total present Major Activities 4th Round Project Focus Areas Cont.

25 4th Round (FY07-08) Recommended Funding Distribution Total $1.04M ($1.5M announced) Private Companies 24% NOAA 20% State and Private Universities 33% Navy (NPS, NRL) 11% NASA 12% (0%) (16%) (36%) (9%) (39%)

26

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28 B2: Model development/improvements B3: Physical processes in models on track, intensity and structure, and precipitation B6: Advanced, probabilistic guidance; optimal ensemble construction and configuration; C1: Observing strategies/capabilities C2: Observations to support model diagnostics and verification C3: New and/or improved observational technologies

29 Joint Hurricane Testbed Mission Statement The mission of the Joint Hurricane Test Bed is to transfer more rapidly and smoothly new technology, research results, and observational advances of the United States Weather Research (USWRP), its sponsoring agencies, the academic community and other groups into improved tropical cyclone analysis and prediction at operational centers.