© Crown copyright Met Office Climate Impacts The Met Office Experience Inika Taylor, 2 nd ACRE workshop, SEQLD 03/04/09

© Crown copyright Met Office Contents This presentation covers the following areas Overview of Climate Impacts The work we do A risk-based approach

© Crown copyright Met Office Overview of Climate Impacts

© Crown copyright Met Office The Met Office Provide weather and climate forecasts and other environmental services. Trading Fund of the MoD Employs over 1,700 people Essential services for government departments Commercial services for the private sector Met Office Hadley Centre for climate change research

© Crown copyright Met Office The Met Office Hadley Centre Provide science that underpins policy Monitoring global and national climate Understanding the climate system and representing it in climate models Attributing recent change to causes Predicting future change and impacts Providing advice to government and business

© Crown copyright Met Office Separation between climate and impacts science, and between different impacts areas Climate change Impacts

© Crown copyright Met Office Need greater integration

© Crown copyright Met Office Climate Impacts Team Global and Regional Climate models Impacts assessments Application of Hadley Centre Science to customer requirements Aim: world leading integrated impacts modelling and tools

© Crown copyright Met Office The Team

© Crown copyright Met Office The work we do

© Crown copyright Met Office From projections to detailed impacts Present Future national regional Climate variables: e.g. temp; pressure; rainfall Heatwaves, drought health, agriculture Local flooding flood defence, health global

© Crown copyright Met Office The Thames barrier: Thames Estuary 2100 project London is vulnerable to flooding and there are around £80billion of assets at risk Barrier flood closure is triggered when a combination of high tides are forecast in the North Sea and high river flows forecast at the tidal limit The TE2100 project provided climate change projections to inform planning for the barrier’s future. EA assessed what defence would be needed for different water levels and Met Office assessed likelihood of exceeding different threshold levels.

© Crown copyright Met Office © Crown copyright 2008 Energy Industry

© Crown copyright Met Office Extreme Value Analysis Transport Water industry Insurance industry

© Crown copyright Met Office Dawlish Railway line Coastal impact estimations for the 2020's, 2050's and 2080's at Dawlish, Devon. Giving estimates of extreme sea level and wave height for the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s to calculate likely effect on coastal railway line. Assessing risks – Increasing resilience

© Crown copyright Met Office Potential decreases in many crop yields Increased death and illness from heatwaves & spread of water-borne & vector-borne diseases Sea level rise & storm surges put coastal populations at risk Rainforests die back, emitting carbon into the atmosphere Energy generation, distribution & demand affected by rising temperatures Changes in fish stocks Increasing productivity of pasture land but desertification an increasing problem Water stress increases throughout 21 st century, especially areas reliant on glacier meltwater Hydropower potential declines as rainfall patterns change & glaciers retreat Ecosystems & biodiversity affected Potential increases in soy bean crop yields Map showing temperature increase by 2080, relative to 1961 – 1990 average, based on medium-high emissions scenario using a Met Office Hadley Centre model To more than 10°C Colour change reflects increase in mean surface temperature by 2080, from 1961 – 1990 average From 0°C Climate change impacts in South America

© Crown copyright Met Office Projected increase in fire risk due to climate change 2020s2080s Proportion of climate model simulations projecting “high” fire risk (McArthur fire danger index) QUMP transient ensemble, A1B “standard” concentrations ie: no carbon cycle feedback Golding and Betts (2008) Glob. Biogeochem. Cycles

© Crown copyright Met Office 00Z 11/05/2001 Urban Heat Islands in the UK

© Crown copyright Met Office Seasonal Tropical Storm Prediction Forecasting the number of tropical storms: Model output from dynamical seasonal prediction model: GloSea3 Predictors: - SSTs: Atlantic/Pacific - wind shear Model TSs: - form above 26˚C - moisture / precip - anticyclonic vorticity BUT: - no eye / eye-wall - rainbands - horizontal extent - Calibration - Verification - Commercial report

© Crown copyright Met Office Agriculture Representation of crops in JULES Development of agricultural suitability index Land-use conflict – agriculture vs carbon storage

© Crown copyright Met Office Sea level rise Customer focussed projections of future extreme sea levels Exploring new technologies to increase our capabilities

© Crown copyright Met Office Water Resources Decadal forecasts of river flow Development of water resource processes in JULES Climate feedbacks of land-surface management, e.g. irrigation

© Crown copyright Met Office A risk-based approach

© Crown copyright Met Office The benefits of risk analysis Risk analysis is an excellent means of communicating what climate change means to customers and providing decision relevant information A risk-based approach can effectively incorporate the uncertainty involved in future projections of climate change Risk can be a valuable tool for translating the complex results of ensemble and probabilistic climate projections

© Crown copyright Met Office Climate Change Impacts and Risk Framework

© Crown copyright Met Office Finally We now know the “worst-case IPCC scenario trajectories (or even worse) are being realised”, it is imperative that we start managing risk in order to adapt and mitigate future changes and impacts (Key Message 1 from the International Scientific Congress in Copenhagen, March 2009)

© Crown copyright Met Office Thank you

© Crown copyright Met Office Comparison of projected areas of high fire risk and deforestation 2020s2080s Deforestation projected to take place over the 2020s

© Crown copyright Met Office Precipitation difference (mm day -1 ) due to plant physiological responses to CO 2

© Crown copyright Met Office Cities in a regional climate model No Urban Scheme Urban SchemeDifference

© Crown copyright Met Office Land use, runoff and interactions Global river flows Soils (carbon/nitrogen, functions) Land use change FCO impacts project with Russia Defra project with IGER on diffuse pollution Defra project with CSL, CEFAS, VLA on agricultural contaminants 2080s annual river flow - % change (IPCC SRES A2 scenario, HadGEM1 model) Pesticide fate in agricultural ditches