The Impact of the WSA Program on Reducing High School Dropout Nikolas Pharris-Ciurej UW-BHS Project Workshop October 19, 2007

Goals of the WSA Program Encourage school redesign Reducing financial barriers, associated with college, for talented low income students Provide mentoring and support for students in high school and college Ultimately, increase college going rates and create a cadre of well educated citizens and leaders.

Potential Program Targets: High School  College Plans/Educational Goals  Academic Rigor (AP, Advanced, Honors, College Prep)  College Application Preparation (courses, SAT/ACT, FAFSA, College Applications)  High School Graduation College  College Attendance for Talented Students from Disadvantaged Backgrounds  Minimize Debt and Workload for Students from Disadvantaged Backgrounds  Increase 4 year college going rates for students in WSA schools

National Census Bureau Estimates HS Grad 84.9% 88.2% BA/BS 26.0% 30.9%

The High School Completion Problem: % of Confirmed HS Graduates

Research question: Has the WSA program impacted high school graduation rates?  Has the program impacted graduation rates for any particular subpopulations? Low Income Students Poor performing students

Administrative School Records Enrolled students: (courses & grades) Typically tabulated in aggregate data  Collaborative with school district research office Possible to match students across years  Unique student ID and birthday Major limitation: Can not distinguish dropouts and out of district transfers  Use multiple aggregate level indirect estimation techniques  We estimate ~3/5 th of the ‘exiters’ either: 1) dropout or 2) transfer and eventually dropout. Defined universe  First time 9 th graders in school district  Track for 4 years and measure “net exits”  4 cohorts (entered 9 th grade in 96, 97, 98, & 99)

Administrative School Records 5 High Schools in the District  3 WSA High Schools  2 Non-WSA High Schools  Allows for a ~ ‘treatment-control’ analysis Cohorts starting 9 th grade from 1996 to 1999  Allows for a ‘pre-post’ program effect analysis

Independent Variables Background: “Risk Factors”  Race/Ethnicity & Gender  Family Income (above/below 185% of poverty level)  Transferred into district for 9 th grade  Transferred w/in district while in HS Educational Experiences:  Enrolled in a WSA school  Over-age (indicator of prior retention)  9 th grade English—honors, ESL, special, regular  First semester 9 th grade GPA

Lexis-diagram of HS Progression

Four Year High School Graduation By WSA and Program Implementation = 4% Decline45 – 43 = 2% Increase

Four Year HS Grad Rates for Low Income Students by WSA/ Non-WSA School, Pre & Post Program Implementation Pre-Implementation Post-Implementation Non-WSA Low Income 40–41 = 1% decrease WSA Low Income 40–37 = 3% increase a Percent of Overall Population 30% a 52% 29%50%

Multivariate Analysis Logistic Regression Outcomes:  Made normal progression & graduated in 4 years  Graduated in 4 years Estimated Predicted Probabilities for an African American male from a low SES family, with a C average in 9 th grade, and a history of transferring schools

Figure 1. Predicted Probability of an African American male from a low SES family, with a C average in 9 th grade, and a history of transferring schools remaining on-track and graduating from high school in 4 years

Figure 2. Predicted Probability of an African American male from a low SES family, with a C average in 9 th grade, and a history of transferring schools graduating from high school in 4 years

Conclusion Tentative positive effect on high school graduation  Most likely due to promise of scholarship  Should continue—maybe strengthen—over time as program is fully implemented No effect on sub-populations of interest for these cohorts

Next Steps Add additional cohorts Examine whether the program is increasing HS grad rates for specific at risk sub-groups.  e.g. Does attending a WSA high school less than likely hood of dropout for poor performers in 9 th grade? Examine in which grades is the program effecting HS attrition (9 th, 10 th, 11 th, or 12 th grade)

Thank you! Direct Questions To: Nikolas Pharris-Ciurej

Four Year High School Graduation By Family Income for WSA/ Non-WSA Schools Pre & Post Program Implementation Pre-Implementation Post-Implementation Non-WSA High Income 51–57 = 6% decrease WSA High Income = 1% Increase Non-WSA Low Income 40–41 = 1% decrease WSA Low Income 40–37 = 3% increase a Percent of Overall Population 70% a 30% 48% 52%71%50%29%50%

Pattern of Change Expected