Title Approach to ASC’s evaluation of UK National Adaptation Programme

UK Climate Change Act created statutory adaptation policy cycle 1.Government assesses risks and opportunities from climate change (CCRA) 2.Produces a policy programme to address those risks (NAP) 3.Independent scrutiny of progress with the policy programme (ASC)

Structure of UK National Adaptation Programme Around 370 actions across the 6 themes Most (~75%) owned by Government and its agencies Remainder owned by business, utilities, academia, NGOs We have identified Adaptation Priorities for each NAP theme – the key factors that are most important for managing climate risks. We will evaluate progress with each of these adaptation priorities

Adaptation priorities Is there a plan?Are actions being taken? Is progress being made in managing vulnerability? Priority #1 e.g. Community -scale flood defence Green –plans or policies are in place to fully address the adaptation priority Amber – plans or policies in place that partially address the adaptation priority Red – no policies in place Green – relevant NAP actions fully met or on-track Amber – not all relevant NAP actions fully met or on-track Red – relevant NAP actions behind schedule Green – on track Vulnerability reducing, or not increasing High uptake low-regret actions Long-term decisions are accounting for future climate Amber – behind schedule Some trends in vulnerability increasing Scope to increase low-regret action Not all decisions accounting for future climate Red – not started Most trends in vulnerability increasing Minimal uptake of low-regret actions Decisions not accounting for future climate

ASC indicator framework 6 IPCC Definition of Climate Risk Trends in exposure Trends in vulnerability Trends in uptake of adaptation actions Trends in realised impacts

Approach to identifying indicators Identified and characterised around 170 indicators across the 6 NAP themes. Data drawn from a wide range of sources: – Government statistical publications – Trade body information – Policy responses – Consultancy research – Stakeholder engagement Mainly publically available Commissioned research to plug gaps Most indicators not originally designed for adaptation Consulted on draft indicators 7

Example of indicators and analysis we will use to evaluate progress 8 Adaptation priority IndicatorsAnalysis of low-regret actions/long- term decision-making New development located in appropriate areas and flood resilient Number of new properties built in areas of high flood risk per year Proportion of planning applications in flood risk areas receiving EA advice Proportion of EA objections on flood risk grounds overruled by local authority Are local authorities accounting for future flood risk when making strategic development allocations? Are local authorities accounting for future flood risk when making decisions on individual planning applications?

9 Annual rate of development has been higher on floodplain than outside it

Environment Agency advice is followed in almost all cases where specific advice is provided 10 Source: AMEC (2014) for the ASC Outcome of Environment Agency objections on flood risk grounds

Draft scorecard for Built Environment theme Adaptation prioritiesIs there a plan? Are actions taking place? Is progress being made in managing vulnerability? Community-scale flood defence Prevention of surface water flooding New development located in appropriate areas and flood resilient Flood resilience of existing buildings Resilience of people in buildings/built-up areas to high temperatures Water use in the built environment

Adaptation Sub-Committee 24