Heavy floods episodes on the 11 th and 12 th November 2008 South African case study Isaac Ngwana.

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Heavy floods episodes on the 11 th and 12 th November 2008 South African case study Isaac Ngwana

Outline Document Reference: SMRF-PSN-NGW Document Template Reference: AWC-PSN Date of last revision: 26 August General rainfall patterns Main weather systems Observation network Case study Model results and verification Conclusion

Rainfall patterns in SA Document Reference: SMRF-PSN-NGW Document Template Reference: AWC-PSN Date of last revision: 26 August

Main weather systems- responsible for flooding events TTT Tropical cyclones Cut off low Frontal system Document Reference: SMRF-PSN-NGW Document Template Reference: AWC-PSN Date of last revision: 26 August

Weather observation stations in South Africa Document Reference: SMRF-PSN-NGW Document Template Reference: AWC-PSN Date of last revision: 26 August SURFACE OBSERVATIONS  23 climate stations  23 sea surface temperature stations  25 weather offices  35 electric _manual (aws manned)  156 automatic weather stations – unmanned  165 automatic rainfall stations  1257 rainfall (monthly; ~50 provide daily data) UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS 9 Upper air stations ( Including the ISLANDS – Marion and Gough)

Weather observation stations in South Africa Document Reference: SMRF-PSN-NGW Document Template Reference: AWC-PSN Date of last revision: 26 August Weather observation stations in South Africa Document Reference: SMRF-PSN-NGW Document Template Reference: AWC-PSN Date of last revision: 26 August

RADAR NETWORK in South Africa Document Reference: SMRF-PSN-NGW Document Template Reference: AWC-PSN Date of last revision: 26 August

Case study (11 & 12 Nov 2008) - general damage Document Reference: SMRF-PSN-NGW Document Template Reference: AWC-PSN Date of last revision: 26 August people were killed Thousands evacuated Roads and bridges swept away

Warning System-print media Document Reference: SMRF-PSN-NGW Document Template Reference: AWC-PSN Date of last revision: 26 August

Early Warning System-print media cont… Document Reference: SMRF-PSN-NGW Document Template Reference: AWC-PSN Date of last revision: 26 August

11 November 2008 Document Reference: SMRF-PSN-NGW Document Template Reference: AWC-PSN Date of last revision: 26 August Observations - 11 November

Observed 24 hr rainfall 11 & 12 Nov 2012 Document Reference: SMRF-PSN-NGW Document Template Reference: AWC-PSN Date of last revision: 26 August

11 November 2008 Document Reference: SMRF-PSN-NGW Document Template Reference: AWC-PSN Date of last revision: 26 August Observations -12 November

Weather systems – 11 Nov 2012 Document Reference: SMRF-PSN-NGW Document Template Reference: AWC-PSN Date of last revision: 26 August

Observed weather -11 Nov 2008 Document Reference: SMRF-PSN-NGW Document Template Reference: AWC-PSN Date of last revision: 26 August

Observed weather 12 Nov 2008 Document Reference: SMRF-PSN-NGW Document Template Reference: AWC-PSN Date of last revision: 26 August

Observed weather -12 Nov 2008 Document Reference: SMRF-PSN-NGW Document Template Reference: AWC-PSN Date of last revision: 26 August

NWP Modeling in South Africa Document Reference: SMRF-PSN-NGW Document Template Reference: AWC-PSN Date of last revision: 26 August

NWP Modeling in South Africa Document Reference: SMRF-PSN-NGW Document Template Reference: AWC-PSN Date of last revision: 26 August ModelDomainAssimilation UM SA12LargeNo data assimilation UM SA12LargeData assimilation UM SA15SmallNo data assimilation WRF SA12LargeNo data Assimilation WRF SA15SmallNo data assimilation

Modeling - weather systems hr forecast Document Reference: SMRF-PSN-NGW Document Template Reference: AWC-PSN Date of last revision: 26 August

12 November 2008 Document Reference: SMRF-PSN-NGW Document Template Reference: AWC-PSN Date of last revision: 26 August

12 November 2008 Document Reference: SMRF-PSN-NGW Document Template Reference: AWC-PSN Date of last revision: 26 August

Model -12 November 2008 Document Reference: SMRF-PSN-NGW Document Template Reference: AWC-PSN Date of last revision: 26 August

Eye ball verification Document Reference: SMRF-PSN-NGW Document Template Reference: AWC-PSN Date of last revision: 26 August

Warning System-SAWS website Document Reference: SMRF-PSN-NGW Document Template Reference: AWC-PSN Date of last revision: 26 August

Conclusion Document Reference: SMRF-PSN-NGW Document Template Reference: AWC-PSN Date of last revision: 26 August &12 Nov 2008 flooding events were well forecast by the model Forecast warning were issued in time Necessary steps were taken by government dept. even though 47 people lost their lives Good observation data bank, but sparse Local data ingest might improve model forecast