PRB World Pop Sheet, 1997 (a quick lesson on hope and truth) ,894 8, ,114 8,

Demographic transitions in historical perspective: fertility, epidemiology, and mortality » The demographic transition paradigm » Fertility transitions: examples from Latin America » Mortality transition and the AIDS epidemic in historical perspective

Malthus, Marx, and Boserup vs. the Billions Demographic transition in the contemporary world: theories, facts and trends (see handout)

Three social philosophers: Malthus, Marx and Boserup » Thomas R. Malthus, An Essay on the Principle of Population (1798): Population increases geometrically; subsistence, arithmetically. Poverty is the result unless there is moral restraint. » Karl Marx, Das Kapital (1867): Each mode of production has its corresponding mode of reproduction.

Three social philosophers: Malthus, Marx and Boserup » Esther Boserup, The Conditions of Agricultural Growth (1965), demographic pressure (population density) promotes innovation and higher productivity in use of land (irrigation, weeding, crop intensification, better seeds) and labor (tools, better techniques).

Demographic transition: phase shifts in mortality and fertility growth rate Decline A post-modern phase?--low death rates, lower birth rates, negative growth rates.

Population (in millions) by world regions, Population Increase % Region Africa Asia Latin Amer U.S.A Developed

Fertility transitions in 15 countries:

I. Fertility Transition: In Historical Perspective

Three fertility transitions in Latin America, compared with USA fertility transitions

Transitions, revolutions, baby booms, and busts: Cuba, Mexico & USA fertility transitions baby booms baby busts

Politics, fertility and transition in Mexico, Revolution Family planning

Cuban Revolution: Baby boom ( ) and bust (1977-) baby boom baby bust

Fertility decline in Latin America,

Mexico’s fertility transition: 7 children in 1970 to 3.2 in 1992

Age patterns of fertility: USA, 1988 and 1970 vs. Mexico

Mexico’s fertility in 1971 lagged USA by a century

By 1992, Mexico lagged USA by decades.

Fertility of married Mexican women by educational levels compared with natural fertility

The educational revolution will precipitate further declines in Mexican fertility rates None Primary Secondary Post

The fertility transition in China, Mexico, India, Bangladesh, and Nigeria:

II. Epidemics: A Historical Perspective

The Age of Pestilence and Famine: an example from colonial Mexico

Second example, (northern Mexico)

III. Mortality Transition: In Historical Perspective

Mortality transitions: Examples from Latin America » Earlier and faster in Argentina, Uruguay, Cuba, and Costa Rica » Later and slower in Chile, Mexico, Brazil and Peru » Slowest in Guatemala, much of Central America, and Haiti

Life Expectancy, , 4 LA countries (unequal in 1900; now converging)

The Mortality transition in Mexico: catching up with the USA

Infant mortality declined from 13% in 1950 to 3% in 1992 (still more than 3 times the US rate).

Does HIV/AIDS contradict the epidemiological paradigm (see Bongaarts in PDR 3/96)? » HIV/AIDS is a pandemic-- 20 million cases worldwide: 2/3rds in Africa, 20% in S & SE Asia. » AIDS deaths rates will continue to rise, reaching, by 2005, per thousand population world-wide. » Behavioral change is the best hope; rates of increase in infection are slowing everywhere except in Asia.

Conclusions: » Minimal levels of economic and social development are sufficient to initiate the fertility transition. » Modest investments in preventive public health could improve quality of life and longevity in many regions of the globe. » The demographic explosion is nearly over everywhere, except in Africa.