In Hot Water – Preparing for Climate Change Not to decide to win is to decide to fail! Greg Bourne, CEO WWF-Australia 21st April 2008

Mitigation and Adaptation (c) WWF-Canon / R. MALENKI(c) WWF-Canon / Nathalie RACHETER(c) WWF-Canon / Zeb HOGAN(c) WWF-Canon / Cat HOLLOWAY(c) WWF-Canon / Michel GUNTHER(c) WWF-Canon / Edward PARKER(c) WWF-Canon / Yifei ZHANG Adaptation and mitigation intrinsically linked. Based on the premise of stabilisation at ≤2˚C, optimism! A crisis period before a New Dynamic Equilibrium or Climate Runaway?

Not to decide to win..is to decide to fail! BAU defaults to societal, economic and environmental breakdown. A severe procrastination penalty But with Runaway Climate Change Societal, economic and environmental breakdown At least - 20% GDP loss New Sustainability Paradigm -1 to 2% GDP loss But possibly a gain in world GDP Keep on as Business As Usual (BAU) Work for Global Climate Treaty to stay below a 2 o C rise Deliberately IGNORE the climate challenge and try to “ACHIEVE ADVANTAGE” in a breakdown world

Keep on as Business As Usual (BAU) Deliberately IGNORE the climate challenge and try to “ACHIEVE ADVANTAGE” in a breakdown world Work for Global Climate Treaty to stay below a 2 o C rise 25% 50% 95% 75% Probability of precipitating runaway Global Warming** 100% Runaway Global Warming Ensured BREAKDOWN defaults to IGNORE X Weak uncomprehensive targets Firm comprehensive reduction targets Probability of exceeding 2 degrees C X Global Climate Treaty with targets to stay below 2 o C rise Limited Climate Treaty BREAKDOWN defaults to BAU ** GDB rough estimate of probability of “Runaway” Global Warming 92% 97% 98% 99% 84% 69% Not to decide to win..is to decide to fail! Degrees above pre- industrial era 2007 (470) World peaking year. (CO2-eq) 2010 (510) 2020 (560) 2040 (650) 2065 (780) 2075 (950) ? ? ? ? ?

Lenton et al Tipping elements in the earth’s climate system.

A Common Goal for Climate and Energy Policy Meet projected global growth in demand Avoid dangerous impacts of climate change Use only socially and environmentally benign energy sources

Six Solutions 1.Breaking the Link between Energy Services and Primary Energy Production 2.Stopping Forest Loss 3.Concurrent growth of Low-Emissions Technologies 4.Developing Flexible Fuels, Energy Storage and New Infrastructure 5.Displacing High-Carbon Coal with Low-Carbon Gas 6.Carbon Capture and Storage

Conclusions The report's conclusion is that the technologies and sustainable energy resources known or available today are sufficient to meet this challenge, and there is still sufficient time to build up and deploy them, but only if the necessary decisions are made in the next two years. Yet it is clear that the economic policies and governmental interventions needed to propel this transition are not now in place, or even in prospect in most cases. This is a matter to which the world needs to give urgent attention.

Three Imperatives 1.Urgency. Delays will make the transition to a low-carbon economy increasingly expensive and difficult, with much greater the risks of failure. The case for early, decisive action is overwhelming. 2.A global effort. Every country has a role to play, in response to the scale and the type of challenges arising in its territory. 3.Leadership. Action is needed by governments of the world to agree targets, to collaborate in effective strategies, and to influence and co-ordinate the investment of the many trillions of dollars which will be spent on energy developments in the coming decades in any event, so that future needs are met safely and sustainably.

Carbon Budget Integrates to ~500GtC ~400GtC if we do not stop deforestation

Climate Solution Wedges

WWF scenario final energy demand How Wedges displace high emission-energy

We will overshoot

Equity and Trajectories

CO 2 only w/o LULUCF expressed as Carbon Ref: Ecofys South-North Dialogue

CO 2 only w/o LULUCF expressed as Carbon

Ref: Ecofys South-North Dialogue

-30% 385 MT ca -3.5% pa -20% 440 MT ca -2.5% pa 2020 Investment Gate 108 per cent of 1990 level Business as usual Year Kyoto Period Emissions Mt CO 2 -e Target Gate -80% 110 MT -60% 220 MT Turn the Corner by 2010 Peak Australia’s net emissions at ≤600Mt Mt deficit at 2012 equivalent to A$1 billion at A$20/tonne +1.7% pa +127% 700 MT In 2020 “With measures” best estimate Expected increase of 9 percent of 1990 level 2020 Equity Targets Contraction and Convergence -20% Common but Differentiated Convergence -22 % Multistage -20% South-North Dialogue -35%

Year Kyoto target 108% Kyoto Period Emissions Mt CO 2 -e 2020 Investment Gate If risk averse to economic damage target here -20% 440 MT ca -2.5% pa If risk averse to environmental damage target here -30% 385 MT ca -3.5% pa 230 Mt deficit 50 Mt deficit If we wait to make real reductions at home, we run a large risk of having to finance a growing deficit in a rising market. Better to make real reductions now, commit to targeted reductions and purchase/sell any deficit/surplus carbon credits. Stimulate innovation

Not to decide to win..is to decide to fail! BAU defaults to societal, economic and environmental breakdown. A severe procrastination penalty But with Runaway Climate Change Societal, economic and environmental breakdown At least - 20% GDP loss New Sustainability Paradigm -1 to 2% GDP loss But possibly a gain in world GDP Keep on as Business As Usual (BAU) Work for Global Climate Treaty to stay below a 2 o C rise Deliberately IGNORE the climate challenge and try to “ACHIEVE ADVANTAGE” in a breakdown world