Global Energy Security and Geopolitics of Energy, 21 November 2008, Hilton Park, Nicosia Global Dialogue for Global Energy Security The Role of the IEF Rachid Boularas Senior Energy Analyst International Energy Forum

Global Energy Security and Geopolitics of Energy, 21 November 2008, Hilton Park, Nicosia  Main Global Energy Trends  Key Global Energy Challenges  IEF Role in Energy Dialogue  Concluding Remarks Outline

Global Energy Security and Geopolitics of Energy, 21 November 2008, Hilton Park, Nicosia Certainties  World Energy Demand Grows Significantly  Fossil Fuels Dominate the Energy-Mix  Increasing Interdependence Main Global Energy Trends

Global Energy Security and Geopolitics of Energy, 21 November 2008, Hilton Park, Nicosia World Primary Energy Demand Source IEA WEO 2008 ref scenario

Global Energy Security and Geopolitics of Energy, 21 November 2008, Hilton Park, Nicosia Inter Regional Oil and Gas Trade Source IEA WEO 2008 ref. sc Gas bcm/yOil mb/d

Global Energy Security and Geopolitics of Energy, 21 November 2008, Hilton Park, Nicosia  Availability: is there enough oil and gas resources to meet the growing demand?  Accessibility/deliverability: is there enough investment to deliver resources to the market, in a timely manner?  Affordability: what price levels are affordable to the world economy and in particular to DCs?  Acceptability/sustainability: is rising energy demand sustainable as regard to CO 2 emissions? Key Global Energy Challenges the four A’s

Global Energy Security and Geopolitics of Energy, 21 November 2008, Hilton Park, Nicosia Oil and Gas Proved Reserves trillion CM 107 trillion CM 1238 trillion Bls 910 trillion Bls GAS +65 % OIL +36 % Source BP Statistical Review June 2008

Global Energy Security and Geopolitics of Energy, 21 November 2008, Hilton Park, Nicosia Oil and Gas Proved Reserves 2008 Source BP Statistical Review June 2008

Global Energy Security and Geopolitics of Energy, 21 November 2008, Hilton Park, Nicosia Cumulative Oil & Gas Investment Source IEA WEO Total energy 26.3 tr $

Global Energy Security and Geopolitics of Energy, 21 November 2008, Hilton Park, Nicosia  The world economy response to high prices has changed over the years,  High level of price volatility impacts investment,  Interconnection between financial markets and oil market?  Affordability: a serious concern for poor net importing countries Is Energy Affordable?

Global Energy Security and Geopolitics of Energy, 21 November 2008, Hilton Park, Nicosia  Rising fossil fuels demand,  Rising CO2 emissions in any scenario,  CCS development and deployment : a viable solution for sustainability Sustainability

Global Energy Security and Geopolitics of Energy, 21 November 2008, Hilton Park, Nicosia IEF covers consuming & producing countries including those outside IEA and OPEC

Global Energy Security and Geopolitics of Energy, 21 November 2008, Hilton Park, Nicosia Mission of IEF Enhance and deepen global consumer-producer dialogue Promote more stable and transparent energy markets What ? High-level platforms involving governments and industry Practical ways to improve: (1) Market transparency in oil & gas (2) Investment conditions How?

Global Energy Security and Geopolitics of Energy, 21 November 2008, Hilton Park, Nicosia Joint Oil Data Initiative (JODI) Improve global oil market stability and predictability Support sound planning and enhance global energy security What ? Enhance international oil market transparency through exchange and release of monthly oil data at the global level How ?

Global Energy Security and Geopolitics of Energy, 21 November 2008, Hilton Park, Nicosia Investment Conditions Future share of biofuels and renewables Skillled labor shortages Stable regulatory and legal framework Unpacking uncertainties to facilitate timely decision making Sustained and enhanced global dialogue

Global Energy Security and Geopolitics of Energy, 21 November 2008, Hilton Park, Nicosia Enhancing Energy Security through global dialogue Biennual IEF and IEBF to promote global energy dialogue – 11 th IEF and 3 th IEBF – Rome, April 2008  Investment : Tackle key uncertainties ( stable regulation framework, skill shortage, energy policies, cost escalation, …)  Transparency: enhance energy markets transparency and stability ( Boost JODI and extend to gas)  Sustainability: boost energy efficiency and enhance development and deployment of CCS

Global Energy Security and Geopolitics of Energy, 21 November 2008, Hilton Park, Nicosia 12 th IEF and 4 th IEBF – Mexico, 2010 …. …..and other platforms for dialogue concrete actions  IEF-IGU Gas Ministerial Forum, 24 November 2008, Vienna, Austria,  IEF-IFP Symposium on role of technology in enhancing energy security, 15 December 2008, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia,  IEF Symposium on IOC-NOC cooperation and partnership, Kuwait City, Kuwait, first quarter 2009,  IEF Symposium on HR shortages, Doha, Qatar, April 2009

Global Energy Security and Geopolitics of Energy, 21 November 2008, Hilton Park, Nicosia 12 th IEF and 4 th IEBF – Mexico, 2010 …. …..and other platforms for dialogue Investigating key topics related to energy security  unpacking investment uncertainties,  assessing the potential/implications of biofuels,  …

Global Energy Security and Geopolitics of Energy, 21 November 2008, Hilton Park, Nicosia Concluding remarks  More oil and gas needed in coming decades,  Oil and gas resources available but…  Huge investment needed in the backdrop of large uncertainties,  Growing interdependence between energy producing and consuming countries,  Achieve results in improving investment, transparency and sustainability towards IEF Mexico 2010, IEF catalyst for action-oriented global energy dialogue

Global Energy Security and Geopolitics of Energy, 21 November 2008, Hilton Park, Nicosia International Energy Forum