Quantitative Decision Making 7 th ed By Lapin and Whisler.

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Presentation transcript:

Quantitative Decision Making 7 th ed By Lapin and Whisler

 Y t = T t ·C t ·S t ·I t  T t : The trend component  C t : The cyclic component  S t : The seasonal component  I t : The irregular component

1. Isolate trend and cyclical elements together. 2. Four-quarter moving averages

1. Add up the first four values in a time series, then divide by four. 2. Repeat this computation, but the initial quarter is dropped and the fifth is added. 3. Continue this process until you run out of new quarters.

YearQuarterDataFour Quarter Moving Average =( )/4 = =( )/4 = =( )/4 = =( )/4 = =( )/4 =

YearQuarterDataFour Quarter Moving Average/ Centered Moving Average =( )/4 = =( )/2 = =( )/4 = =( )/2 = =( )/4 = =( )/2 = =( )/4 = =( )/2 = =( )/4 =

YearQuarterData Four Quarter Moving Average/ Centered Moving Average Original as percentage of moving average =( )/4 = =( )/2 = =(54/63.375) x 100 =85.21 =( )/4 = =( )/2 = =(59/65.375) x 100 = =( )/4 = =( )/2 = =(86/67.125) x 100 = =( )/4 = =( )/2 = =(65/70.875) x 100 = =( )/4 =

Calculating Seasonal Indices YearQuarter Median Sum of Medians: Seasonal Index = Median x (400/399.44) Seasonal Indices

YearQuarterDataFour Quarter Moving Average/ Centered Moving Average Original as percentage of moving average Seasonal Indices =( )/4 = =( )/2 = =(54/63.375) x 100 = =( )/4 = =( )/2 = =(59/65.375) x 100 = =( )/4 = =( )/2 = =(86/67.125) x 100 = =( )/4 = =( )/2 = =(65/70.875) x 100 = =( )/4 =