“But China obscures” you say. I reply. “China obscures but there is clearness to be found; look for it” Pascal, Pensees

CHINA’S EMERGING SUPER POWER STATUS - IMPLICATIONS FOR INDIA

INTRODUCTION INDIA AND CHINA

INDIANS DO NOT HAVE A STRATEGIC CULTURE AND DO NOT THINK STRATEGICALLY. REPORT BY RAND CORPORATION (1996)

“China will emerge as a super power by 2015 AD and if so, what are implications for India and how to meet this Challenge” THE HYPOTHESIS

AIM TO EXAMINE EXACT STATUS OF CHINA AS A SUPER POWER BY 2015 AD AND ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR INDIA AND ARRIVE AT A SUITABLE STRATEGIC RESPONSE

SCOPE PART 1 - CHINA, A CURRENT PERSPECTIVE PART 2 - CHINA AND THE WORLD PART 3 - SINO INDIAN RELATIONS AND THE STRATEGIC DIVIDE PART 4 - VAIDATION OF THE HYPOTHESIS PART 5 - INDIA’S STRATEGIC RESPONSE CONCLUSION

PART 1 - CHINA, A CURRENT PERSPECTIVE BIRTH OF PEOPLES REPUBLIC OF CHINA

“ THE CHINESE PEOPLE HAVE STOOD UP. THEY WILL NEVER BE HUMILIATED. ” MAO ZEDONG

CHINESE PERSPECTIVE ON NATIONAL SECURITY 1.CHINESE SENSE OF IMPERMANENSE GONG (ASSENT) SHOU (DECLINE) 2.RELATIONSHIPS

3. COMPREHENSIVENESS. BAOGUO (PRESERVE THE STATE). BAOZHANG (PRESERVE THE RACE). BAOJIAO (PRESERVE CIVILISATION). BAOMIN (PRESERVE THE PEOPLE). 4. DETERMINISM. 5. STRONG STATE AND STRONG NATION.

ASSETS 1.LARGE LAND MASS. 2.VAST MANPOWER. 3.NATURAL RESOURCES. 4.PENINSULAR PROJECTION IN EAST AND SOUTH CHINA SEA. 5.NATURAL BARRIERS. CHINESE CRESCENT OF INFLUENCE

FOUR POINT MODERNISATION PROGRAMME INDUSTRY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY DEFENCE FORCES AGRICULTURE

SEVEN LARGEST ECONOMIES BY 2010 AD SEVEN LARGEST ECONOMIES BY 2010 AD USA -$ 7, 859 b JAPAN -$ 3, 714 b CHINA-$ 3, 791 b GERMANY-$ 1,525 b FRANCE-$ 1,410 b INDIA-$ 1, 330 b UK-$ 949 b

DEFENCE FORCES - FORCE COMPARISON USA RUSSIA JAPANCHINA INDIA TROOPS1.37 m 1.00 m.23 m2.48 m 1.1 m MBT APC ARTY SUBMARINES AC CARRIERS AC ICBM/SLBM (DS)

PLA MODERNISATION PROGRAMME DOWN SIZING. NEW EQUIPMENT. SU 30 FLANKERS AND SU 27 AC. SU 27 CARRIER BORNE AC. XIA CLASS NUCLEAR SUBMARINE WITH SLBMs. AC CARRIER.

PART 2 - CHINA AND THE WORLD * OVERVIEW. * SINO – US RELATIONS. * SINO – RUSSIA RELATIONS. * RELATIONS WITH EUROPEAN UNION. * TAIWAN FACTOR * CHINA PAK NEXUS. * RELATIONS WITH JAPAN. * COMMENTS.

PART 3 - SINO INDIAN RELATIONS AND THE STRATEGIC DIVIDE ç CHINA’S PERCEPTION OF INDIA. ç IMPLICATION ON INDIA’S SECURITY. ç FUTURE RELATIONS. ç THE STRATEGIC DIVIDE

PART 4 - VALIDATION OF HYPOTHESIS

CHINESE INTENTIONS SHORT TERM AIMS CONSOLIDATE THE NATION STATE. ENSURE UNHINDERED ECONOMIC PROGRESS. CREATE A SUPPORT BASE IN COMITY OF NATIONS. STRIVE FOR ECONOMIC AND TECHOLOGICAL PARITY. IMPROVE BILATERAL RELATIONS.

LONG TERM AIMS ACHIEVE PARITY WITH USA. CONTROL WORLD AND ASIAN AFFAIRS. RESOLVE BORDER DISPUTES. ENSURE CULTURAL, ETHNIC AND TERRITORIAL INTEGRITY.

AIMS AGAINST INDIA ENSURE ENCIRCLEMENT. FORCE PARITY BY PAKISTAN. BENIGN FRONT. PREVENT INDIA’S NUCLEAR POWER STATUS. COLLUSIVE SUPPORT FROM INDIA’S NEIGHBOURS. LIMITED TO FULL SCALE WAR.

CHINESE CAPABILITIES ECONOMY. TECHNOLOGY. DEFENCE FORCES.

“ It is only a matter of Time” Paul Kennedy (Rise and Fall of Great Powers)

PART 5 - INDIA’S STRATEGIC RESPONSE A GEOGRAPHICAL DISADVANTAGE. STRATEGIC ENCIRCLEMENT.

STRATEGIC RESPONSE NUCLEAR AND MISSILE DETERRENT. CONVENTIONAL FORCE PARITY. ENHANCE DEFENCE BUDGET. TRI-SERVICE DOCTRINE. INDIGENOUS R & D. DEVELOP ECONOMY. DIPLOMATIC INITIATIVES. IMPROVE INFRASTRUCTURE IN BORDER AREAS

STRATEGIC ENGAGEMENT

CONCLUSION

“ A man cannot be too careful, in the choice of his enemies” Oscar Wilde