WNA Fuel Market Report Part One - Demand James Nevling Manager Fuel Supply Projects, Exelon WNA Symposium Thursday 12 th September 2013.

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Presentation transcript:

WNA Fuel Market Report Part One - Demand James Nevling Manager Fuel Supply Projects, Exelon WNA Symposium Thursday 12 th September 2013

WNA Fuel Market Report - Demand James Nevling, Manager, Fuel Supply Projects, Exelon 2

WNA Fuel Market Report - Demand James Nevling, Manager, Fuel Supply Projects, Exelon WNA (formerly Uranium Institute) has published reports on the supply and demand of nuclear fuel since its foundation in 1975 The present report is the sixteenth in the series The report concentrates on the “front end” of the fuel cycle –describing the supply and demand of natural uranium, conversion, enrichment and fabrication WNA Market report is produced mainly for the members of the WNA but it is widely used by others with an interest in the industry The report is produced by a ‘Drafting Group’ which consists of members of the WNA representing all sectors of the fuel supply chain and the WNA secretariat The report is highly appreciated by all sectors as it is based on the knowledge and opinion of the whole industry 3 WNA Market Report

WNA Fuel Market Report - Demand James Nevling, Manager, Fuel Supply Projects, Exelon Joint chairs Sashi Davies – Extract Resources James Nevling – Exelon Chairs of supply subgroups Jose Aycart – GE-Hitachi Janet Baldwin – Advance Uranium Asset Management Lee Clanton – USEC Derek Gross – Cameco Rolf Kwasny – Nukem Veronika Milewski - EDF WNA Secretariat Ian Emsley Kenichiro Kitamura 4 Fuel Market Report Drafting Group

WNA Fuel Market Report - Demand James Nevling, Manager, Fuel Supply Projects, Exelon The report follows previous practice by using information provided by WNA members, representing all aspects of the fuel cycle globally Questionnaires were sent to utilities and suppliers (both members and non-members) to improve the knowledge base –The requested data included: For utilities: nuclear generation forecast, key parameters for reactor operation and fuel inventories For suppliers:Production forecast for existing facilities as well as the planned new facilities 5 Methodology

WNA Fuel Market Report - Demand James Nevling, Manager, Fuel Supply Projects, Exelon Determined by: Number and size of reactors in operation – nuclear generating capacity How they are run – load/capacity factors, enrichment level and burn-up Tails assay at the enrichment plant Spreadsheet based model 6 Demand for Nuclear Fuel

WNA Fuel Market Report - Demand James Nevling, Manager, Fuel Supply Projects, Exelon Three demand scenarios: Reference case Upper case Lower case Generic assumptions underlie each scenario – nuclear economics public acceptance impact of climate change debate electricity market structure 7 WNA Scenario Approach

WNA Fuel Market Report - Demand James Nevling, Manager, Fuel Supply Projects, Exelon Reference Scenario: Improvements occur in the relative economics of nuclear power Concerns about global warming continue Gradual restructuring and liberalisation of electricity sector continue The Fukushima accident has an impact in some countries, but most continue with their previous plans Public acceptance problems for nuclear projects begin to diminish Lower and Upper Scenarios: Roughly the other extremes of the above 8 Generic Assumptions

WNA Fuel Market Report - Demand James Nevling, Manager, Fuel Supply Projects, Exelon Essentially an economic decision – relative price of U and SWU Optimal tails assay -0.30%-0.35% until , now below 0.25% 2013 Market Report -0.22% for all reactors Held constant with 2011 Market Report 9 Importance of the Tails Assay

WNA Fuel Market Report - Demand James Nevling, Manager, Fuel Supply Projects, Exelon China Japan India Other developing countries (UAE, Turkey, Saudi Arabia) 10 Key Countries

WNA Fuel Market Report - Demand James Nevling, Manager, Fuel Supply Projects, Exelon 11 Assessment of Likely Japanese Reactor Restarts 2013 vs 2011 Report Reactor-by-reactor assessment: Age Size Type Location

WNA Fuel Market Report - Demand James Nevling, Manager, Fuel Supply Projects, Exelon operatingseriousemerging Reference Case Capacity Net GWe (2013 to 2030)

WNA Fuel Market Report - Demand James Nevling, Manager, Fuel Supply Projects, Exelon 13 World Nuclear Generating Capacity, GWe 2013 vs 2011 Fuel Market Report

WNA Fuel Market Report - Demand James Nevling, Manager, Fuel Supply Projects, Exelon 14 World Enrichment Requirements, 000’s SWU