PACS 4500 Senior Seminar in Peace and Conflict Studies Guy Burgess Co-Director Conflict Information Consortium, University of Colorado UCB 580, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO , (303) Copyright © 2014 Guy Burgess and Heidi Burgess

Due Dates Project Topic Questions Reading Reflections #1 Due Date: 8am Sat Feb 7

Accessing Comments

Authentication pacs4500

Substitute You PACS ID Code Identikey plus 4 digit number that was ed to you.

Comments

Sunset Laws / Consumer Counsels

Legal Assistance 015/01/31/civil-legal- assistance-saves- money-helps-people- escape-poverty/

The New Culture Wars 11e4-9f a573f8_story.html?hpid=z3

Refugees

Beyond the Invisible Fist A Very Large-Scale Strategy for Promoting More Constructive Forms of Competition and Conflict Escaping the Cycle of Conflict Guy Burgess & Heidi Burgess Co-Directors Conflict Information Consortium, University of Colorado UCB 580, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO , (303) , Copyright © 2015 Guy Burgess and Heidi Burgess

Conflict Stages (Resolution Model)

USIP Stages Michael S. Lund, Preventing Violent Conflicts: A Strategy for Preventive Diplomacy (Washington, DC: United States Institute of Peace Press, 1996), p. 38.

Synonyms (Sort of)  Peacebuilding  SSTR– Security, Stabilization, Transition, and Reconstruction  Reconciliation  Conflict Transformation

Questioning the Stage Model Michael S. Lund, Preventing Violent Conflicts: A Strategy for Preventive Diplomacy (Washington, DC: United States Institute of Peace Press, 1996), p. 38. ?

Conflict Stages (Victory Model) Defeat of One Side Repression and Latent Hostility

Conflict as a Breaking Wave You have to deal with all stages simultaneously /04/randallpaulson_eb_mld4809_1.jpg

Conflict Cycle

Conflict Escape Opportunity The “best” and sometimes the last* opportunity for peace. * For a long, long time.

Peace-Making, -Keeping Takeoff Point /imagecache/a_scale_large/200- 7/photos/ peacekeepers-in- sudan262607_ jpg

Preventing Conflict Reemergence  Breaking wave map with exit option

Peter Coleman Attractors

Post-Conflict Resolution and Reconciliation: Making It Work ?

Escape Velocity ajectory.png

Multi-Stage Rocket Metaphor  Stage I: Peacemaking, peacekeeping Post-Conflict Resolution, Reconciliation, and Peacebuilding  Stage II: Retrospective reconciliation  Stage III: Prospective positive vision  Stage IV: P rospective governance  Stage V: Prospective “invisible hand” (private- sector) interactions

Trauma Recovery Metaphor urriculum/public_services/mountain_rescue _images/gallery_photos/image_02.jpg ndowsLiveWriter/Whatwasthereferencetoth emountainrescuehe_11508/074_74_thumb.jpg mergency- Department/emergency.aspx?width=300&h eight=225 pt.net/images/physical_therapy.png

Ecological Succession es-photos/fireweed-yukon-17b-8169.jpg mages/ImagesPictures/AspenForest1.jpg ee/pinconl/crownfire.jpg ls/RockyMountainNationalParkBoulderBroo ktoGlacierGorge73584.jpeg

Societal Injuries Much More Complex o-SYRIA-WAR-facebook.jpg

Purposeful Problem-Solving Biological, Social Evolution Formal Informal

The Goal: Build “Invisible Hand” NOT “Invisible Fist” Societies Invisible Hand Invisible Fist The Invisible Hand/Fist Continuum

Goal: Limit Two Threats Posed by the “Invisible Fist”  Type I “Power Over” efforts of tyrants, plutocrats and wannabes to dominate and oppress others  Type II The inability of those pursuing an equitable “Power With” vision of society to navigate the many Destructive Conflict Dynamics that threaten such efforts.

Goal: Constructive Conflict "War is the continuation of diplomacy (peaceful approaches to conflict) by other means." "Peace is the continuation of war (violent approaches to conflict) by other means." Inverted Clausewitz

Goal: Not Kumbaya “Resolution” “End of History”Utopia

Tough Problems Machiavellian Spoilers Tyrant Wannabes

Tough Problems CONF 756 The Crane Brinton Effect

Tough Problems Tragedy of the Commons

Tough Problems Side A Side B Compromisers Side A FightersSide B Fighters Swing People CONF 756 Attacking the Compromisers

Have/Have-Not Complexity Problems at the Top Natural Selection New Class Differences Superstar Effect Money Addiction Boundless Greed Rationalization Zero-Sum Thinking Concentration of Wealth Discrimination Problems at the Bottom Family Disintegration Withdrawal from the Workforce Low Educational Expectations Scarcity Thinking Crime Estimate the Percentage of “Explained Variance” associated with each factor. Systemic Problems Prison Industrial Complex Poverty Capitalism Cheating Advantages Automation Technological Advance Kludgeocracy Employer's Market (Fear Economy) Lack of Compassion Underperforming Schools Tax Structure Red Tape Regulations

Think Before You March I charlie-hebdo-islamist-terrorism/ Things to think about: Are you magnifying the importance of an attack? Is political opportunism influencing the response? Is there a “terrorism industrial complex” at play? Is an overly harsh response likely to drive the backlash effect and increase rather than decrease terrorism? Is the response likely to increase rather than decrease intergroup hostility? Are you failing to put the terrorism risk in proper perspective with other risks? Are we recognizing the many ways in which our actions have understandably contributed to hostility against the West? Are we being morally consistent in condemning acts of terror committed by our friends? Wes and Mark Wes and Mark

Think Before You March II charlie-hebdo-islamist-terrorism/ Accept that we are playing the long game of containment, Recognize that the heart of the struggle is elsewhere, Offer the lived idea of equality as citizens as an alternative to violent jihad, Address the frustrations that marginalized populations feel Accept the need for security measures while recognizing they never ensure completely safety, Remain true to our ideals (rule of law, no torture, etc.). Stop trying to engage in regime change and/or social engineering in the Arab and Islamic worlds, Stop using force there in an inconsistent and often indiscriminate fashion.

Conflict Mapping I Exercise  Place the principle adversary parties on the map arranged in conflict clusters.  Map complaints/conflicts Type I  Assess legitimacy of complaints based on compassionate values  That which is hurtful to you, do not do to others.  Map principal confrontations (disputes) associated with each complaint  Assess the destructiveness of each confrontation Type II