Mwangi wa Gĩthĩnji University of Massachusetts-Amherst African Economic Conference Addis Ababa November 2009

 Overview of Trade History between the Gulf Arab States and Africa  Role of Trade in Industrialization  Examining Sophistication of exports between Gulf and Africa  Considering the future

 Tran-Saharan Trade  Sudanic Empires  Hajj of Mansa Musa  “Here in Timbuktu’ he noted, ‘there is a big market for manuscript books from the Berber countries, and more profit is made from the sale of books than any other merchandise.’ ”

 East Coast Trade  City States  Shift of Omani Capital  Inability of Portuguese to continue  Can trade today have the same transformative impact?

Cote D’Ivoire South Korea

AFRICAGULF STATES GDP per Capita (PPP) 2005$3459$39756 Range$267- $28536$20350-$ Annual Growth per capita Range-5.5 to to 4 Population915 Million33 Million Range0.08M to 149M0.7M-23M Immigrants (% of Population)3.452 Range0 to

COUNTRY1980 (Millions of $) % OF TOTAL EXPORTS 2005 (Millions of $) % OF TOTAL EXPORTS BAHRAIN$ $740.7 KUWAIT$2251.1$890.3 OMAN$ $ QATAR$$ SAUDI ARABIA$ $ UAE$262.48$ TOTAL$1726$13566 TOTAL (REAL TERMS-2000) $2806$11009 AS % OF TOTAL AFRICAN IMPORTS 5.06

COUNTRY1980 (Millions of $) % OF TOTAL IMPORTS 2005 (Millions of $) % OF TOTAL GULF IMPORTS BAHRAIN$ $610.7 KUWAIT$310.47$ OMAN$160.97$650.7 QATAR$90.7$940.9 SAUDI ARABIA$5081.7$ UAE$290.36$ TOTAL$601$3698 TOTAL (REAL TERMS-2000) $977$3001 AS % of TOTAL AFRICAN EXPORTS TO THE WORLD 2%

EXPORTS$1726$13566 IMPORTS$601$3698 TRADE BALANCE$1125$9868 TRADE BALANCE (REAL TERMS-2000) $1829$ 8009

AFRICAN EXPORTSGULF EXPORTS COUNTRY% OF AFRICAN EXPORTS EGYPT34 SOUTH AFRICA30 ZAMBIA6 SUDAN5 MOROCCO4 SOMALIA3 ETHIOPIA3 TANZANIA3 TUNISIA3 LIBYA2 KENYA2 COUNTRY% OF AFRICAN IMPORTS SOUTH AFRICA25 EGYPT19 MOROCCO10 SUDAN7 DJIBOUTI6 KENYA6 LIBYA4 TANZANIA4 ALGERIA3 NIGERIA2 SOMALIA2

COUNTRY$ (Millions) SOUTH AFRICA2209 EGYPT1304 MOROCCO1265 SUDAN759 DJIBOUTI856 KENYA756 LIBYA513 TANZANIA447 ALGERIA421 NIGERIA245 SOMALIA141 ETHIOPIA42 TUNISIA56 ZAMBIA-192

 Sophistication of Exports and Development  Relationship between labor costs and sophistication  Lall Measures  Sophistication Index  Sophistication Groups

GROUPNAME/DESCRIPTION 1 PRIMARY PRODUCTS –NO PROCESSING 2 RESOURCE BASED MANUFACTURE -AGRICULTURE 3 RESOURCE BASED MANUFACTURE-OTHER 4 TEXTILES GARMENTS AND FOOTWEAR 5 OTHER LOW TECH 6 MEDIUM TECH - AUTOMOTIVE 7 MEDIUM TECH PROCESS INDUSTRIES – SYNTHETIC FIBRES,PLASTICS, PAINTS ETC 8 MEDIUM TECH ENGINEERING INDUSTRIES – ENGINES, INDUSTRIAL MACHINERY ETC. 9 HIGH TECH MANUFACTURES - ELECTRONICS AND ELECTRICAL PRODUCTS 10 OTHER HIGH TECH- PHARMACEUTICALS, AEROSPACE, OPTICAL MEASURING INSTRUMENTS

LOW TECHNOLOGY EXPORTS GROUPS 1-5 HIGH TECHNOLOGY EXPORTS GROUPS 6-10

NAME/DESCRIPTION WORLD PRIMARY PRODUCTS –NO PROCESSING RESOURCE BASED MANUFACTURE -AGRICULTURE RESOURCE BASED MANUFACTURE-OTHER TEXTILES GARMENTS AND FOOTWEAR OTHER LOW TECH MEDIUM TECH - AUTOMOTIVE MEDIUM TECH PROCESS INDUSTRIES – SYNTHETIC FIBRES,PLASTICS, PAINTS ETC MEDIUM TECH ENGINEERING INDUSTRIES – ENGINES, INDUSTRIAL MACHINERY ETC HIGH TECH MANUFACTURES - ELECTRONICS AND ELECTRICAL PRODUCTS OTHER HIGH TECH- PHARMACEUTICALS, AEROSPACE, OPTICAL MEASURING INSTRUMENTS

NAME/DESCRIPTION (without South Africa) 2005 WORLD PRIMARY PRODUCTS –NO PROCESSING RESOURCE BASED MANUFACTURE - AGRICULTURE RESOURCE BASED MANUFACTURE-OTHER TEXTILES GARMENTS AND FOOTWEAR OTHER LOW TECH MEDIUM TECH - AUTOMOTIVE MEDIUM TECH PROCESS INDUSTRIES – SYNTHETIC FIBRES,PLASTICS, PAINTS ETC MEDIUM TECH ENGINEERING INDUSTRIES – ENGINES, INDUSTRIAL MACHINERY ETC HIGH TECH MANUFACTURES - ELECTRONICS AND ELECTRICAL PRODUCTS OTHER HIGH TECH- PHARMACEUTICALS, AEROSPACE, OPTICAL MEASURING INSTRUMENTS

 Proportion of trade small but increasing  Balance of trade in favor of the Gulf countries  Trade dominated by geographic and cultural ties  Trade has changed over time from primary products to more sophisticated products  Gulf has gone up the ladder further relative to its exports to the rest of the world. African countries have improved but not as much as Gulf  Increased Diversification of trade good  Geographically  In terms of goods

 The fact that on average exports from both regions to each other are more sophisticated compared to their exports to the world suggests that companies are competitive in the region:  Proximity  Cultural/Religious Ties  Privileged Market Access  Further examination at industry level-whether these exports leading to industrialization./other regions as well.  Human Capital and Remittances  African/Country Specific strategic plans for engaging Gulf- presently trade does not seem to be driven by policy initiatives

Thank you! TO AIRPLANE