Items and actions  Modifications to current forecasts  Website and data  Research into future forecasts  Organization and implementation

Summer 2009

Modification to current forecasts  Replace deterministic forecast 3-category probabilistic shading + contouring calibrate shading limits and “no forecast” skill measures aesthetics and website  Canada map + skill is 1 st order with links: 3 category full probabalistic skill measures data …..

Other approaches

Proposal (see also Kharin report)  calibrate  shade > 40% no shade => “no forecast” or “other”  map over Canadian region no pole no US  only 1 shading bar (see examples)  add skill map  links to full probability forecasts skill scores data mean and 

SK example

Details  Calibrate using Kharin method  Shade above 40%  no-shade = “no-forecast” or “other”  attach skill measure (eg. % correct)  links to: full probability forecasts other skill measures past forecasts etc., but better web design

Website and data  monthly, seasonal forecasts mislabelled under “modelling and analysis” need button on weatheroffice page which at least indicates “extended forecasts”  Actions inform Chas Lin, D. Whelpdale, and others.. set up Website Task Force Monthly and Seasonal forecasts

Website design: Forecasts hard to find (at best)

Website task force  set up task force for Monthly and Seasonal Forecast section of website  propose a (re) design of MSF section separate section for MSF – “new” forecast on main page cleaner look, hierarchy of links to:  3-panel probability forecasts  verification information  up to date explanatory information  data  etc.  produce an explicit proposal for MSF section including review process to keep up to date  set time limits for design/proposal  lobby and demand/promote action

Data hard to find/out of date

Forecast data task force  mechanism to keep forecast data up to date  link to explanatory material on HFP2  provide additional information basic statistics, mean and  other variables for applications  energy  agriculture focus for interaction with data users

Other forecasts  HFP2+ and CMC seasonal forecast evolution extend HFP2 to present add additional forecast models (AGCM4, CHFP1, …)  Subseasonal CCCma participation  initially in Bin Wang intercomparison CCCma/RPN “research plan”, resources  GLACE2/GOAPP surface initialization effects part of GOAPP in conjunction with GUELPH GLACE2 intercomparison

CHIP2  CHFP = HFP but 1-tier, coupled multi- season forecast project  GOAPP Theme II project  contribution to WGSIP “Climate-system Intercomparison Project” i.e. their CHFP  basis for WGDIP/WGCM/CMIP5 decadal climate forecasts  how do we plan for and exploit CHFP?

CHFP/coupled forecasting task force  document and summarize: international and Canadian approaches planning for research and operations  path to operations  melding with current CMC monthly/seasonal forecasts  outputs and multi-seasonal skill  ice forecasting  treatment on website  data availability international aspects  supplying of forecasts to APCC  accessing and combining with other forecasts  contribution to WGSIP CHFP

Other items  EC Resources for SIP initial 1+1 “shared” personnel for SIP concentrated at RPN and CMC at minimum need similar at CCCma  CFCAS/external resources 1-year no-cost extension means some GOAPP effort to continue for a few months prospect for CFCAS replacement seems dim  GOAPP report/meeting with EC and DFO – opportunity to stress: activities in other G8 countries compared to Canada amazing leveraged results with micro-resources need for EC resources to continue progress  computing  highly trained personnel, one of the outputs of GOAPP international efforts in SIP and applications of short term climate predictions