CES and LAUS: Advanced Current Employment Statistics Local Area Unemployment Statistics

CES: CHANGES & DATA CODE STRUCTURE, SIC TO NAICS DATA REVISIONS MSA DEFINITIONS SAMPLE AND ESTIMATION METHODS

CES DATA INDUSTRY CODE CHANGES ARE SMOOTHED CES IS A TRUE TIME SERIES THERE HAS BEEN A HISTORICAL RECONSTRUCTION OF NAICS DATA BACK TO 1990

CES DATA: REVISIONS CES DATA IS REVISED MONTHLY (ONCE) AND ANNUALY (TWICE) THE MONTHLY REVISION, BASED ON A MORE COMPLETE SAMPLE COLLECTION, IS PUBLISHED WITH THE FOLLOWING MONTHS DATA RELEASE

CES DATA: REVISIONS IN THE ANNUAL BENCHMARK PROCESS THE PREVIOUS YEARS DATA IS REPLACED BY ADJUSTED QCEW (TAX RECORD) DATA THROUGH THE BENCHMARK MONTH AND THE BALANCE OF THE YEAR IS RE-ESTIMATED AT THE SAME TIME, THE DATA FOR THE SECOND YEAR PREVIOUS IS COMPLETELY REPLACED BY ADJUSTED QCEW DATA

MSA CHANGES: COLORADO SPRINGS PresentAdditions

MSA CHANGES: DENVER PRESENT ADDITIONS

CES: SAMPLING THE BASIC SAMPLE UNIT IS THE UEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE (UI) ACCOUNT MULTIPLE WORKPLACE ENITIES ARE INCLUDED IN THE UI ACCOUNT THERE ARE ADJUSTMENTS FOR BIRTH/DEATH

CES: SAMPLING CES HAS CHANGED SAMPLING AND ESTIMATION METHODS. OLD METHOD: QUOTA NON-RESPONSE PROBLEMS WERE ADDRESSED BY FREE SUBSTITUTION, INTRODUCING BIAS. BIRTH/DEATH ADJUSTMENT WAS MULTIPLICTIVE.

CES: SAMPLING NEW METHOD: PROBABILITY RANDOM SAMPLE SELECTION. WEIGHTED ESTIMATORS CAN BE USED. CONFIDENCE INTERVALS CAN BE ESTABLISHED. IMPROVED MONITORING OF ACTUAL ECONOMIC CONDITIONS.

CES: MODEL OLD METHOD: CURRENT LINK RELATIVE L = aec/aep Where: aec = all employment for current month's current matched sample aep = total ae for previous month's current matched sample.

CES: MODEL EXAMPLE A SAMPLE OF 3 MEMBERS WITH DIFFERENT EMPLOYMENT SIZES: COMPANY ‘x’ HAS 10 WORKERS THIS MONTH, LAST MONTH 9. THERE ARE 10 COMPANIES THIS SIZE IN THE STATE COMPANY ‘y’ HAS 100 NOW, 99 LAST MONTH. THERE ARE 5 THIS SIZE COMPANY ‘z’ HAS 500 BOTH MONTHS. IT’S THE ONLY COMPANY THIS SIZE THERE ARE 10,000 EMPLOYEES IN THE INDUSTRY STATEWIDE

CES: MODEL EXAMPLE OLD THE CURRENT LINK WOULD BE: L = ( x + y + z )now/(x + y + z)last L = ( ) / ( ) L = LINK IS STABLIZED BY COMPANY z, THE ONLY COMPANY ITS SIZE

CES: MODEL OLD MODEL - APPLY LINK TO GET THE EMPLOYMENT ESTIMATE: AEc = (L)(Fc) (AEp) Where: AEc = AE estimate for current month AEp = AE estimate for previous month L = current link relative Fc = bias adjustment factor for current month

CES: MODEL EXAMPLE OLD LET THE AEp = 10,000 LET THE ADJUSTMENT FOR BIAS, Fc = THE ESTIMATE WOULD BE: AEc = (L)(Fc)(AEp) AEc = (1.0033)(1.001)(10,000) AEc = 1043 THE BIAS ADJUSTMENT INTERACTS WITH THE LINK

CES: MODEL NEW MODEL; WEIGHTED LINK RELATIVE AEc = AEp ((Σ(w * ae c )/(Σ(w*ae p )) + (BIRTH/DEATH FACTOR) WHERE w IS THE WEIGHT OF A INDIVIDUAL SAMPLE MEMBER ae c IS THAT MEMBER’S CURRENT EMPLOYMENT ae p IS THE PREVIOUS MONTHS EMPLOYMENT THE B/D FACTOR IS A SEPARATE BLS ESTIMATE

CES: MODEL EXAMPLE NEW USING THE SAME COMPANIES, AND A B/D FACTOR OF 10 THE WEIGHTS ARE DETERMINED BY THE NUMBER OF COMPANIES OF A GIVEN SIZE IN THE INDUSTRY BEING SAMPLED COMPANY x HAS WEIGHT, w = 10 COMPANY y HAS w = 5 COMPANY z HAS w = 1

CES: MODEL EXAMPLE NEW USING THE SAME DATA AS IN THE OLD EXAMPLE THE NEW ESTIMATE IS: AEc = AEp ((Σ(w * ae c )/(Σ(w*ae p )) + (BIRTH/DEATH FACTOR) AEc = 10,000 (((10 * 10) + (5 * 100) + (1 * 500))/((10 * 9) + (5 * 99) + (1 * 500))) + 10 AEc = 10,000 * AEc = = 10148

CES: MODEL EXAMPLE NEW vs OLD THE OLD ESTIMATE WAS 10,043 THE NEW MODEL ESTIMATE IS 10,148 THE DIFFERENCE IS THE IMPACT OF SMALLER BUSINESS ON THE LINK IF THE ESTIMATING CELL HAS LARGER EMPLOYMENT OR A GREATER LINK, THE OLD BIAS ADJUSTMENT FACTOR HAS A LARGER IMPACT

CES: MODEL WHY THE CHANGES? THE NEW SAMPLE IS MORE REPRESENATIVE AND RESPONSIVE THE WEIGHTED SAMPLE GIVES MORE MODEL IMPACT TO SMALL BUSINESS THE BIRTH/DEATH ADJUSTMENT IS ADDITIVE SO ITS NOT SCALED TO MONTHLY RESULT

CES DATA LIMITATIONS Limited by area Limited by industry detail The results are designed to track direction as the primary item of interest The absolute measure of level is the secondary item of interest, but this is addressed by Benchmarking the data No demographic data is published