Meteorology From Common sense to Computer Science. How Computers and Mathematics changed weather forecasts and what it it means for us?
The Early Instruments
The Radiosonde, is a unit used in weather balloons to measure various atmospheric values. developed in the late late 19 th century. The development of the Radiosonde provided vital information for the Numerical weather prediction calculations.
Early forecasting People were able to observe certain atmospheric patterns and conditions. Such as cloud formations, Surface wind directions and intensity. People were able to make close predictions based on their experiences. They used analog techniques and models
Weather Prediction by a Numerical Process First proposed by a Norwegian Scientist Vilhelm Bjerknes in In 1922, Richard Lewis Fry published “Weather Prediction by Numerical Process” Although the method was plausible the the sheer number of parameters and the length of the calculations were too large to calculate without computers.
The first use of computers in Weather forecasting In the 1950’s the use of computers in the field became feasible. A team led by mathematician John von Neumann made the first computerized weather forecast, with Neumann publishing the paper Numerical Integration of the Barotropic Vorticity Equation in 1950 The practical application of Computerized Weather forecast began 1955, spurred by the creation of programmable electronic computers.
Basics of Numerical Weather prediction and Chaos theory. The basic idea behind Numerical Weather Prediction methods is take the state of a fluid at a given time and calculate its future condition within the mathematical model. The Chaotic nature of the Atmospheric system was discovered in the 1960’s, and mathematically described by Edward Lorentz, who founded the field of chaos theory These discoveries led to the development of the Ensemble Forecasting Method commonly used today.
The Ensemble Forecasting Uses a numerical algorithm to determine the future state of Dynamical system given a set of starting values which are all plausible given the chaotic nature of the weather system. Scientist take into account a certain amount uncertainty caused by 1. The imperfect initial conditions amplified by the chaotic property of the atmosphere 2. The error introduced due to imperfect mathematical formulation and approximation.
Modern Meteorology Today meteorology is worldwide multi- million dollar industry with the use of many media outlet such as the local TV stations and Online sources. All thanks to technological advances Meteorologist use many advanced technologies such as GPS tracking, sounding rockets, and satellite imagery to deliver the most accurate and up to date information.
What does this mean for the aviation industry The commercial aviation industry relies heavily of accurate weather information. For safety of operation and flight planning The FAA and the ICAO (International Civil Aviation Organization) has commissioned one of the most comprehensive weather report and forecast systems. The use of Automated weather reporting systems and online outlets such a and enable pilots to receive the most timely information without a hassle.