SCWMDT 13-05: Topic 3 (1)Should the international community secure Syrian Chemical Weapons? (2) What could have been done to prevent the Syrian Chemical Weapons program in the first place?

Background 1980s—Syria started chemical weapons program (Mustard, Sarin and Vx) – Strategic parity with Israel – Not signatories to Chemical Weapons Convention 2011—Civil unrest begins as part of Arab spring 2012—Full scale civil war Associations with Iran, Hizballah, Al-Qaeda and Hamas

YES The government is unable to secure its chemical weapons High Risk Assessment that non-state actor could obtain Syrian Chemical weapons which could impact regional/international security Syrian government uses chemical weapons on it’s people or demonstrates intent to use chemical weapons on it’s people Syria is a sovereign state; signatory to UN Charter Civil conflict that international community has no current international legal authority to intervene (example: no UN security council resolution) To date, Syria has not used chemical weapons on it’s people Other options are still available: Increase neighboring countries boarder security and monitoring efforts Locations and scope of chemical weapons program is unknown NO ? Should the International Community secure Syrian chemical weapons?

Way ahead: NO Approve security council resolution outlining requirements the Syrian Government Must comply under Chapter 7 to demonstrate it can secure chemical weapons Provide sufficient security for chemical weapons program Disclose the size and scope of chemical weapons program Allow inspectors to verify the security of chemical weapons program Agreement not to use chemical weapons against its populace or other countries YES : If Syrian does not meet UNSCR resolution within immediate timeframe (less than 30 days from approval of UNSCR) RECOMMENDATION: It Depends!

What could have done to prevent Syrian chemical weapons program? Enforcement of UNSC resolutions outlawing proliferation of WMD Disrupt Syrian chemical weapon program pathways Increase intelligence collection to support international action

What could have done to prevent Syrian chemical weapons program? International influence to sign Chemical Weapons Convention Address Syria’s need to have chemical weapons Increase surrounding nations ability for consequence management

What could have done to prevent Syrian chemical weapons program? Q&A