An Historical Analysis of Transient Rain Bearing Systems in the NAME Domain: The Impact of Inverted Troughs on Monsoon Rainfall Art Douglas and Phil Englehart.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

The effect of mid-latitude SST on East African summer rains Gulilat Tefera Diro, David Grimes and Emily Black Africa group meeting- February 25, 2008.

Advertisements

AGENZIA REGIONALE PER LA PROTEZIONE DELLAMBIENTE DELLA SARDEGNA ARPAS Andrea Motroni Climate, climate change and desertification.

“Traditional” terminology

Flash Flood Climatology for the Goodland County Warning Area 13 th High Plains Conference August 27, 2009.

El Niño & La Niña.

The North American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 24 September 2012.

Summer Dust Storms In Phoenix Updated Station Climatology and Pattern Classifications Craig Shoemaker NWS WFO Tucson Jeffrey T. Davis NWS WFO Tucson.

Tropical Cyclone Forecasts Dr. Richard J. Murnane Risk Prediction Initiative Bermuda Biological Station for Research, Inc.

Heartland Conference on Climate Change Chicago May Indian Monsoon Variability & Global Warming Madhav Khandekar CANADA Expert Reviewer IPCC.

NATS 101 Lecture 19 Monsoons. Supplemental References for Today’s Lecture Aguado, E. and J. E. Burt, 2001: Understanding Weather & Climate, 2 nd Ed. 505.

Climate Variability and Change: Introduction Image from NASA’s Terra satellite Temperature anomalies for July 2010.

Upper-level Mesoscale Disturbances on the Periphery of Closed Anticyclones Thomas J. Galarneau, Jr. and Lance F. Bosart University at Albany, State University.

The Contribution of Eastern North Pacific Tropical Cyclones to the Warm Season Rainfall Climatology of the Southwest US Kristen L. Corbosiero (UCLA) Michael.

WEST AFRICAN STORM TRACKS AND THEIR RELATIONSHIP WITH ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONES Susanna Hopsch Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences University.

A Diagnostic Analysis of a Difficult- to-Forecast Cutoff Cyclone from the 2008 Warm Season Matthew A. Scalora, Lance F. Bosart, Daniel Keyser Department.

Anomalous Summer Precipitation over New Mexico during 2006: Natural Variability or Climate Change? Shawn Bennett, Deirdre Kann and Ed Polasko NWS Albuquerque.

Reasons for the Unusually Destructive 2004 Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season Phil Klotzbach and William Gray Department of Atmospheric Science Colorado State.

Seasonal outlook of the East Asian Summer in 2015 Motoaki Takekawa Tokyo Climate Center Japan Meteorological Agency May th FOCRAII 1.

The North American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 05 August 2013.

The North American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 27 August 2013.

Where Do the Hurricanes Come From?. Introduction A tropical cyclone is a rapidly- rotating storm system characterized by a low-pressure center, strong.

The Likely Return of El Niño Implications for the 2014 Arizona Monsoon Season & Beyond Daniel Henz Meteorologist, Flood Warning Branch Flood Control District.

2015 Monsoon Season Outlook Daniel Henz Meteorologist Flood Warning Branch Flood Warning Users Workshop June 24, 2015 Phoenix, Arizona Monsoon t-storm.

India summer monsoon rainfall in ECMWF Sys3 – ICTP, August Indian summer monsoon rainfall in the ECMWF seasonal fc. System-3: predictability and.

The Caribbean Low Level Jet variability during August and September and its relation with the regional hydroclimate Ernesto Muñoz.

The African Monsoon Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 09 AUGUST 2010 For more information, visit:

2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast WeatherBug Forecast April 15, 2010 Hurricane Bill, NOAA.

Major Climate Anomalies during 2005 Gerry Bell Presented by Vernon Kousky Climate Prediction Center/ NOAA/ NWS National Centers for Environmental Prediction.

1. Global monsoon features Australian monsoon South American monsoon North American monsoon African monsoon Asian monsoon 2. Northern China winter drought.

PAGASA-DOST Presscon - 04 October 2010 Amihan Conference Room.

Seasonal Moisture Flux Variability over North America in NASA/NSIPP’s AMIP Simulation and Atmospheric Reanalysis By Alfredo Ruiz-Barradas and Sumant Nigam.

Climate Change in the Yaqui Valley David Battisti University of Washington 1.Climatological Annual Cycle –Winter vs. Summer 2.Variability(Winter) –ENSO.

The African Monsoon Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 6 December 2010 For more information, visit:

The African Monsoon Recent Evolution and Current Status Include Week-1 and Week-2 Outlooks Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 10 January.

El Nino Teleconnections Philip Kreycik EPS 131 4/30/04.

July 25, 2001 presents “Past, Present, and Future” Ed Kieser.

Stephen W. Bieda III, Steven L. Mullen, Christopher L. Castro University of Arizona Department of Atmospheric Sciences.

The African Monsoon Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 15 November 2010 For more information, visit:

The African Monsoon Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 07 July 2008 For more information, visit:

Ensemble variability in rainfall forecasts of Hurricane Irene (2011) Molly Smith, Ryan Torn, Kristen Corbosiero, and Philip Pegion NWS Focal Points: Steve.

Meteorological Overview for SEAC4RS Character and evolution of circulation during the experiment. – How is it different from an “average year”, how significant.

The African Monsoon Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 13 April 2009 For more information, visit:

The African Monsoon Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 6 July 2010 For more information, visit:

1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP December 12,

North Carolina Climate

Inter-annual Variation of Southwest Monsoon and ENSO in Thailand.

The African Monsoon Recent Evolution and Current Status Include Week-1 and Week-2 Outlooks Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 31 May 2011.

By D. Jordan MONSOONS.  A seasonal prevailing wind in the region of South and Southeast Asia, blowing from the southwest between May and September and.

Climatological Aspects of Freezing Rain in the Eastern U.S. Christopher M. Castellano, Lance F. Bosart, and Daniel Keyser Department of Atmospheric and.

The African Monsoon Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 4 October 2010 For more information, visit:

Between November and April Antananarivo (Madagascars largest city) receives 55.1 in of rain. I would have thought there would have been more but the facts.

© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 6 Air-Sea Interaction.

The African Monsoon Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 13 September 2010 For more information, visit:

The Active 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season Links to Known Climate Factors Gerry Bell NOAA Lead Seasonal Hurricane Forecaster Climate Prediction Center.

Acknowledgment: Trinh Tuan Long for TC movie and tracks Interannual variability of heavy rainfall over Central Vietnam Kim Nguyen, Jack Katzfey and John.

Hemispheric Evolution and Origin of Extra-tropical Cyclone Errors Within NCEP Operational Models Brian A. Colle 1 and Michael Charles 1,2 1 School of Marine.

Climate Outlook (MAY – SEPTEMBER 2017) JOSEPH BASCONCILLO

Jon Gottschalck NOAA / NWS / Climate Prediction Center

Forecast Outlook for the

Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Science

Q2 What kinds of information can you get from a weather map?

José J. Hernández Ayala Department of Geography University of Florida

NATS 101 Lecture 19 Monsoons.

700mb HEIGHT ANOMALIES (6/21 - 8/31) 2003 EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC TROPICAL STORM TRACKS Source: National Hurricane Center.

Review of the winter SASCOFs

General Atmospheric Circulation

1 GFDL-NOAA, 2 Princeton University, 3 BSC, 4 Cerfacs, 5 UCAR

Tropical cyclones movement

Presentation transcript:

An Historical Analysis of Transient Rain Bearing Systems in the NAME Domain: The Impact of Inverted Troughs on Monsoon Rainfall Art Douglas and Phil Englehart Creighton University

Research Objectives 1. To develop an historical climatology of transient synoptic systems in northern Mexico. 1. To develop an historical climatology of transient synoptic systems in northern Mexico. 2. To determine relationships between these transient systems and fluctuations in summer rainfall. 2. To determine relationships between these transient systems and fluctuations in summer rainfall. 3. To relate variability in the frequency of transient systems to large scale oceanic and atmospheric anomalies. 3. To relate variability in the frequency of transient systems to large scale oceanic and atmospheric anomalies. 4. To provide a benchmark for modeling studies in order to determine model performance relative to the prediction of these transient features and their associated rainfall. 4. To provide a benchmark for modeling studies in order to determine model performance relative to the prediction of these transient features and their associated rainfall.

Transient Synoptic Features Affecting Northern Mexico 1. Tropical Cyclones (Published). 1. Tropical Cyclones (Published). 2. Inverted Troughs: Cold and Warm. 2. Inverted Troughs: Cold and Warm. 3. Cold Fronts. 3. Cold Fronts. 4. Cutoff Lows. 4. Cutoff Lows. 5. Open Troughs. 5. Open Troughs.

Transient Synoptic Features Affecting Northern Mexico 1. Tropical Cyclones (Published). 1. Tropical Cyclones (Published). 2. Inverted Troughs: Cold and Warm. 2. Inverted Troughs: Cold and Warm. 3. Cold Fronts. 3. Cold Fronts. 4. Cutoff Lows. 4. Cutoff Lows. 5. Open Troughs. 5. Open Troughs.

NOAA NWS LIBRARY

Meridional Wind Time Section 8 July to 12 August 2005

Meridional Wind Time Section July 1973

Average Daily Rainfall (mm) Inverted Trough Days vs. Days with No Synoptic Feature Increase in Daily Rainfall (%) Inverted Trough Days with respect to Days with No Synoptic Feature

Inverted Troughs Contribution to Seasonal (June-Sept) Rainfall ( ) Average Rainfall (mm) Percent Contribution to Seasonal Total

RAINFALL Associated with INVERTED TROUGHS as a function of TROUGH POSITION (i.e. Displacement East (-) or West (+) of the Division Location in º Long.) SONORA/SINALOA DURANGO TAMAULIPAS/NUEVO LEON

CONTRIBUTION OF INVERTED TROUGHS TO SEASONAL TOTAL RAINFALL 2004/CLIMO

Transient Synoptic Features Affecting Northern Mexico 1. Tropical Cyclones (Published). 1. Tropical Cyclones (Published). 2. Inverted Troughs: Cold and Warm. 2. Inverted Troughs: Cold and Warm. 3. Cold Fronts. 3. Cold Fronts. 4. Cutoff Lows. 4. Cutoff Lows. 5. Open Troughs. 5. Open Troughs.

VIS 16Z October 7, 2005

Total Rainfall October 2-7, 2005

TAMAULIPAS/NUEVO LEON (DIVISION 7) Percentage of Total Seasonal Rainfall Associated with Fronts (< 350 km)

Summary and Conclusions 1. A 35 year climatology of transient synoptic features indicates that NAME 2004 was characterized by: a. Cold Front Days 200% of normal. b. Inverted Trough Days 70% of normal. c. Cutoff Low Days 90% of normal. d. Open Trough Days 170% of normal. 2. Inverted troughs provide 20%-25% of the summer rainfall received in NC and NE Mexico.

3. Rainfall with IV troughs peaks when the system is overhead in NC Mexico. Rainfall peaks in Western Mexico when the IV system is 3° to 4° upstream: associated with MCS development ahead of IV troughs (downslope, weak capping). 4. IV Rainfall in NE Mexico peaks when the system is 4° upstream and this may be related to disruption of the normal divergent trade system in the western Gulf of Mexico 5. In NE Mexico cold fronts provide about 6% of the normal summer rainfall (June to September).