Evolution of US National Security Strategy

US Strategies National Security Strategy (Pres) National Security Strategy National Defense Strategy (SecDef) National Defense Strategy National Military Strategy (CJCS) National Military Strategy Quadrennial Defense Review (SecDef) Quadrennial Defense Review Annual Report of the SecDef to Congress (SecDef) Annual Report All from DoD Historical OfficeDoD Historical Office

Decision Process National Security Strategy of the US Defense Guidance National Military Strategy of the US QDR Annual Report Force Posture CONGRESS

Guidelines Isolationism /Nationalism vs.Internationalism RealismIdealism liberalism liberalismWilsonianism Balance of power Hegemonic realism

RealismIdealism Priority on spreading balance of powerspreading US values

Continuities? Patterns? s: Debate s-1952: Decision to Lead 1. Balance of power? 2. Hegemony? 3. Free Trade and Commerce 4. Spreading Democracy** 5. Nervousness about Commitments

Threat and Response How do we define the threat? How do we define the US role? How many and what types of wars do we prepare for? How do we respond to changes in the threat?

Since WW II 1. Cold War Post-Cold War Post-September 11: 2001 to present Each era defined by the nature of the threat

1. Cold War Stable and relatively predictable threat Stable and relatively predictable threat Dilemma: Total war is not an option Dilemma: Total war is not an option 45 years of developing strategies to compete with and live with the USSR 45 years of developing strategies to compete with and live with the USSR

Defining the Threat Soviet Union and Communism

Defining US Role “Truman Doctrine” Containing Spread of Communism and Soviet Power Speech, March 1947 Containment: Kennan’s Long Telegram as published in Foreign Affairs, “The Sources of Soviet Conduct” by “X”, 1947“The Sources of Soviet Conduct”

Strategy Nuclear Deterrence Forward Presence Peacetime Military Buildup A. A. NSC-68 (1950) NSC Own the sea NATO Limited War

Forward Presence

Limited War Korean War Fight locally Prevent escalation Geography Weapons Objectives Negotiate and fight

Shift in Strategy under Ike The New Look Greater reliance on nuclear weapons Conventional weapons cuts No limited war “Never Again Club” Reliance on regional alliances and allies

JFK: Renewed Focus on “Wars of Liberation”

Strategy Flexible Response Flexible Response Large Defense Buildup Large Defense Buildup Two and ½ War Strategy Two and ½ War Strategy 1. Europe 2. East Asia ½ War: Counterinsurgency ½ War: Counterinsurgency

Vietnam War

Insurgency/Counterinsurgency (for reference only) Insurgent/Guerrilla Tactics Not taking territory Hit and run strikes on economic, governmental, and military targets Create shadow political structure Make government look weak, incompetent Win support of the people Collapse government through intimidation and loss of popular support Then take over nation Counterinsurgency (COIN) Protect territory Protect government, economic, and military infrastructure Hunt down guerrillas Hunt down political supporters of enemy Stabilize government Win support of the people Nation-building

1950s-1960s: Change in the Threat Sino-Soviet Split

PM Strategy 1. Containment through détente Arms control with USSR SALT Opening to China

Strategy 2. 1 ½ war strategy 1. Europe ½ in Korea or Middle East ½ in Korea or Middle East 3. Regional Threats? Nixon Doctrine Remarks July 25, 1969 (see Q and A) Remarks July 25, 1969 Address to the nation, Nov. 3, 1969 Address to the nation

Redefinition of Threat Iranian Revolution Iranian Revolution Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan

“Arc of Crisis”

New Strategy 1. Two War Strategy 1. Europe 2. Persian Gulf Region 1. Carter Doctrine Carter Doctrine Carter Doctrine 2. Establish RDJTF (Central Command) 2. End Détente with USSR 1. But crisis brings US-PRC closer 3. Large US military Buildup

Reagan Response to New Cold War, End of Detente Military Buildup Nuclear forces 600 ship Navy Type of War? Sounds like Total War But Use of US force—minor Doctrine of Overwhelming Force (Weinberger or Powell Doctrine) Doctrine of Overwhelming Force Reagan Doctrine

The Cold War Ends

2. Post-Cold War Era Threat???? Global Peace? No rival power? No rival ideology? Does US need a national security strategy anymore?

GHW Bush 1992 Defense Guidance Leaked and disavowed Threat Emergence of a peer competitor Resurgent Russia China Regional powers (with WMD?) Iraq Iran North Korea Hegemonic Realism?

US Role Dissuasion of peer competitor Containment of peer Crush regional powers

GHW Bush Strategy US Interests Survival of the US and its values Free Trade and flow of commerce (sea lanes) Maintain and expand alliances Forward presence Global stability based on defense and expansion of US values Soviet superpower gone; US superpower remains

But threats: Unstable global and regional balance of power Unstable global and regional balance of power Less predictable world Less predictable world

US role: Balancer in Regional Relationships

US Role: Crush Regional Aggressors; Reestablish Regional Balance of Power

Strategy Balance of power politics, globally and regionally Strategic deterrence and missile defense Maintain forward presence and allies Ability to fight regional wars Base force and Reconstitution

Idealist National Security US Interests Defending the US Promoting Cooperative Security (allies and multilateralism) Expansion of free markets and commerce Promote democracy

Threats? Regional Instability Proliferation of WMD (asymmetric threats) Transnational problems (terrorism, drug trafficking, organized crime) Threats to democratic transitions “Wild cards” (overthrow of ally, revolution in ally, new technological breakthrough)

US Role? Building post-cold war order based on Liberal-democracy Building post-cold war order based on Liberal-democracy

En-En Strategy A. A. Consolidating Liberal-Democratic Peace Strengthen Core Group Transition States/Economies Big Emerging Markets (BEM) Multilateralism

En-En Strategy B. Dealing with Threats to the L-D Peace Rogue States Human Rights and Humanitarian Crises Arms Proliferation and WMD

Implementing En-En 1. Strategic Agility 2. Overseas Presence 3. Power Projection 4. Decisive Force 5. Two MRCs 6. MOOTW

5. Two Overlapping Major Regional Contingencies (MRCs) MRC One MRC Two Time

Military Operations Other Than War MOOTW MOOTW

Humanitarian Intervention Somalia The Ground Bosnia 1995 The Air

World Trade Center, NYC

Pentagon

Traditional Threats Nation-state rivalries Nation-state rivalries Hegemon vs. Rising Challenger Hegemon vs. Rising Challenger VS. VS.

A New Approach? A New Approach? Did everything change? Did everything change?

New Threats Emerge 1. Non-state Actors 2. Ideology 3. Disruption  Global Insurgency  Loosely connected networks  From AQAM to transnational organized crime

AQAM Power Projection

Why Non-State Actors have Power Globalization Ease of travel Ease of travel Ease of global finance Ease of global finance Communications revolution States Communications revolution States Ability to communicate lose their Ability to communicate lose their globally monopoly Information revolution on Information revolution on Ability to share large influence Ability to share large influence amounts of information with and anyone, anywhere, anytime violence Global spread of technology Global spread of technology

GW Bush National Security Strategy 1. Deter peer competitors 2. Deal with regional powers seeking WMD 3. Fight Global War on Terrorism (GWOT) or “The Long War” 4. Spread Democracy

1. Deter Peer Competitors

Seapower Seapower Forward Presence Forward Presence Power Projection Power Projection “ ” Capability “ ” Capability

2. Deal with regional powers seeking WMD “Axis of Evil” Isolation Isolation sanctions sanctions Preemption Preemption Regime change Regime change

3. Fight Global War on Terrorism (GWOT) or “The Long War”

4. Spread Democracy Neoconservatism Neoconservatism Stability Operations Stability Operations COIN COIN US Army FM 3-24 Counterinsurgency, 2006 US Army FM 3-24 Counterinsurgency, 2006 US Army FM 3-24 Counterinsurgency, 2006 US Army FM 3-24 Counterinsurgency, 2006 US State Department Counterinsurgency Manual US State Department Counterinsurgency Manual US State Department Counterinsurgency Manual US State Department Counterinsurgency Manual

US Domiance: Global Military Spending SIPRI data

Building world order On global scale On global scale Block by block in some nations Block by block in some nations Limits to this strategy?

Active Duty Military Personnel, 1940 – 2011 Military personnel on extended or continuous active duty. Excludes reserves on active duty for training. Source: Department of Defense. NOTE: Figures for 1998 through August 2007 include cadets/midshipmen. YearArmyAir ForceNavyMarine CorpsTotal ,023160,99728,345458, ,266,3733,319,586469,92512,055, ,167411,277380,73974,2791,459, ,109,296959,946660,695205,1702,935, ,078814,752616,987170,6212,475, ,066824,662669,985190,2132,653, ,322,548791,349691,126259,7373,064, ,333612,751535,085195,9512,128, ,036557,969527,153188,4692,050, ,787601,515570,705198,0252,151, ,403535,233579,417196,6522,043, ,559400,409434,617174,6391,518, ,170355,654373,193173,3211,384, ,944351,666358,700178,7041,378, (Sept.)565,463333,370325,123201,1571,468,364

US Navy size US Navy size htm# htm#1945 Dept of the Army historical summaries lves/collect/dahsum.html Dept of the Army historical summaries lves/collect/dahsum.html lves/collect/dahsum.html lves/collect/dahsum.html AF stats AF stats