May, 07, The Corradino Group, Inc., 14th TRB Planning Applications Conference 14 th TRB Planning Applications Conference Columbus, Ohio 1 Developing an Alternate Approach to the use of Manual Post-Processing Techniques in Traffic Forecasting - A Case Study on Managed Lanes Forecasting on I-95 Corridor in Southeast Florida Presented by Srin Varanasi

May, 07, The Corradino Group, Inc., 14th TRB Planning Applications Conference Outline Design Traffic Forecasting Needs Design Traffic Forecasting Needs Traditional Approach Traditional Approach Manual Post-Processing Issues Manual Post-Processing Issues Journey to an Alternate Approach Journey to an Alternate Approach Case-Study Example Case-Study Example

May, 07, The Corradino Group, Inc., 14th TRB Planning Applications Conference Design Traffic Forecasting Needs AADT AADT DDHV DDHV Traffic Factors, K and D Traffic Factors, K and D

May, 07, The Corradino Group, Inc., 14th TRB Planning Applications Conference Traditional Approach Select a Travel Demand Model Select a Travel Demand Model Perform Subarea Validation Perform Subarea Validation Develop Forecasts Develop Forecasts Apply Traffic Factors Apply Traffic Factors Ad hoc, NCHRP 255-style Post-Processing Ad hoc, NCHRP 255-style Post-Processing Develop Design Traffic Develop Design Traffic

May, 07, The Corradino Group, Inc., 14th TRB Planning Applications Conference Manual Post-Processing Issues Manual Errors in Large-Scale projects Manual Errors in Large-Scale projects Forecasting Consistency Issues Forecasting Consistency Issues Heavy Relying on Traffic Factors- K, D Heavy Relying on Traffic Factors- K, D Issues with Managed Lanes Modeling Projects Issues with Managed Lanes Modeling Projects Daily-to-Peak Correspondence is Different (K) Daily-to-Peak Correspondence is Different (K)

May, 07, The Corradino Group, Inc., 14th TRB Planning Applications Conference Journey to an Alternate Approach Use of Peak-Period Model Estimates Use of Peak-Period Model Estimates Use of Diurnal Factors Use of Diurnal Factors Use of CUBE Analyst Trip Table Estimation Process Use of CUBE Analyst Trip Table Estimation Process Increased Confidence in Turning Movement Forecasts Increased Confidence in Turning Movement Forecasts

May, 07, The Corradino Group, Inc., 14th TRB Planning Applications Conference Case Study I-95 PD&E Study in Southeast Florida Case Study I-95 PD&E Study in Southeast Florida

May, 07, The Corradino Group, Inc., 14th TRB Planning Applications Conference Study Modeling Approach

May, 07, The Corradino Group, Inc., 14th TRB Planning Applications Conference Study Goals Produce traffic estimates for morning and afternoon peaks. Produce traffic estimates for morning and afternoon peaks. Multiple target years: 2010, 2020, 2030, Multiple target years: 2010, 2020, 2030, Make systematic adjustments. Make systematic adjustments. Minimize “post-processing”. Minimize “post-processing”.

May, 07, The Corradino Group, Inc., 14th TRB Planning Applications Conference Subarea Modeling Approach Regional Model 2005 Base Year Subarea Model 2005 Base Year “Tight Subarea” Model 2010 Base Year

May, 07, The Corradino Group, Inc., 14th TRB Planning Applications Conference “Tight Subarea” Trip Table Adjustments Adjustments to Base Trip Tables Using CUBE Analyst Adjustments to Base Trip Tables Using CUBE Analyst Inputs: Inputs: Extracted Tight Subarea Trip Tables for the Study Corridor Extracted Tight Subarea Trip Tables for the Study Corridor Balanced AM and PM Traffic Counts for Freeways and Ramps Balanced AM and PM Traffic Counts for Freeways and Ramps Trip ends Trip ends Used Iterative Matrix Adjustment Process Used Iterative Matrix Adjustment Process Trip ends Not Altered. Trip ends Not Altered. Output: Adjusted Base Trip Table Output: Adjusted Base Trip Table

May, 07, The Corradino Group, Inc., 14th TRB Planning Applications Conference “Tight Subarea” Forecasting Approach First, Compute Unadjusted Growth First, Compute Unadjusted Growth Unadjusted Future-Base Unadjusted Future-Base Estimate Future Adjusted Trip Table Estimate Future Adjusted Trip Table Adjusted Base + Growth Adjusted Base + Growth Difference Method Judged to be Better Performing than Factors Difference Method Judged to be Better Performing than Factors

May, 07, The Corradino Group, Inc., 14th TRB Planning Applications Conference Results Discussion-Improved Validation Example

May, 07, The Corradino Group, Inc., 14th TRB Planning Applications Conference Results Discussion-Improved Trip Lengths

May, 07, The Corradino Group, Inc., 14th TRB Planning Applications Conference Results Discussion- A look at the AM DDHV Forecasts

May, 07, The Corradino Group, Inc., 14th TRB Planning Applications Conference Results Discussion- A look at the PM DDHV Forecasts

May, 07, The Corradino Group, Inc., 14th TRB Planning Applications Conference Results Discussion- AADT Forecasts Comparison to Historic Counts Trends

May, 07, The Corradino Group, Inc., 14th TRB Planning Applications Conference Conclusions and Limitations Effective Method to relate DDHV and OD Matrices used in Operations Analysis Effective Method to relate DDHV and OD Matrices used in Operations Analysis Use of Standard K-Based Projections Seem to be Overestimated- “ignored” Peak Spreading?? Use of Standard K-Based Projections Seem to be Overestimated- “ignored” Peak Spreading?? The Projections Match well with Historic Trends The Projections Match well with Historic Trends Matrix Estimation Software is Effective Tool if used with Care Matrix Estimation Software is Effective Tool if used with Care Post-Processing is not Completely Eliminated. Engineering Judgment Should be Exercised Post-Processing is not Completely Eliminated. Engineering Judgment Should be Exercised

May, 07, The Corradino Group, Inc., 14th TRB Planning Applications Conference Acknowledgements Florida Department of Transportation, District 4 Florida Department of Transportation, District 4 Shi-Chiang Li, AICP Shi-Chiang Li, AICP Lisa Dykstra, PE Lisa Dykstra, PE The Corradino Group PD&E Division The Corradino Group PD&E Division Mike Ciscar, PE Mike Ciscar, PE Ryan Solis, PE Ryan Solis, PE The Corradino Group Systems Planning Division The Corradino Group Systems Planning Division Ken Kaltenbach, PE Ken Kaltenbach, PE Abhishek Mishra Abhishek Mishra

May, 07, 2013 The Corradino Group, Inc., 14th TRB Planning Applications Conference 20 Thank You! Questions/Discussion