Oregon Population Forecast Program Rulemaking Advisory Committee (RAC) Population Research Center (PRC)

1.Committee member introductions 2.Review charge of the Oregon Population Forecast Program 3.Review and discuss the Operating Principles document of the RAC RAC Meeting Agenda PRC Website:

4.Make recommendations and discuss: – HB 2253—Section 2(4): 4-year city-county coordinated forecast proposal – HB 2253—Section 2(6): Forecast intervals for the 50-year forecast period and related age-cohort detail – HB 2253—Section 2(10): Rules to implement the population forecast program RAC Meeting Agenda continued…

1.Charges PSU with city-county coordinated population forecasting (reassigned from counties) 2.PSU provides county-level forecasts annually, and; 3.Coordinated city-county forecasts every four years 4.Process is dependent on local public input and public participation Oregon Population Forecast Program

Oregon Population Forecast Program: 4-Year Schedule Year 1 County- Level Forecasts* Year 2 Update County- Level Forecasts 1st Set of Coordinated City-County Forecasts Year 3 Update County- Level Forecasts 2nd Set of Coordinated City-County Forecasts Year 4 Update County- Level Forecasts 3rd Set of Coordinated City-County Forecasts *Includes 5-year age groups by sex

PRC Proposal

Year 1 Number of Cities County Population (2012) Adopted Population Forecast* (Year) Coos762, Curry322, Douglas12108, Jackson11204, Josephine282, Klamath566, Lane12354, Deschutes3160, Crook120, Jefferson321, Year 1 Subtotals591,104,455 City-County Coordinated Population Forecast—Proposed Year 1

City-County Coordinated Population Forecast—Proposed Year 2 Year 2 Number of Cities County Population (2012) Adopted Population Forecast* (Year) Benton486, Clackamas5381,680N/A Clatsop537, Columbia749, Lincoln746,295N/A Linn6118, Marion19320, Multnomah0748,445N/A Polk476, Tillamook725, Washington13542,845N/A Yamhill10100, Year 2 Subtotals872,533,930 Year 2 Subtotals (Outside UGB)1,276,085

City-County Coordinated Population Forecast—Proposed Year 3 Year 3Number of Cities County Population (2012) Adopted Population Forecast* (Year) Gilliam31,900N/A Hood River222, Morrow511,300N/A Sherman41, Umatilla1277, Wasco625, Wheeler31,425N/A Lake27,920N/A Baker816,210N/A Grant97,450N/A Harney27, Malheur531, Union826, Wallowa47,015N/A Year 3 Subtotals73245,350

Deliverables Annual county-level forecasts [Years 1-4] – 50 year horizon – 5-year age cohorts by sex Coordinated county and city-level (UGB) forecasts [Years 2-4] – Report containing: Includes information for all cities and counties Summary of demographic trends, data gathered from surveys, information collected from city and county officials, as well as the public, and assumptions about future growth Short technical document specific to forecast methods employed

Proposed Annual City-County Coordinated Forecast Approach Month 1 Update county-level forecasts Month 2 Hold 1st public meeting Month 3 Distribute data collection surveys Months 4- 6 Build models Accept additional data Month 7 Release Preliminary Forecasts Month 8 Hold 2nd public meeting Month 9 Issue Proposed Population Forecast Begin Review period Month 11 Issue Final Population Forecast Month 7—Release Preliminary population forecasts Month 8—Hold 2 nd public meeting:  Seek input for potential modifications  Collect additional data and local input not previously submitted Month 9—Issue Proposed population forecasts and begin Review Period

Outlining the Challenge Process – Commences with the release of the Proposed population forecast – 45 day review period during which a city can “challenge” the forecast by providing additional information to support proposed change To be considered: 1.Person or organization able to submit a formal challenge; 2.Types of data that must accompany a formal challenge, and; 3.Other considerations

Population Forecasting Models Cohort-Component model – Disaggregates population into 5-year age cohorts and explicitly assumes: Likelihood of demographic events (fertility, mortality, and migration) is inextricably linked to a persons gender and age Housing Unit model – Population forecasts driven by total housing units, occupancy rate, and persons per household – Includes group quarters populations

Types of Data Collected Primary data 1.Public officials, planners, and other city personnel 2.Housing developer survey Secondary data – U.S. Census Bureau 2000 and 2010 decennial Censuses of Population and Housing – Enumerated population by age and sex, and housing – American Community Survey (ACS) Migration, income, poverty, and educational attainment – Oregon Employment Department, Workforce and Economic Research Historical and current employment data, and projections General economic trends Likely future employers

Types of Data Collected Secondary data continued… – Oregon Department of Transportation Transportation infrastructure Future plans – Oregon Center for Health Statistics Birth and death data – Population Research Center (PRC) Certified annual population estimates – Oregon Department of Education K-12 school enrollment data – City, Regional, and County Planning departments Qualitative data not obtained in surveys

Local and Public Input Two meetings – 1 st meeting (Month 2) Explain forecasting methodology and process Gather additional data and local input Provide background of locally-specific demographic trends – 2 nd meeting (Month 8) Provide officials with proposed forecast results Seek input for potential modifications Gather additional data and local input not previously received

Oregon Population Forecast Program Rulemaking Advisory Committee (RAC) Population Research Center (PRC)

Oregon Population Estimates Program Population Estimates – Refers to a point in time estimate of population in the present or in the past Usual estimate date of July 1 Distribution of state revenue to communities – Primary data collection instrument: Annual Estimates Survey – Now electronic!

Population Forecasts – An estimation of future population based on historic and current trends, and assumptions about likely future events – Oregon law requires counties to prepare and update coordinated population forecasts 20-year horizon – Serve as the basis for growth management UGB expansions Planning-related issues (transportation planning, school facility plans, and capital improvement) Population Forecasts

June 2011—Oregon stakeholders meet to identify and address concerns specific to population forecasting and Oregon land-use laws Some identified issues: – Cost – Different demographic methods – City and county coordination – Outdated population forecasts – Controversial and subject to litigation Population Forecast Workgroup

Presentation objectives: 1.What is the Oregon Population Forecast Program? 2.What do the changes in population forecasting mean for my city? 3.What are the benefits of the Oregon Population Forecast Program? 4.In the coming months, what can I expect (in terms of process) and how can I prepare my city to be ready for these changes? Outlining a New Way Forward for Population Forecasting

Updated, timely forecasts 50-year time horizon for other planning requirements Consistent forecast methodology Systematic incorporation of local and public input Reduction of challenges and lawsuits – Adoption of PSU forecast is not a land-use decision and therefore, not appealable to LUBA Benefits of the Oregon Population Forecast Program

Improved efficiency – Allows us to leverage data from existing Population Estimates program Fully funded by state resources – Cost savings to cities and counties Benefits of the Oregon Population Forecast Program