Climate Change Adaptation for Livestock Smallholders in Gandaki River Basin, Nepal Dr. Nir Krakauer Department of Civil Engineering / NOAA-CREST, City College of New York Tarendra Lakhankar (CCNY) Soni Pradhanang (Hunter) Ajay Jha (CSU)

GRB Situation Frequent droughts & declining crop yields Overstocked and unproductive livestock Increasing water scarcity, with women & children being the worst affected Extreme events such as flooding Poverty

Purpose and Objectives Purpose: Developing an integrated approach for climate adaptation for the rural poor (focusing on livestock sector) based on natural resource conservation and resilience building. Objectives: 1. Understand local and regional climate change over recent decades through application of statistical methods to weather station and remote sensing data; 2. Assess the impact of past/present climate variability and change on the health and food supply of livestock raised by small farmers and herders across elevation gradients in Gandaki River Basin (GRB) through field survey; and 3. Work with and train village-based networks to devise and pilot strategies to increase resilience to climate hazards.

Study Area Central Nepal (wide range of elevations)

Projected warming in GRB Greater warming projected at higher elevations

Projected precipitation change Precipitation generally projected to increase, with complex spatial pattern

Climate vulnerability: drought

Climate vulnerability: flood

Integrated climate adaptation Combine climate science with development and capacity building work

Livestock adaptation strategies Focus on nutrition, soil/water management for sustainable, climate- resilient productivity

Project activities 1. Climate Hazard Mapping 2. Stakeholders Meetings/Workshops 3. Pilots Village Based Nutritional Fodder Production and Water Management Demonstration 4. Research Grant/ Internship to Graduate Students 5. Training of Communities on CCA 6. Surveys of Livestock Smallholders 7. Researcher/Stakeholder/Students Training

1. Climate Hazard Mapping Analyze spacetime trends in precipitation extremes Initial work (submitted for publication): Seek to synthesize station observations with precipitation products: – TRMM: every 3 hours, 0.25°, since 1998 – PERSIANN: 3 hours, 0.04°, – APHRODITE: daily, 0.25°, (interpolated surface obs)

Nepal topography and stations

Precipitation distribution Remote sensing: TRMM Gridded obs: APHRODITE PERSIAN N

Distribution compared to stations By elevation By month (dominated by summer monsoon)

Initial conclusions TRMM product (but not PERSIANN) reasonably captures variability of monthly precipitation, suitable for analyzing droughts Need to extend to daily/hourly level to study flood events

2. Stakeholder Meetings/Workshops A. District Level Consultation Workshops Dhading-30 October 2012 Syanja-31 October 2012 Kapilvastu- 1 November 2012 B. Inception Workshop Kathmandu-2 November 2012

2. Stakeholder Meetings/Workshops C. District Level Stakeholder Meetings Dhading-14 February 2013 Syanja-16 February 2013 Kapilvastu- 18 February 2013 D. VDC Level Consultation Workshops Dhading Baireni VDC Nilakantha VDC Syanja Tindobate VDC Setidovan VDC Chapakot VDC Kapilvastu Jayanagar VDC Banganga VDC Hariharpur VDC

3. Pilot Nutritional Fodder Production and Water Management Demonstrations 3 demonstration sites at different elevations testing irrigated nutritional fodder production, compost Baireni, Dhading, Jholpe, Syanja, Gorusinghe, Kapilvastu

Weather stations at demo sites T, q, P measured automatically and available on Web Permit correlation with measured yields and livestock health

4. Graduate Student Research – Saluna Pokhrel: Tickborne disease in cows – Rachana Dev: Gender perspective on livestock sector climate change adaptation – Razan Malla: Drip vs. flood irrigation yields, water and nutrient use efficiency – Parashuram Bhandari: Community adaptation to climate extremes

5. Training Communities for Climate Change Adaptation Training on making hay, silage, mineral block, urea molasses Dhading, Syanja, Kapilvastu

6. Surveys of Livestock Smallholders Baseline Surveys May 2013

7. Training of Researchers/Officials/Students Remote Sensing and Climate Hazard Mapping May, Kathmandu (Octave-centric) More Trainings for Second and Third Year

Thank You