Diagnostics, Special Projects and Phenomena of Interest Review of 2 nd C20C Workshop for 3 rd C20C Workshop ICTP, Trieste, Italy, 21 April 2004

Center for Ocean- Land-Atmosphere Studies Forcing Fields HadISST1.1 sea surface temperature and sea ice analysis present (natural + anthropogenic)  Taylor procedure for true representation of monthly mean SST in daily interpolated values (optional) Stratospheric volcanic aerosols in broad latitude bands after Sato et al (natural) CO 2 specified as linear interpolation in time from a table of ~decadal values from Johns et al (primarily anthropogenic) Stratospheric O 3 depletion per the SPARC time series and methodology (Randel and Wu 1999) (primarily anthropogenic) ---- Jeff Knight presented a more comprehensive set

Center for Ocean- Land-Atmosphere Studies Diagnostics Monthly means for each ensemble member (continuous or from 6-h data)  Zonal-mean U,V,T,q cross sections for all levels  500 hPa and 200 hPa height  MSLP  Precipitation and evaporation  Temp. at 2m and 850 hPa  U,V at 850 and 200hPa  Total heat flux (net solar + net longwave + sensible + latent)  Zonal and meridional wind stress  Soil moisture index  THESE DATA ARE TO BE SHARED BY ALL PARTICIPATING MODELING GROUPS VIA DODS SERVERS

Center for Ocean- Land-Atmosphere Studies Basic Statistics Seasonal means and standard deviations (all prognostic variables) Estimates of forced variability (using ANOVA after Rowell et el 1995, Q.J. Roy. Meteor. Soc.) for Z200, U850, MSLP, Precip., T2m Linear trend (or ) for  Z500 DJF, T2m over land, precip. (global)  Regression map with NINO3.4 index(  C) for ensemble means of Z500 and precip. for all seasons, using lag 0

Center for Ocean- Land-Atmosphere Studies Key Time Series SOI NAO PNA (MSLP proxy) Global mean land surface (T2m) Northern European Temperature Index Rainfall (NE Brazil, All-India, Sahel,North American Great Plains,SW Australia, Queensland, Caribbean, East Asian monsoon,Winter monsoon, …)

Center for Ocean- Land-Atmosphere Studies Phenomena Sahel rainfall trend Decadal variations in European summer rainfall and anticylonicity North American Great Plains drought (1930s-40s) Interdecadal variability of Asian monsoon Arctic warming ( ) 1976 tropical transition Semi-arid regions, e.g. multi-year Afghan drought Variations in lake levels (Caspian, Chad, Great Lakes, Great Salt Lake, …) Response to warming of Indian Ocean Extreme winters:  Europe , , …  N. America , Extreme wet periods  N. W. Europe autumn 2000 floods

Center for Ocean- Land-Atmosphere Studies Special Projects 1. Trends in extremes 2. Interannual variability 3. Potentially predictable patterns 4. Origin of US Great Plains rainfall and drought 5. Leading NH EOFs and PDFs of PCs NAO and European-Atlantic blocking (particularly the PDF) 7. PNA/ENSO responses and Pacific blocking (particularly the PDF) 8. East-Asian monsoon 9. Predictability of rainfall anomalies 10. Trends in time series over the full 20 th century in key quantities including global and regional T2m 11. MJO variations and trends 12. Origin of Indian and Sahel rainfall variability 13. Decadal changes in ENSO response 14. Extreme seasonal events 15. Runoff

Center for Ocean- Land-Atmosphere Studies Proposed Procedure Step 0 - Data sharing procedures Step 1 - Consolidate/prioritize sub-projects Step 2 - Solicit volunteers to coordinate sub-projects Step 3 - Set tasks and deadlines