Navigating Emerging Markets Matthew Strauss Vice-President, Portfolio Management and Portfolio Manager.

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Presentation transcript:

Navigating Emerging Markets Matthew Strauss Vice-President, Portfolio Management and Portfolio Manager

Emerging markets Emerging markets (EM) investments: longer-term perspective – An integral part of a fully diversified equity portfolio, not only for the strong of heart Risk and return – Containing volatility within emerging markets without sacrificing all of the upside Outlook – Taking advantage of the diversified nature of emerging markets and moving beyond Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRICs)

Increasing economic importance Source: IMF & World Bank 1&2 Purchasing Power Parity

A market that can’t be ignored Equity market capitalization Source: World Bank

Reaping the benefits Higher returns but with higher volatility Source: Bloomberg * YTD – 31 Aug

Signature’s approach to EM investments The inconvenient EM truths – Cyclical – deal with it – Less transparent – cry me a river – More political – ask Obama about Putin Signature’s approach – It’s a team – 9 global sector specialist PMs (and 8 analysts), 3 macro strategists (and 2 EM analysts) Explore all sources of risks and return – Active stock, sector, country and currency management – Cross-asset class expertise (e.g. rates, FX, credit, commodities, equity, property) Regulatory/policy & political risks – Beyond the headlines – Country visits – Expanding EM fixed-income capabilities Analyzing companies – the importance of quality – Must go beyond financials analysis and company reports (e.g. strong balance sheets, sustainability of margins, and returns on invested capital) – Meeting management (e.g. corporate governance, strength, track record, accounting principles, direction) – Discussions with competitors, holding companies, and subsidiaries (e.g. barriers to entry, market share, corporate governance and respect)

Absolute returns & focusing on volatility CI Signature Emerging Markets Fund

EM outlook, part I of II * Aug YTD* return - Emerging: 10.7% - Developed : 7.3% - S&P 500: 9.9%

EM outlook, part II of II BRICs Business cycle Politics – Russia/Ukraine – Middle East – Turkey – China EM fund – fully engaged – China, India, Philippines and Mexico over Brazil & Russia – Selective cyclical over over-priced defensives – Financials, health care and industrials over telecom and energy

Panel Discussion

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