National Centers for Environmental Prediction Development/Status Update “Where America’s Climate, Weather, Ocean and Space Weather Services Begin” Dr. Louis W. Uccellini National Centers for Environmental Prediction Director 1 July 11, 2011

2 Goals for Today’s Meeting Provide overview of NCEP Review current ongoing NOS/NCEP interactions since last NOS visit (July 2010) Start the process – future strategic goals and related steps in attaining those goals

3 Outline NCEP’s Role in NOAA’s Seamless Suite of Products and Forecast Services NOAA’s Model Production Suite Computer Capability Update Status from Last Meeting (July, 2010) Enabling “Operational” Ecosystem Prediction Capabilities Summary

4 Research, Development and Technology Infusion Respond & Feedback NCEP’s Role in NOAA’s Seamless Suite of Products and Forecast Services IBM Supercomputer Gaithersburg, MD Distribute Observe Products & Forecast Services To Serve Diverse Customer Base e.g., Energy Officials, DHS/FEMA, Emergency Managers, Water Resource Planning, Transportation, Health organizations (CDC…) NCEP Feedback - Process - Assimilate - Predict - Process - Assimilate - Predict Prediction is now inherently linked to numerical models Central Guidance Central Guidance Local Offices Local Offices

Mission: NCEP delivers science-based environmental predictions to the nation and the global community. We collaborate with partners and customers to produce reliable, timely, and accurate analyses, guidance, forecasts and warnings for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the national economy. 5 Organization: Central component of NOAA National Weather Service NCEP Supports the NOAA Seamless Suite of Climate Weather and Ocean Products Vision: The Nation’s trusted source, first alert and preferred partner for environmental prediction services Space Weather Prediction Center NCEP Central Operations Climate Prediction Center Environmental Modeling Center Hydromet Prediction Center Ocean Prediction Center National Hurricane Center Storm Prediction Center Aviation Weather Center

EMCWRF Developmental Test Center, NASA/ NOAA/DoD Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation CPCClimate Test Bed NHCJoint Hurricane Test Bed HPCHydrometeorological Test Bed SPCHazardous Weather Test Bed with NSSL SWPCSpace Weather Prediction Test Bed with AFWA AWCAviation Weather Test Bed OPClinked with EMC’s Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch; working with IOOS/SURA on possible test bed Test Beds Service – Science Linkage with the Outside Community 6

7 What Does NCEP Do? -Model Development, Implementation and Applications for Global and Regional Weather, Climate, Oceans and now Space Weather -International Partnerships in Ensemble Forecasts -Data Assimilation including the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation -Super Computer, Workstation and Network Operations “From the Sun to the Sea” Solar Monitoring, Warnings and Forecasts Climate Seasonal Forecasts El Nino – La Nina Forecast Weather Forecasts to Day 7 Extreme Events (Hurricanes, Severe Weather, Snowstorms, Fire Weather) Aviation Forecasts and Warnings High Seas Forecasts and Warnings 7

8 Climate/Weather Linkage ForecastUncertaintyForecastUncertainty Minutes Hours Days 1 Week 2 Week Months Seasons Years NOAA’s Model Production Suite NWS Seamless Suite of Forecasts North American Ensemble Forecast System Climate Forecast System Forecast Lead Time Warnings & Alert Coordination Watches Forecasts Threats Assessments Guidance Outlook Benefits Short-Range Ensemble Forecast Ocean Model Great Lakes/ Coastal/Bay Models Hurricane Models Global Forecast System North American Forecast Rapid Update Cycle for Aviation Dispersion Models for DHS -GFDL -WRF NCEP Model Perspective MaritimeMaritime Life & Property Space Operations RecreationRecreation EcosystemEcosystem EnvironmentEnvironment Emergency Mgmt AgricultureAgriculture Reservoir Control Energy Planning CommerceCommerce HydropowerHydropower Fire Weather HealthHealth AviationAviation

9 Air Quality WRF NMM/ARW Workstation WRF WRF: ARW, NMM ETA, RSM GFS, Canadian Global Model Regional NAM WRF NMM North American Ensemble Forecast System Hurricane GFDL HWRF Global Forecast System Dispersion ARL/HYSPLIT For eca st Severe Weather Rapid Update for Aviation Climate Short-Range Ensemble Forecast NOAA’s NWS Model Production Suite CFS MOM4 NOAH Sea Ice NOAH Land Surface Model Coupled Global Data Assimilation Oceans HYCOM WaveWatch III NAM/CMAQ 9 Regional DA Satellites + Radar 99.9% 3.5B Obs/Day NOS PORTS GLOFS Chesapeake Tampa Delaware ADCIRC Space Weather (Future) ENLIL Coupled (Future) Regional DA

Update Status from Last Meeting July

11 Activities Timeline for NOS Interaction Computer “backbone” agreement NOS/NCEP MOU – September 2008 Modeling CONOPS completed – May 2010 NOS/NCEP Leadership meeting – July 2010 Great Lakes Operational Forecast System Implementation – December 7, 2010 SURA meeting at NCEP – March 2, 2011 Implementation of Chesapeake Bay, Tampa Bay and Delaware Bay Operational Forecast System – March 29, 2011 IOOS/OPC working toward support for Ocean/Coastal test bed (ongoing)

12 Current Status NCO now supports NOS models in operational mode –Great Lakes, Chesapeake Bay, Delaware Bay, Tampa Bay Other models now being assessed by NOS for implementation (e.g., Gulf of Mexico, Columbia River,…) Global HYCOM running in parallel; to be implemented by September 30, km NMMB to be implemented August 9 –4km winds for bay models Actively enabling (providing O2R support for) ecosystem forecasts (report out on July 5-6 workshop) NWS/NCEP working with IOOS to support SURA/Test bed

Popularity of NCEP Models Web Page Number of Hits (Millions) Computing Capability Applied to NWS and Now NOS Model Services Number of Hits (Millions) Popularity of NCEP Models Web Page 2010 Transition to IBM Power 6 complete –Declared operational August 12, 2009 –73.1 trillion calculations/sec –Factor of 4 increase over the IBM Power5 –156 POWER6 32-way nodes –4,992 processors –20 terabytes of memory –330 terabytes of disk space –3.5 billion observations/day –27.8 Million model fields/day Primary: Gaithersburg, MD Backup: Fairmont, WV –Guaranteed switchover in 15 minutes –Web access to models as they run on the CCS –Approaching capacity limits for existing operational computing (new system, scheduled Sept 2013)

“Enabling” Operational Ecosystem Prediction Capabilities 14 A major goal in NWS Strategic Plan Look to partner with NOS, OAR, NESDIS and other NOAA components with NOS providing lead Many opportunities to accelerate various regional-local based Ecological Forecasting Systems

15 Summary NCEP is –Strategically aligned with NOAA’s “seamless suite” of products from the “Sun to the Sea” –Working with NOAA on opportunities to “enable” and expand predictive capabilities (e.g., oceans air and water quality, ecology, space weather…) with success based on interdisciplinary Earth System approach NCEP-NOS ocean-coastal operational working relationship NCEP-NOS CO-OPS CONOPS agreement Increasing interactions with SURA through IOOS –A critical transition agent in the NOAA “research to operations” process involving observations, data assimilation, modeling, and service delivery – working with IOOS on establishing test bed within OPC –Enabling predictive capabilities for ecosystem and human health applications

Today’s Meeting Agenda 10:30 a.m.Opening Statements – Objectives for Today Laura Furgione, NWS DAA, D Dr. Holly Bamford, NOS DAA 10:50 a.m.Developments/Status Update Since Last Visit to NCEP Dr. Louis W. Uccellini, NCEP Director 11:10 a.m.Collaborative Modeling Efforts: Progress and Lessons Dr. Hendrik Tolman, Chief, Ocean Modeling Branch Mary Erickson, Chief, Coast Survey Development Lab (CSDL) 11:35 a.m.Coastal Ecological Forecasting; Vision and Prospects for Operational Services Dr. Russell Callender, Acting Director, NCCOS/NOS Ecological Forecasting: Report on July 5-6 Workshop Dr. David Green, OCWWS/NWS 12:00 p.m.Vision and Prospect for an Ocean/Coastal Modling Test bed Zdenka Willis, Director, IOOS Program Dr. Ming Ji, Director, Ocean Prediction Center 12:30 p.m.Discussion/Working Lunch - Review current projects underway - Identify gaps or projected delays - Future planned project - Areas for future growth - Building logical partnerships (NMFS, USACE, DOE…) 1:15 p.m.Executive Session Execs Adjourn to NCEP Director’s Office 1:15 p.m.Technical Breakout Discussions 2:30 p.m. Regroup/Report Out/Wrap Up 3:00 p.m.Adjourn 16

Appendix 17

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Forecast Metrics 19

Record Values 20

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22 NHC Atlantic 72 hr Track Forecast Errors Advances Related To USWRP Major Upgrades in Global and Hurricane Numerical models trend line

23 Increasing emphasis on multi-model ensemble approaches that build on the NCEP model suite –SREF –NAEFS –Climate Forecast System Entering the NPOESS era –More rapid access to hyperspectral data –GPS soundings –Higher resolution surface radiance data All models run within ESMF –Models run concurrently –Fully coupled –Spanning all scales Operational Earth System model; enable more explicit hydro, ocean, coastal, climate and ecosystems applications Forces for Change Model Region 1 Model Region 2 Global/Regional Model Domain ESMF-based System

Integrated User Requirements Ecosystem Services such as flood and storm protection, clean water supply, safe food, healthy habitats, and beach quality, contribute $Trillions in economic activity, social, human health and commercial benefit Accurate weather, water & climate information is a critical driver for decisions QPF runoff... to maintain soil, water quality and food supply Coastal winds and climatology... to predict toxic algal blooms, fish stock, and public safety Air/Water temperature... to forecast scenarios for pathogen progression and avoid illness Prediction capability can now be applied to ecosystem components to better provide integrated environmental services for decision support

25 Prototype Projects Currently, NCEP and other NWS offices are linked to NOAA pilot programs –Chesapeake Bay Beach/Water Quality Living Resource Distribution Dissolved Oxygen Predictions Harmful Algal Bloom Disease Pathogen Progression –Gulf Coast –Gulf of Maine –Great Lakes –California Current Oysters, Fish, Sea nettles... Vibrio... Satellite Images of Saharan Dust Moving Across Atlantic Algal Blooms and Dead Zones Barnacles, Muscles