Sustainable Food Security Under Land and Water Stresses Nnyaladzi Batisani Botswana Institute for Technology Research and Innovation Gaborone, Botswana African European Residential School 4 August 2014 University of Botswana, Gaborone, Botswana

Africa's food security challenges unmanageable without addressing climate change, land tenure (Braimoh Ademola, 2012)

Africa's need to increase productivity for about 750 million people in Africa by 2050 the lack of resilience in the agricultural sector to cope with climate change impact is likely to decrease crop yields to as low as per cent. Africa deal with green house gas emissions Climate Smart Agriculture Resource depletion and land degradation

Land tenure a big factor decimating food production in Africa – – how farmers can be assured that if they plant crops this year, the next year they will not be driven away from the same plot of land Governments, through partnerships with institutions such as the World Bank, ensure that there is access to farming land both for men and women Agriculture is a risky business governments and partners have failed to address the risks involved

Local Dimensions of Global Change All global change is local Causes occur in local places Effects occur in local places Responses implemented in local places

Location of weather stations used in the analysis

Drought dynamics and severity ab cd Spatial distribution of severe drought in Botswana For (a) 3-month SPI, (b) 6-month SPI, (c) 9-month SPI, and (d) 12-month SPI 3-month SPI 6 month SPI 9 month SPI 12 month SPI

Percentage drought occurrence at corresponding drought categories and drought duration

Climate variability and change Rainfall spatial stability

StationsAnnual Rainfall Trendp-value Francistown a Gantsi a Kasane Lobatse a Maun a Molepolole a Serowe b Tsabong b a Significant at p<0.05 b Significant at p<0.10

StationJanFebMarAprMayJunJulyAugSepOctNovDec Francis- town NE b b a b Gantsi W Kasane N Lobatse SE b b a Maun N Molepolole SE a b b Serowe E a a a Tsabong S a a Trends of monthly rainfall a Significant at p<0.05 b Significant at p<0.10 decline sign. decline increase sign. increase

StationsMean number of rainy days/year Trend rainy days/year Sign. level trends p-value Rainy days/year vs Annual Rainfall R 2 Gantsi * 0.10 Maun Mochudi Serowe Shakawe Tsabong * 0.06 * Significant at p<0.05

Linking rainfall variability and dry land crop yield

(a) Rainfall stability with yield stability of (b) maize and (c) sorghum (a) (b)(c)

Holistic Approach to Climate Change Adaptation Holistic Approach to Climate Change Adaptation

The global food price in 2007–08 (von Braun, 2008) Food price inflation dynamics in Botswana (CSO, 2009) Botswana quarterly real GDP growth ( CSO, 2009) Botswana quarterly balance of payments (BoB, 2009)

Adaptation toolbox

Development of Decision support systems

Determination of on set of the planting season

Yield gap analysis

Real-time rainfall measurement Cell phone towers

Achieving food security in the midst of climate change and socioeconomic perturbations Mainstreaming climate change in the broader economic agenda, rather than taking a narrow agricultural perspective Climate smart agriculture: – – crop and livestock insurance, – – social safety nets, – – research on and dissemination of heat, and drought-resistant crops, – – conservation of traditional plant varieties with those characteristics. – – new irrigation schemes combined with and better market access for high-value products – – design of new irrigation schemes and the retrofitting of existing ones to cater for the expected increase in rainfall variability and stream flows – – better climate information such as provision of long-term weather forecast

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