Global Environmental Change and Food Systems Insights from the Southern African Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

SAfMA scope: food systems Human well-being Hunger & Nutrition Livelihoods Determinants Production Access Impacts & trade-offs Biodiversity Water Scenarios

Hunger and nutrition are significant ~75% of protein is from vegetable sources, esp cereals Important contributions from ‘wild foods’

7 12 Both production and access are important Misselhorn 2005 Global Environmental Change

Food systems – key characteristics Production potential is more than adequate to meet demand, but restricted by: Lack of capital – technology Marketing constraints – SADC & intl. agreements, infrastructure Impact of climate change small compared to difference between actual & potential production Access key issue, even where production is adequate Large fraction of people base livelihoods on agriculture – subsistence or agricultural labour Livestock acts as capital investment Not driven only by food demands

Scenarios Several recent scenario exercises exist for SADC region Synthesized using MA conceptual framework African Patchwork African Partnership – NEPAD documents

Key drivers within scenarios Governance critical uncertainty at all scales Effectiveness of policy, regional integration & stability Economic growth, trade Infrastructure Science and technological investment & growth Population growth, urbanization Rising demand for meat products – chicken, beef, fish HIV/AIDS – primarily affects work force and skills

African Patchwork African Partnership Weak central governance Low economic growth Poor regional cooperation Strong central governance High economic growth Strong regional cooperation IMAGE land-cover model Significant expansion of agricultural land

Suggests link btw ecosystem service degradation & social tension Likely to be a two-directional pathway Important interconnections

GECAFS Southern Africa workshop Top 10 emerging and key stressors