32 nd RAIV Hurricane Committee Bermuda Country Report Dr. Mark Guishard Director, Bermuda Weather Service 8 March 2010 Fairmont Hamilton Princess

Outer rain bands 225nm 120nm 90nm 240nm

Fabian 2003 Bill 2009

Forecast accuracy CPA: 166m West 12 am Saturday (Midnight)

Up to 70% chance of 34 knots (Tropical- storm force winds) in the next 5 days

HURRICANE BILL - Advisory #25 Issued: 12 noon Fri, Aug 21, 2009 HURRICANE BILL is a threat to Bermuda. Hurricane Watch in effect Tropical Storm Warning in effect Current Position: 27.6N 66.3W approx. 300 nm S of Bermuda Recent Movement: NW or 325 degrees at 16 kt Max Sustained Winds: 100kt gusts 120kt Closest point of approach to Bermuda within 72 hrs: Date: 4 am Sat, Aug 22, Distance: 182 nm to the WSW as a Cat 3

NOAA Wave buoy measurements N W – 306 nm SSE 1450 GMT: Wind Direction: SEE (150 deg) Wind Speed : 31.1 kts Wind Gust : 38.9 kts Wave Height : 24.3 ft (13.5 ft 24 hrs ago) Dominant Wave Period : 12 sec Bermuda Bill

0.55 inches of rain recorded

53 Gust 84 knots Commissioner’s Point 10-minute mean winds Tropical Storm Force Winds Duration: ~12 hours Max 10-minute winds at Airport: 110° 40 GUSTS 52 KTS. Total rainfall recorded August 21st/22nd: 0.55 inches.

Lessons from Bill Hurricane Watch/Warning based on sea state as opposed to wind strength – BWS in-house discussion Lack of Emergency Alert System – SMS text message alerts from cell phone provider took too long Emphasis on the local conditions as opposed to the center of the Tropical System – need to de-emphasize “but it is far away!” Grateful to US NOAA for the buoys to the SSE & West – request they be in service for upcoming 2010 Season Causeway closures need to include a component of sea state Wave & surge forecasting lacking – Bathymetry, buoy network, tide gauges needed

Any Questions? Dr. Mark Guishard Director, Bermuda Weather Service 8 March 2010 Fairmont Hamilton Princess