Recovery and Financial Markets John Ryding, Chief Market Economist February 20, 2002.

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Presentation transcript:

Recovery and Financial Markets John Ryding, Chief Market Economist February 20, 2002

Recovery Scorecard Table Source: Bear, Stearns & Co. Inc.

Bear Stearns Industrial Metals Index 01/01/96 = 100 Source: Bear, Stearns & Co. Inc.

Real Personal Income 12-month change, % Source: Commerce Department Shading = recession

Real Corporate Profits 4-quarter change, % Source: Commerce Department Shading = recession

Profit Fundamentals Source: Bear, Stearns & Co. Inc.

GDP and S&P 500 Growth Following Recession Source: Bear, Stearns & Co. Inc.

GDP Growth and S&P 500 Following Recession Source: Bear, Stearns & Co. Inc.

Price of Gold Source: Haver Analytics $ per troy ounce

Trade-Weighted U.S. Dollar Source: Haver Analytics 3/73 = 100

Nominal Fed Funds Rate percent Source: Haver Analytics

Real Yield on 10-Year Treasury Note percent Source: Haver Analytics

10-Year to 2-Year Treasury Spread Source: Federal Reserve basis points

2-Year Treasury to Fed Funds Spread basis points Source: Federal Reserve

Baa Corporate Bond Spread Baa minus 10-yr Treasury, basis points Source: Moody’s; Federal Reserve

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