Biofuels for Transport: Global Potentials & Implications for Development Suzanne Hunt Worldwatch Institute

BIOFUELS FOR TRANSPORTATION: GLOBAL POTENTIAL AND IMPLICATIONS FOR SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURE AND ENERGY IN THE 21ST CENTURY Funded by the German Ministry of Food, Agriculture, and Consumer Protection Funded by the German Ministry of Food, Agriculture, and Consumer Protection May 16 th Release May 16 th Release June 7 th Capital Hill Event June 7 th Capital Hill Event

Cellulosic Biofuels Potential Projections A Review of 13 Studies on Biomass Potential, 2010–2100

Cellulosic Biofuels Potential Theoretically Huge Germany: 25% petroleum displacement by 2030 with home grown cellulosic biofuels, (even with strict conservation priorities) U.S.: 30% of our petroleum displacement 2030 A U.S. city of 1 million people generates enough municipal solid waste to produce 150 million liters of ethanol Energy crop breeding: yields could double or triple after they benefit from focused breeding efforts Waste bagasse at sugar cane mills could double ethanol yields; with harvesting of leaves and tips, ethanol yields could triple

Near to Medium Term Current generation fuels likely to dominate Current generation fuels likely to dominate Developing countries well situated for sugar and oilseed production Developing countries well situated for sugar and oilseed production Sugar cane is uniquely productiveSugar cane is uniquely productive Country/region specific analyses are needed to assess appropriate crops, policies, investment levels, etc. Country/region specific analyses are needed to assess appropriate crops, policies, investment levels, etc.

Biofuel Yields of Selected Ethanol and Biodiesel Feedstock

Convential Biofuels – Limiting Factors High food and feed prices High food and feed prices rapeseed oil and sugar pricesrapeseed oil and sugar prices Other competing uses Other competing uses BiomaterialsBiomaterials Expansion of cropland onto sensitive areas Expansion of cropland onto sensitive areas Brazilian cerrado; rainforests in Indonesia and Malaysia; Conservation Reserve lands in the U.S.Brazilian cerrado; rainforests in Indonesia and Malaysia; Conservation Reserve lands in the U.S. Overstressed water supplies Overstressed water supplies Fossil aquifers in northern China, across India, and the western corn/soy belt in the U.S.Fossil aquifers in northern China, across India, and the western corn/soy belt in the U.S.

Developing World Potential Large biomass potential in the developing world Large biomass potential in the developing world Latin America, Caribbean, & Sub-Saharan AfricaLatin America, Caribbean, & Sub-Saharan Africa Potential to substitute for expensive oil imports Potential to substitute for expensive oil imports Indonesia, $14 billion in oil subsidies in 2005, or about a third of government expendituresIndonesia, $14 billion in oil subsidies in 2005, or about a third of government expenditures Similar situations are found in much of AfricaSimilar situations are found in much of Africa The Caribbean in 2002, petroleum products represented an average of 93% of total consumptionThe Caribbean in 2002, petroleum products represented an average of 93% of total consumption Diversify energy portfolios Diversify energy portfolios Attract foreign investment Attract foreign investment Potential suppliers of biofuels to the global market Potential suppliers of biofuels to the global market e.g. much of Africae.g. much of Africa

Achieving This Potential Priority given to meeting domestic needs Priority given to meeting domestic needs Export opportunities can be explored that would serve to co-finance production for local needsExport opportunities can be explored that would serve to co-finance production for local needs Development impact maximization Development impact maximization Farmer ownershipFarmer ownership Job creationJob creation Strong environmental and social protections, rule of law, and governance Strong environmental and social protections, rule of law, and governance Country/region specific analyses are needed to assess appropriate crops, policies, investment levels, etc. Country/region specific analyses are needed to assess appropriate crops, policies, investment levels, etc.

Concluding Thoughts Physical potential huge Physical potential huge Matter of policy Matter of policy Peak oil, spare capacity, China’s cars and America's SUVs Peak oil, spare capacity, China’s cars and America's SUVs Role of Brazil and its experience Role of Brazil and its experience Especially in sugar producing countriesEspecially in sugar producing countries Role of the WBG: global funding of knowledge transfer Role of the WBG: global funding of knowledge transfer

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