UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Navy Task Force Climate Change Robert Winokur Oceanographer of the Navy (Acting) March 2012 UNCLASSIFIED

Climate Change 2 UNCLASSIFIED Arctic Sea Ice Continues to Melt & Thin Arctic Warming is 2 x the Rest of the World Total Earth Heat Content from 1950 (Murphy 2009). Ocean data taken from Domingues et al 2008 The Ocean is Storing Most of the Heat Mean surface temperature relative to baseline period , from:The Copenhagen Diagnosis, 2009

UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Navy Task Force Climate Change 3 Science-based approach, cooperative partnerships, risk assessments Roadmaps Science & Network Assessment Monitor Conditions Update Roadmaps Inform Policy & Resource Decisions

UNCLASSIFIED 4 Navy Climate Change Concerns Near-term  Increasing Arctic maritime activity  Partnership opportunities  Energy security initiatives Mid-Term  Sea level rise impact on installations  Water/resource challenges  Potential increase in Humanitarian Assistance/Disaster Response Wild-cards  Ocean acidification  Abrupt climate change  Geoengineering

5 5 Navy Arctic Strategic Objectives II. Safeguard U.S. maritime interests in the region IV. Strengthen existing & foster new cooperative relationships in the region V. Ensure Navy forces are capable and ready III. Protect the American people, our critical infrastructure, & key resources I. Contribute to safety, stability, & security in the region Towards the desired end state: a safe, stable, and secure Arctic Signed by CNO on 21 May 2010 Distribution A: Approved for Public Release; Distribution is Unlimited; Unclassified

UNCLASSIFIED 6 Enabled & informed by sound science UNCLASSIFIED Navy Installation Vulnerability 6 Physical Impacts  Inundation  Wetlands  Erosion patterns & rates  Surface/ground water supplies  Water tables  Tidal flows & currents  Storm & flood damage Eglin Air Force Base Camp Lejeune Camp Pendleton Naval Station Norfolk Naval Base Coronado Navy Study Identify most vulnerable installations Local and regional infrastructure Prioritize spending Maintain mission readiness

UNCLASSIFIED Naval Studies Board Recommendations 7 UNCLASSIFIED Navy action is already underway Support research & development Address emerging technical requirements (e.g. polar ops) Address partnership demands Address naval coastal installation vulnerabilities Prepare for increase in HA/DR, Arctic missions Support ratification of UNCLOS

UNCLASSIFIED 8 It’s all about water The Atlantic

UNCLASSIFIED 9 Partnerships National Unified Operational Prediction Capability (NUOPC) Earth System Prediction Capability (ESPC) Air Force, Navy, NOAA partnership A managed National multi-model ensemble prediction system. A common modeling framework linking operations and research. ESPC is a coherent, national effort to extend atmospheric, oceanic and Arctic predictions from days to months, years and decades to meet current and future Naval warfighting and force readiness requirements. Critical Dependence on Space Observations

UNCLASSIFIED Accomplishments & Developments Navy Arctic Studies - Mission Analysis - Arctic CBA - Arctic Env CBA* 10 OSD-Policy Arctic Report to Congress USN-USCG Staff Talks Arctic Security Roundtable 2012 Naval War College - Fleet Arctic Ops Game Thule AB Resupply ICEX 2011 & Science Ice Exercise Plan Arctic CHOD Conference Arctic Collaborative Workshop Recent Accomplishments: (Feb 2011 – Jan 2012) Key Upcoming Events: Leadership visits & staff talks OSD-Policy Arctic Report to Congress NASA IceBridge Interagency partnership for air-ocean-ice numerical prediction Support for UNCLOS Accession NASA CASI Workshop Conferences USNA Interns & Curriculum Development Naval Studies Board study Asia Pacific Military Medical Conference 2012 Marine Corps University Journal Improve understandingEnsure readiness (resilience)

UNCLASSIFIED 11 Facebook.com/NavyTFCC greenfleet.dodlive.mil/climate-change/

UNCLASSIFIED 12 BACK-UP

UNCLASSIFIED 13 The Team… Engaged nearly 600 individuals from over 175 organizations INTERAGENCY INTERNATIONAL NATIONAL DOD SCIENTIFIC, ACADEMIC, & ANALYTICAL