PRESENTATION ON SUDAN FOR THE PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE JANUARY 2011

2 January 2011 referendum  From 9-15 January 2011, the Referendum in Southern Sudan and in the Diaspora (North Sudan, Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda, Australia, Britain, United States of America, Canada and Egypt) was held.  The Referendum was conducted within the framework of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA).  The Machakos Protocol stated that “at the end of the six-and- a-half year of the Interim Period, Southern Sudan will hold a referendum to decide whether to remain part of the united Sudan or to secede and form a new state”.

January 2011 referendum cont.  International observers such as the Carter Center, European Union, African Union, Intergovernmental Authority on Development and the Arab League, observed referendum.  South Africa sent observers to form part of African Union Referendum Observers.  The polls were held in an orderly and peaceful environment without any major disturbances.  International observers also confirmed that Southern Sudan Referendum met international standards. 3

January 2011 referendum cont.  For the Referendum to be valid, 60% of registered voters must vote.  On 13 January 2011, the Southern Sudan Referendum Bureau (SSRB) confirmed that the threshold figure of 60% was met.  According to the Referendum Law, for South Sudan to secede, 50% plus one vote is required.  The results are expected to be officially announced on 14 February  On 21 January 2011, Southern Sudan Referendum Commission (SSRC) confirmed that the results obtained so far are in favour of secession. 4

January 2011 referendum cont.  Majority of Southern Sudanese who were living in the north already relocated to Southern Sudan.  According to the CPA, the interim period of the Sudan will end in July To this end, Southern Sudan will continue to work with the North to iron out outstanding issues. 5

ABYEI REFERENDUM  The CPA also makes provision for the finalisation of the Abyei referendum and popular consultations between the two regions of South Blue Nile and Nuba Mountains (South Kordofan).  According to the CPA, Southern Sudan and Abyei referenda were supposed to run simultaneously; however, Abyei referendum has been delayed.  During Abyei referendum, the citizens of Abyei will decide either to join North or Southern Sudan. 6

ABYEI REFERENDUM cont.  The National Congress Party (NCP) is of the view that the Misseriya should also vote in the Abyei Referendum whereas the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) views Ngok Dinka as only eligible tribe to vote in the Abyei Referendum.  The African Union High-Level Implementation Panel (AUHIP) has given the NCP and SPLM various options to resolve the Abyei issue.  These include holding the Referendum as planned, giving the territory to the South, ceding it to the North as well as partitioning.  Negotiations of the Abyei Referendum are still underway. 7

ABYEI REFERENDUM cont.  A few days before the start of the Southern Sudan Referendum, clashes between Abyei local police belonging to Ngok Dinka tribe and nomadic tribe of Misseriya erupted in Abyei region.  It is estimated that more than 49 people lost their lives.  On 12 January 2011, the people of Abyei, the Misseriya and Ngok Dinka held a peace conference in South Kordofan Government Head Quarters, during which they discussed their challenges and possible ways forward in resolving their differences. 8

ABYEI REFERENDUM cont.  The conference acknowledged that the two peoples have a very deep relationship and they have lived in peace and co- existed for ages.  The Conference also acknowledged the two peoples share the same water resources and grazing lands and they were encouraged to continue to live and co-exist in peace. 9

POST-REFERENDUM NEGOTIATION  The NCP and SPLM are still battling to reach common ground on issues such as the future of Southern Sudanese living in the North and vice versa, international agreements, assets and liabilities, and debt should the South Sudan becomes independent.  The AUHIP is the lead facilitator in the negotiation process and is supported by IGAD, the IGAD Partners Forum and the United Nations (UN).  The Mekelle Agreement which was signed between the NCP and SPLM in Ethiopia in June 2010 under the joint initiatives of Ethiopia and Norway provided a framework of negotiating post-referendum issues. 10

POST-REFERENDUM NEGOTIATION cont.  The AUHIP released a framework document which outlined four possible ways of approaching post-referendum issues.  These included 1) total separation and independence of the two states, 2) the creation of two countries which would negotiate a framework of co-operation in a confederal arrangement, 3) two separate countries with soft borders that permit freedom of movement for both people and goods as well as 4) total separation with citizens needing visas to cross the border.  Post-referendum negotiations are still underway. 11

DARFUR PEACE PROCESS  The US Presidential Envoy to Sudan, Scott Gration, indicated on 14 January 2011 that the Doha Peace Process should continue as all the efforts are needed to end the war in Darfur region.  The Special Envoy was reacting to the withdrawal of Sudan Government’s negotiating team from Doha at the end of 2010 as the mediator was finalising a peace deal with the Liberation and Justice Movement (LJM) and brokering a truce between the Sudanese Army and the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM). 12

REACTION OF OPPOSITION  The Government remains on high alert to respond in case of any spontaneous protests. Opposition leaders such as Dr Hassan Al Turabi, Dr Sadiq Al Mahdi and Ibrahim Nugud, confirmed publicly that if the Government did not form a broad inclusive national government, the opposition will destroy the Government using all measures at its disposal.  Dr Turabi has since been arrested and is presently incarcerated.  NCP leaders and academia have warned that the opposition plans should not be underestimated. 13

THANK YOU 14