TAMDAR Workshop 2006 – Boulder, Colorado 1 April 13, 2006 UPDATE ON TAMDAR IMPACT ON RUC FORECASTS & RECENT TAMDAR/RAOB COMPARISONS Ed Szoke,* Brian Jamison*,

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

February 19, 2004 Texas Dryline/Dust Storm Event.

Advertisements

AMS Annual Meeting 2007 – San Antonio 11 th IOAS-AOLS 18 January 2007 IMPACT OF TAMDAR ON THE RUC MODEL: A LOOK INTO SOME OF THE STATISTICS WITH CASE STUDIES.

Jess Charba Fred Samplatsky Phil Shafer Meteorological Development Laboratory National Weather Service, NOAA Updated September 06, 2013 LAMP Convection.

SPC Input – EMC GFS Satellite Data Denial Experiment April 2011 Tornado Outbreak Examination of Day 7 and Day 4 Guidance for SPC Severe Weather Outlooks.

Met Brief, Lenny Pfister Nick Heath. Weather today/yesterday.

2015 Fire Season Considerations and Outlook SWCC Predictive Services Updated April 17, 2015.

Aspects of 6 June 2007: A Null “Moderate Risk” of Severe Weather Jonathan Kurtz Department of Geosciences University of Nebraska at Lincoln NOAA/NWS Omaha/Valley,

Acknowledgments Jennifer Fowler, University of Montana, Flight Director UM-BOREALIS Roger DesJardins, Canadian East Fire Region, Incident Meteorologist.

Danielle M. Kozlowski NASA USRP Intern. Background Motivation Forecasting convective weather is a challenge for operational forecasters Current numerical.

The March 01/02 Non-Winter Weather Event: Part 1 Michael W. Cammarata Anthony W. Petrolito.

Radar Animation 9:30 AM – 7:00 PM CST November 10, 2006 …Excerpt from Meteorological Overview of the November 10, 2006 Winter Storm… Illustrate value of.

TAMDAR Alaskan data compiled by Ed Szoke NOAA/CIRA/GSD 2007 cases comparing TAMDAR out of Anchorage (ANC) and other Alaska airports nearby RAOB cases Airports.

Use of TAMDAR Data in a Convective Weather Event Saturday, May 21, 2005.

HISTORIC WINTER STORM (FEBRUARY 8-9, 2013) CONFERENCE CALL Wednesday 2:30 PM February 6, 2013.

Incorporation of TAMDAR into Real-time Local Modeling Tom Hultquist Science & Operations Officer NOAA/National Weather Service Marquette, MI.

1 Aircraft Data: Geographic Distribution, Acquisition, Quality Control, and Availability Work at NOAA/ESRL/GSD and elsewhere.

Hurricane lecture for KMA Ed Szoke 1 October 20, 2004 Overview of 2004 Atlantic Hurricane Season Ed Szoke* NOAA Forecast Systems Laboratory Forecast Research.

Week in Review 8/28/13 to 9/4/13 John Cassano. Weather Situation – Strong upper level ridge over central US – Jet stream well north of US – Weak frontal.

1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP April 01, 2013.

MDSS Lab Prototype: Program Update and Highlights Bill Mahoney National Center For Atmospheric Research (NCAR) MDSS Stakeholder Meeting Boulder, CO 20.

SHINE SEP Campaign Events: Long-term development of solar corona in build-up to the SEP events of 21 April 2002 and 24 August 2002 A. J. Coyner, D. Alexander,

AMS 23 rd Conference on Severe Local Storms/2006 – St. Louis Talk November 8, 2006 AN EVALUATION OF TAMDAR SOUNDINGS IN SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTING.

AMB Verification and Quality Control monitoring Efforts involving RAOB, Profiler, Mesonets, Aircraft Bill Moninger, Xue Wei, Susan Sahm, Brian Jamison.

Composite Analysis of Environmental Conditions Favorable for Significant Tornadoes across Eastern Kansas Joshua M. Boustead, and Barbara E. Mayes NOAA/NWS.

NWS Nashville Weekly Outlook Briefing November 28, 2011.

Isentropic Analysis of January Snowstorm Across Eastern Virginia and Lower Maryland Tim Gingrich and Brian Hurley NOAA/NWS Wakefield VA Isentropic.

2006(-07)TAMDAR aircraft impact experiments for RUC humidity, temperature and wind forecasts Stan Benjamin, Bill Moninger, Tracy Lorraine Smith, Brian.

By Matt Masek March 22, Outline Review of 2011 – 2012 Winter Role of La Niña and Arctic Oscillation Spring Outlook One month (April) outlook Three.

1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP August 9, 2010.

AMS 22 nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/18 th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction – Park City, Utah 1 June 26, 2007 IMPACT.

Transitioning unique NASA data and research technologies to the NWS AIRS Profile Assimilation - Case Study results Shih-Hung Chou, Brad Zavodsky Gary Jedlovec,

Ed Szoke 1 April 12, 2005 TAMDAR Project – April Boulder Meeting Ed Szoke* NOAA Forecast Systems Laboratory *Joint collaboration with the Cooperative Institute.

The 1925 Tri-State Tornado What If It Happened Today? Pat Spoden NOAA/NWS WFO Paducah, Kentucky John Hart NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman, Oklahoma.

Boulder TAMDAR Meeting - Ed Szoke 1 August 25, 2005 RUC – RAOB – TAMDAR SOUNDINGS Ed Szoke* NOAA Forecast Systems Laboratory *Joint collaboration with.

Observations of Characteristics During FP 2007 Ellen Ramirez Department of Marine and Environmental Systems Florida Institute of Technology Melbourne,

Northeast/AWT Widespread rains from 7 Dec 2011 Slow-moving surface low eventually accelerated through the Northeast Some heavy rainfall, particularly after.

Do the NAM and GFS have displacement biases in their MCS forecasts? Charles Yost Russ Schumacher Department of Atmospheric Sciences Texas A&M University.

1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP April 11, 2011.

A collection of cloudsat/LAPS comparisons from late 2006 and 2007 Brief overview of the cases 21 Dec 07, 0745 UTC cloudsat passage – end of a huge snowstorm.

HWT Spring Experiment 2011 model comparisons 1 June OK-MO severe storms Very subtle boundaries, really not a lot of surface forcing But lots of storms.

1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP May 16, 2011.

Analysis of Select Data Biases in North America Dr. Bradley Ballish NCEP/NCO/PMB October 2008 JAG/ODAA Meeting “Where America’s Climate and Weather Services.

Met Brief, Lenny Pfister Nick Heath. Outline Tomorrow’s flight – Convection – Surface temperatures – Convective outflow Friday’s flight – East.

AMS 13 th Conference on Aviation, Range and Aerospace Meteorology – January 2008 – New Orleans, Louisiana 1 January 22, 2008 EFFECT OF TAMDAR ON RUC SHORT-TERM.

STMAS (Aviation Weather Testbed (AWT-2011) case: 22 July 2011 Highlight: Strong storms with a small line move through Chicago (O’Hare Airport) at 15z with.

Flight Planning Smoke/Aerosol Outlook SEAC4RS 2013 Prepared: 08/08/ hours PDT (21:00Z) Forecast period: Thursday (8/8) - Monday (8/12) David Peterson.

Assimilation of AIRS SFOV Profiles in the Rapid Refresh Rapid Refresh domain Haidao Lin Ming Hu Steve Weygandt Stan Benjamin Assimilation and Modeling.

SPC Mesoscale Analysis (aka “sfcOA”) Performance and Validation Efforts Steven Weiss, Israel Jirak, Andy Dean, Greg Carbin, Phillip Bothwell, and Corey.

The Over Forecast Advisory Event on St. Patricks Day Weekend 2013 NOAA’s National Weather Service Ron W. Przybylinski Science and Operations Officer Fred.

Flight Planning Smoke/Aerosol Outlook SEAC4RS 2013 Prepared: 08/10/ hours PDT (22:00Z) Forecast period: Monday (8/12) David Peterson Marine Meteorology.

1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP July 12, 2010.

The African Monsoon Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 29 June 2009 For more information, visit:

2004 Developments in Aviation Forecast Guidance from the RUC Stan Benjamin Steve Weygandt NOAA / Forecast Systems Lab NY Courtesy:

Intelligent Use of LAPS By Ed Szoke 16 May 2001.

1 Recent AMDAR (MDCRS/ACARS) Activities at GSD New AMDAR-RUC database that helps evaluate AMDAR data quality Optimization study that suggests data can.

1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP December 27,

1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP January 02,

National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office Mobile - Pensacola Special Briefing Tropical Storm Lee Special Briefing Tropical Storm Lee 4 PM CDT Sunday.

1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP January 11,

AMS 22 nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/18 th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction – Park City, Utah 1 June 26, 2007 EVALUATION.

AMS 22 nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/18 th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction – Park City, Utah 1 June 26, 2007 IMPACT.

1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP January 31,

NWS Mobile / Pensacola Special Briefing NEW NUMBER Please call: Conference ID #: We had to increase the number of lines to accommodate.

60 min Nowcasts 60 min Verification Cold Front Regime

Atmospheric Stability Analysis

Aircraft weather observations: Impacts for regional NWP models

The November 26, 2014 banded snowfall case in southern NY

Edward I. Tollerud1, Brian D. Jamison2, Fernando Caracena1, Steven E

Rita Roberts and Jim Wilson National Center for Atmospheric Research

Presentation transcript:

TAMDAR Workshop 2006 – Boulder, Colorado 1 April 13, 2006 UPDATE ON TAMDAR IMPACT ON RUC FORECASTS & RECENT TAMDAR/RAOB COMPARISONS Ed Szoke,* Brian Jamison*, Bill Moninger, Stan Benjamin, Randy Collander*, and Tracy Smith* NOAA/ESRL Global Systems Division *Joint collaboration with the Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO

TAMDAR Workshop 2006 – Boulder, Colorado 2 April 13, 2006 Outline Using the high-resolution TAMDAR data available since 30 Mar Examine impact on RUC forecasts Subjective evaluation concentrating on short-range precipitation forecasts Focus on 6-h accumulated precipitation forecasts ending at 0000 and 0600 UTC (but other fields also examined) For 1800 UTC runs compare forecast soundings with observed soundings Models used: identical RUC-20 km runs with and without TAMDAR Compare TAMDAR sounding quality and detail TAMDAR soundings compared to each other TAMDAR soundings compared to nearby RAOBs Emphasis on the kinds of sharp structures that can be resolved with the higher resolution TAMDAR data

TAMDAR Workshop 2006 – Boulder, Colorado 3 April 13, Mar 2100 UTC: Deepening storm with severe weather & ND snow System is at north/west edge of TAMDAR to within network (in WI/IL). In ND rain changing to snow. Will examine precipitation fields and CAPE and helicity.

TAMDAR Workshop 2006 – Boulder, Colorado 4 April 13, 2006 Display of the TAMDAR coverage from 2100 UTC 30 Mar to 0000 UTC 31 Mar

TAMDAR Workshop 2006 – Boulder, Colorado 5 April 13, 2006 TAMDAR/RAOB comparisons for 0000 UTC 31 Mar 06 – Minneapolis Good overall agreement with the sounding and all TAMDARs nicely resolve the dry layer centered at 800 mb

TAMDAR Workshop 2006 – Boulder, Colorado 6 April 13, 2006 TAMDAR/RAOB comparisons for 0000 UTC 31 Mar 06 – Minneapolis The most variability in this set is from the flight heading off to the southeast.

TAMDAR Workshop 2006 – Boulder, Colorado 7 April 13, 2006 AMDAR/RAOB comparisons for 0000 UTC 31 Mar 06 – Minneapolis For comparison to TAMDAR, here are a few AMDAR temperature profiles compared to the MSP RAOB

TAMDAR Workshop 2006 – Boulder, Colorado 8 April 13, 2006 TAMDAR/RAOB comparisons for 0000 UTC 31 Mar 06 – Peoria, Illinois Here we do see a difference between the ascent and descent soundings (that track in pretty much the same location and not far off in time), with a better match to the RAOB for the TAMDAR ascent.

TAMDAR Workshop 2006 – Boulder, Colorado 9 April 13, April 0000 UTC: Deepening storm with severe weather & R+ High risk severe wx day NE to eastern KS. Also heavy rains in band e-w across MSP. Will examine precipitation fields and CAPE and helicity.

TAMDAR Workshop 2006 – Boulder, Colorado 10 April 13, 2006 Comparison of 6-h RUC precipitation forecasts with and without TAMDAR for runs initialized at 1800 UTC on 6 April 06. Two main differences are highlighted: 1) In MN/nrn IA with more precip in TAMDAR run 2) More of a line of precip in eastern NE in the TAMDAR run Without TAMDARWith TAMDAR >0.25”>0.5”>1.0”>0.10”

TAMDAR Workshop 2006 – Boulder, Colorado 11 April 13, 2006 Observed 6h precipitation ending 0000 UTC 7 April 06 TAMDAR run looks better for having more precip near MSP. Similarly, in eastern KS more precip in the TAMDAR run is also better.

TAMDAR Workshop 2006 – Boulder, Colorado 12 April 13, 2006 Comparison of 6-h RUC CAPE and CIN forecasts with and without TAMDAR for runs initialized at 1800 UTC on 6 April 06. Not a lot of differences in the CAPE fields although more CIN across IL in the TAMDAR run. Without TAMDARWith TAMDAR

TAMDAR Workshop 2006 – Boulder, Colorado 13 April 13, 2006 Analyzed CAPE from the NAM valid 0000 UTC 7 April 06

TAMDAR Workshop 2006 – Boulder, Colorado 14 April 13, 2006 Comparison of 6-h RUC Helicity forecasts with and without TAMDAR for runs initialized at 1800 UTC on 6 April 06. A few differences are seen (northern IA, eastern KY). Analysis (next) perhaps favors TAMDAR run slightly.... Without TAMDAR With TAMDAR

TAMDAR Workshop 2006 – Boulder, Colorado 15 April 13, 2006 Analyzed SREH from the NAM valid 0000 UTC 7 April 06

TAMDAR Workshop 2006 – Boulder, Colorado 16 April 13, April 1800 UTC: S torm intensifying with severe weather developing Next we'll examine some TAMDAR/ RAOB comparisons for 1200 UTC and for the special soundings launched at 1800 UTC for MSP and LZK (Little Rock, AR).

TAMDAR Workshop 2006 – Boulder, Colorado 17 April 13, 2006 TAMDAR/RAOB comparisons for 1200 UTC 6 April 06 – Minneapolis Good agreement between the two descent TAMDARs

TAMDAR Workshop 2006 – Boulder, Colorado 18 April 13, 2006 TAMDAR/RAOB comparisons for 1200 UTC 6 April 06 – Minneapolis Same with this set

TAMDAR Workshop 2006 – Boulder, Colorado 19 April 13, 2006 TAMDAR/RAOB comparisons for 1200 UTC 6 April 06 – Minneapolis Also good agreement with a descent/ascent pair.

TAMDAR Workshop 2006 – Boulder, Colorado 20 April 13, 2006 TAMDAR/RAOB comparisons for 1200 UTC 6 April 06 – Minneapolis The main disagreement is found for the 2 TAMDARs heading south, but note these are ~80 min apart in time.

TAMDAR Workshop 2006 – Boulder, Colorado 21 April 13, 2006 TAMDAR/RAOB comparisons for Minneapolis: time series Nice depiction of the effect of sustained lift on the strong inversion centered near 850 mb.

TAMDAR Workshop 2006 – Boulder, Colorado 22 April 13, 2006 TAMDAR/RAOB comparisons for 1200 UTC 6 April 06 – Little Rock/Nashville Good overall agreement with the sounding and all TAMDARs.

TAMDAR Workshop 2006 – Boulder, Colorado 23 April 13, 2006 TAMDAR/RAOB comparisons for 1800 UTC 6 April 06 – Little Rock/Nashville Note how well the sharp inversion is resolved near 900 mb, and the very sharp dry layer above this.

TAMDAR Workshop 2006 – Boulder, Colorado 24 April 13, 2006 TAMDAR/RAOB comparisons for 1200 UTC 6 April 06 – Little Rock/Nashville Similar good resolution with this set of soundings a little while later.

TAMDAR Workshop 2006 – Boulder, Colorado 25 April 13, 2006 TAMDAR coverage for UTC 6 April 06 Coverage doesn't go quite to Little Rock but is close.

TAMDAR Workshop 2006 – Boulder, Colorado 26 April 13, 2006 The next day: 7 April 2100 UTC - Severe weather moves into eastern/southern part of TAMDAR network Another high risk day, this time shifted east to western TN/KY. By 2100 UTC 4 tornado watch boxes were already in place.

TAMDAR Workshop 2006 – Boulder, Colorado 27 April 13, 2006 Southern TAMDAR coverage for 7 April 06 Jackson Little Rock BNA

TAMDAR Workshop 2006 – Boulder, Colorado 28 April 13, 2006 Comparison of 6-h RUC precipitation forecasts with and without TAMDAR for runs initialized at 1800 UTC on 7 April 06. More precipitation is produced by the run with TAMDAR across southern IN into OH. The run without TAMDAR has more precip in nw AL. Without TAMDAR With TAMDAR >0.25”>0.5”>1.0”>0.10”

TAMDAR Workshop 2006 – Boulder, Colorado 29 April 13, 2006 Observed 6h precipitation ending 0000 UTC 8 April 06 TAMDAR run looks better for having more precip in IN/OH

TAMDAR Workshop 2006 – Boulder, Colorado 30 April 13, 2006 TAMDAR/RAOB comparisons for 1200 UTC 7 Apr 06 – Jackson, MS Sharp dry layer above the inversion is really captured well.

TAMDAR Workshop 2006 – Boulder, Colorado 31 April 13, 2006 TAMDAR/RAOB comparisons for ~ UTC 7 Apr 06 – Jackson, MS Sharp moisture changes between 700 to 750 mb are shown in special RAOBs and TAMDARs. Also, good agreement with the moisture profile down low.

TAMDAR Workshop 2006 – Boulder, Colorado 32 April 13, 2006 TAMDAR time series for Memphis leading up to initial tornadoes Nice time series showing both the removal of the early morning cap near 850 mb and then the development of a much more moist and unstable layer in the lowest 100 mb.

TAMDAR Workshop 2006 – Boulder, Colorado 33 April 13, 2006 Summary RUC forecasts with and without TAMDAR showed some differences Generally did not find cases as dramatic as those shown at AMS But the differences that were found usually favored the TAMDAR runs For other cases recently (not shown) differences were minor Sounding comparisons... Showed 3 different strong severe weather days Overall consistency between TAMDAR soundings is fairly good Higher resolution data is able to nicely capture very sharp moist/dry layers TAMDAR soundings continue to show value for forecast applications Nice Memphis time series leading up to the initial TN tornadoes last Friday