A Major Climate/Ecosystem Shift Observed in the Northern Bering Sea James E. Overland1, Jacqueline M. Grebmeier2, Sue E. Moore3, Ed V. Farley4, Eddy C.

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Presentation transcript:

A Major Climate/Ecosystem Shift Observed in the Northern Bering Sea James E. Overland1, Jacqueline M. Grebmeier2, Sue E. Moore3, Ed V. Farley4, Eddy C. Carmack5, L.W. Cooper2, K E. Frey.6, J.H, Helle4, F.A. McLaughlin5, S. Lyn McNutt7, Phyllis Stabeno1 1 NOAA/Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Seattle, WA, 2 The University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN 3NOAA/NMFS, Alaska Fisheries Science Center, Seattle, WA 4 NOAA/NMFS, Auke Bay Laboratory, Juneau, AK 5Institute of Ocean Sciences,, Sidney, Canada 6 Department of Geography, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 7University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK

POSTERS Igor Belkin Bering Sea Frontal Pattern Douglas Dasher Aleutian Islands, Coastal Environmental Monitoring Assessment Program

Recent loss of sea ice in southern Bering Sea –Spring

Vertically Averaged Temperature (°C) at M2: 2 deg C increase in winter after 2000 Above freezing point Stabeno

Southern Bering Sea Ecosystem Changes Warm temperatures favor pollock over Arctic species

Northern Bering Sea Ice Concentration ( Aprils ) and St. Lawrence Temperature Changes Coming out in Science

Change in Benthic Biology SW of St. Lawrence Island -Grebmeier

10 M new Salmon in the N. Bering Sea in following increase northward movement of pollock - Helle

[M. Webber-USFWS] Walrus herd in the Chukchi Sea– June 2002 Schematic of food web in the northern Bering and Chukchi Seas [Grebmeier and Dunton 2000] Clam food in walrus stomachs [photos courtesy G. Sheffield]

Persistent Arctic Changes Overland and Wang 2005a Wang and Overland 2004 Sea Ice Decreasing Sept deg C Warm Surface Temperatures Tundra shown in Pink From NSIDC Tundra Decreasing

Arctic Oscillation (AO) Index Thompson and Wallace, 1998 Geo. Res. Let. EOF 1 Sea Level Pressure

Temperature Anomalies (PNA+ ) (AO+) (Arctic Warm) Pacific North American Arctic Oscillation Climate Patterns

New Climate Pattern Air Temperature Wind/Pressure fields Overland and Wang, GRL, 2005b

It’s too warm! Future: Continued ice reductions due to Arctic feedback processes (winds, clouds, ocean currents) Or: Shift to different climate pattern within next 5 years with eventual return to warm pattern Thanks for support from NOAA Arctic Research Program North Pacific Research Board

Spotted seals are found much further in from the ice edge 300 km vs. 25 km