Solar Shield project - lessons learned and advances made (ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/Solar_Shield) Pulkkinen, A., M. Hesse, S. Habib, F. Policelli, B. Damsky,

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Presentation transcript:

Solar Shield project - lessons learned and advances made (ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/Solar_Shield) Pulkkinen, A., M. Hesse, S. Habib, F. Policelli, B. Damsky, L. Van der Zel, D. Fugate, W. Jacobs, E. Creamer European Space Weather Week, Nov 15-19, 2010, Brugge, Belgium. 1

Contents Solar Shield overview. Solar Shield forecasting system. –Level 1 + approach. The first tailored first-principles- based 2-3 day lead-time forecasts. –Level 2 + approach. The first first-principles-based min lead-time GIC forecasts. Coupling of the system to the SUNBURST research support tool. List of additional activities. Team recommendations. 2 European Space Weather Week, Nov 15-19, 2010, Brugge, Belgium.

Solar Shield overview In Solar Shield, we developed a system to forecast space weather effects on the North American power grid; three-year project funded by NASA’s Applied Sciences Program. Focus on first-principles-based space weather modeling. NASA/GSFC/CCMC and Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) the key players. Final report was delivered to NASA Applied Sciences Program on April 1, System has been running in real-time since February The system will keep running and the development continues. 3 European Space Weather Week, Nov 15-19, 2010, Brugge, Belgium.

System requirements (summary) Two-level GIC forecasts: –Level 1 providing 1-2 day lead-time. –Level 2 providing min. lead-time. Coupling to EPRI’s SUNBURST research support tool. 4 Used by the SUNBURST member utilities to monitor GIC. European Space Weather Week, Nov 15-19, 2010, Brugge, Belgium.

Level 1 forecasts 5 European Space Weather Week, Nov 15-19, 2010, Brugge, Belgium.

Level 1 forecasts April 3, Solar observations of eruptive events are used to compute “cone model” parameters. SOHO LASCO C3 and STEREO COR2 data used. Plasma “cone” introduced to the inner boundary of a heliospheric MHD model. Model propagates the disturbance to the Earth. Computations carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center. MHD output at the Earth used in a statistical model providing probabilistic estimate for GIC at individual nodes of the power grid. GIC forecast file is generated. Pulkkinen et al. (Space Weather, 2009)

Level 1 improvement: automatic determination of the cone model parameters 7 Sequence of binary images generated from LASCO C3 European Space Weather Week, Nov 15-19, 2010, Brugge, Belgium. Pulkkinen et al. (Solar Physics, 2009)

Level 2 forecasts 8 European Space Weather Week, Nov 15-19, 2010, Brugge, Belgium.

April 3, Lagrange 1 observations used as boundary conditions for magnetospheric MHD. ACE data used. Magnetospheric MHD model used to model the magnetospheric-ionospheric dynamics. Computations carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center. Magnetospheric MHD output used to drive geomagnetic induction and GIC code providing GIC at individual nodes of the power grid. GIC forecast file is generated. Pulkkinen et al. (Annales Geophysicae, 2007)

Level 2 improvement: usage of inner magnetospheric models 10 European Space Weather Week, Nov 15-19, 2010, Brugge, Belgium.

11 KAMELEON interpolation library Linear interpolation: MHD ionosphere grid- CRCM ionosphere grid KAMELEON interpolation library CRCM run MHD BATSRUS run at the CCMC MHD B-field B-field at the whole CRCM region electric field potential in the ionosphere CRCM potential in the ionosphere at the CRCM polar boundary MHD T, n Equatorial n,T at the CRCM polar boundary CRCM polar boundary Region II Birkeland currents3-D H+, e- fluxesSelf-consistent E-field European Space Weather Week, Nov 15-19, 2010, Brugge, Belgium. Buzulukova et al. (JGR, 2010)

Level 2 improvement: usage of inner magnetospheric models 12 Hours from the beginning of August 11, European Space Weather Week, Nov 15-19, 2010, Brugge, Belgium.

Coupling to the SUNBURST research support tool 13 % Level 1 GIC forecast produced by REALTIMEGIC_LEVEL1 % % The format of the data is as follows: % lat1 lon1 lat2 lon2... % yy mm dd hh mi GIC1low GIC1high GIC2low GIC2high... % % Level 2 GIC forecast produced by REALTIMEGIC_LEVEL2 % % The format of the data is as follows: % lat1 lon1 lat2 lon2... % European Space Weather Week, Nov 15-19, 2010, Brugge, Belgium.

List of additional activities Detailed V&V using historical events. Development of the real-time validation tool. Analysis of transformer dissolved gas measurements carried out during strong storms. Analysis of economic impacts of large GIC events. (coupled with V&V analyses) For details, see Benchmark Report (April 1, 2010). Collaboration within EU FP7 EURISGIC project. 14 European Space Weather Week, Nov 15-19, 2010, Brugge, Belgium.

Team recommendations Level 2 part of the system is applicable only to high-latitude locations. Extension of the forecasting system to cover lower latitudes is needed for the application of the Level 2 approach to the US power grid. SUNBURST GIC dataset played a critical role in the establishment of the forecasting system. Installation of new GIC monitoring sites especially to the continental US would enable expansion and increased utility of the newly developed GIC forecasting system. Forecasting system (as many space weather applications) relies on aging ACE and SOHO spacecraft. Operational capacity providing robust streams of in situ solar wind and remote solar (coronagraph) data needs to be established. 15 European Space Weather Week, Nov 15-19, 2010, Brugge, Belgium. EURISGIC collaboration