Science, Society, & Outcomes: Building a New Basis for Meteorology and Climate Science by Michael M. Crow Professor of Science Policy, School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University Chair, Center for Science, Policy, & Outcomes in Washington D.C. Executive Chair, Columbia Earth Institute Executive Vice Provost, Columbia University

Science History 5,000 Years Before Pre-Science Look at nature. Make educated guesses as to how it works. Traditional Science Study nature. Hypothesize how it works. Test hypothesis. Make a very educated guess as to how it works and what it means. Build theory (predictions). Integrated Science Traditional science Expand and link Observation Experimentation Modeling Integrate with natural science. Integrate beyond natural science.

Science as Prediction Pre-Science The Nile floods every year in the Spring. No understanding Lots of adaptation Traditional Science Hurricane distribution patterns and models of the tropical Atlantic indicate that the 2002 hurricane season can produce X hurricanes. Integrated Science Anchovy fishing guidelines and limits for 2009 have been established for the west coast of South America by the regional fishing council in anticipation of the Grade 4 Ocean Ecosystem Impact as determined by the Integrated Institute for Social Technical Impact Assessment.

Present Model in Meteorology and Climate Science Traditional Science PredictionsInformation

Science and Outcomes: Limits to Prediction Approach Predictive skill needs to be known. Decision makers need to have some experience with understanding and using predictions. The characteristic time of the predicted event needs to be short. More likely to use predictions when there are limited alternatives. Use predictions when outcomes of alternative actions are understood and uncertainties constrained (e.g., effects of false positives, negatives).

Desired Model for Meteorology and Climate Science Specific Tools/Understanding to attain Outcome Outcome Traditional Science Key Questions

Science and Outcomes: Commonly Accepted and Stated Social Outcomes in Meteorology and Climate Science Impact Zone Ensure environmental sustainability. Enhance economic and social development in less developed areas of the United States and beyond. Improve long-term quality of life through “Atmosphere Management.”

Science and Outcomes: Types of Integration Outcome What science needs to be done to move toward this outcome? Ensure Environmental Sustainability Integrate Ecosystem Science and Climate Science Everglades Sustainability Forecast Colorado River Basin Alert Integrate Physical System Models and Meteorology Habitat Threat Alerts Slope Stability Alerts (Hurricane Mitch) Integrate Fishing Management Science and Meteorology and Climate Science Real Time Fishing Limits

Science and Outcomes: New Forecasts Outcome What science needs to be done to produce new forecasts? Improve Quality of Life Through Atmospheric Management Local Regional Carbon Balance Forecast (Socioeconomic/Physical/Life Science Forecast)

Science and Outcomes: New Science Questions Outcome What science needs to be done to move toward this outcome? Enhance Economic and Social Development What is the relationship between microclimate, weather, climate, and chemical transport in the atmosphere in regions beginning to industrialize?

Summary Time for meteorology and climate science to accelerate movement to integrated science stage. Time to focus on outcomes as a new strong driver of science and forecasts. Time to embrace complexity