International and National Abatement Strategies for Transboundary air Pollution New concepts and methods for effect-based strategies on transboundary air.

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Presentation transcript:

International and National Abatement Strategies for Transboundary air Pollution New concepts and methods for effect-based strategies on transboundary air pollution

International and National Abatement Strategies for Transboundary air Pollution ASTA General objectives To produce scientific material of importance for international abatement strategies of transboundary air pollution Support the revisions of the Gothenburg Protocol and the NEC directive To develop tools for national strategies within sectors where transboundary air pollution is of importance.

International and National Abatement Strategies for Transboundary air Pollution Phase 1: Source effect relationships Dynamic modelling of acidification Experimental studies on eutrophication Ozone level 2 for crops and forests Regional particle composition Social science. Interlink between science and policy Centre for evaluation and assessment

ASTA Synthesis Report Available in pdf from Or from Jenny Arnell

Centre activities during phase 1 –Saltsjöbaden workshop 2000 –Expert group on dynamic modelling, 3 meetings –Workshop on validation of emission inventories –Workshop on CL for ozone effects to vegetation –EMEP assessment report

International and National Abatement Strategies for Transboundary air Pollution IAM - recovery of lakes, target load function Critical load and Target Load Function showing the combined deposition levels of sulphate and nitrate at which the ANC >80  eq/l criteria is not reached by 2020, 2030, 2040, Example for one lake in central Sweden

International and National Abatement Strategies for Transboundary air Pollution Acidification and recovery - modelling forest soils Regional dynamic assessment of pH in layer 2 at different years using the Gothenburg protocol as the future deposition scenario, assuming constant deposition between 2010 and 2100

International and National Abatement Strategies for Transboundary air Pollution Ground level ozone - relative growth in relation to ozone uptake or concentration Impact of ozone on the total biomass of young Norway spruce trees in relation to daylight AOT40 and cumulative ozone uptake.The young Norway spruce trees were exposed in open-top chambers during four growing seasons to different ozone concentrations in combination with drought stress and in combination with phosphorous deficiency.

Programme management Source-effect relations, Indicators and Target settings Uncertainty, Transparency and Communication Realisation, Costs and Benefits Support to National Strategies National reference group Phase 2 of ASTA

International and National Abatement Strategies for Transboundary air Pollution Phase 2 of ASTA. Four main Themes Theme 1. Source-effect relationships, indicators and target setting Theme 2. Realisation, costs and benefits Theme 3. Uncertainties, transparency and communication Theme 4. Support to national strategies

Cost Benefit assessment Mapping Test of indicator Scenario studies Source- effect relations. Choice of indicator Choice of indicator Test of indicator Test of indicator Uncert. assessment Dynamic model development Choice of indicator Biodiversity Particles/health Acdification Ozone/veg. Theme & 4 2 & 4

International and National Abatement Strategies for Transboundary air Pollution Theme Source-effect relationships, indicators and target setting Activities 1. Dynamic models for recovery from acidification 2. Implementing level II for ozone 3. Source-receptor relationships for long range transported particles 4. Model development for assessing biodiversity changes in terrestrial ecosystems and for combined ecosystem effects

International and National Abatement Strategies for Transboundary air Pollution Theme Realisation, Costs and Benefits Activities 1. Realisation of international agreements EMEP Assessment report 2. Valuation of effects Acidification Ozone effects to trees and crops 3. Scenarios and control measures

International and National Abatement Strategies for Transboundary air Pollution Realisation, costs and benefits. Deliverables (preliminary) Assessment of costs and benefits of reduced emissions and their economic value for 1. acidification, 2. ozone effects to crops and forests Tentatively 3. nitrogen deposition, 4. atmospheric concentrations of pollutants. Reports on linearity relations between emission reductions, their costs and benefits.

International and National Abatement Strategies for Transboundary air Pollution Theme Uncertainties, transparency and communication Activities 1. Scientific credibility in a complex society 2. Uncertainties in source effects relationships and their influence on abatement strategies 3. Communication 4. Overall evaluation of regional air pollution strategies

International and National Abatement Strategies for Transboundary air Pollution Uncertainties, transparency and communication. Deliverables A conceptual model for how legitimacy is achieved in the international negotiations on air pollution including the roles of basic science, integrated assessment models and the different levels in the policy work. An analysis of the relations between uncertainties in data, compartment models and integrated assessment models, and the robustness in control scenarios.

International and National Abatement Strategies for Transboundary air Pollution Uncertainties, transparency and communication. Deliverables Model tool and assessments on uncertainties within the area of ecosystem effects. Integrate uncertainties in analyses of robustness in various strategies. A workshop on scientific production and assessments in relation to the policy needs in CAFE and CLRTAP - “Saltsjöbaden 2”. Additional workshops

International and National Abatement Strategies for Transboundary air Pollution Support to national strategies. Deliverables Support to the revision of the Swedish national environmental quality objectives Assessment of particle emissions (amounts and composition) from biomass-based energy production in comparison to other major sources. Toolbox for regional assessment of sustainable potential for harvest of biomass from forests considering interactions with air pollution

International and National Abatement Strategies for Transboundary air Pollution Support to national strategies. Deliverables Model development and assessment of interactions between air pollutants (nitrogen, acidification, ozone), forestry and carbon sinks in the forest ecosystem. Assessment of long term effects of whole tree harvesting on the recovery from acidification and eutrophication in forest soils in Sweden.