Integrated Ecological Assessment February 28, 2006 Long-Term Plan Annual Update Carl Fitz Recovery Model Development and Calibration

Integrated Ecological Assessment Integrated Ecological Assessment: Status of the Everglades Landscape Model Model Applications Support Unit, Hydrologic and Environmental Systems Modeling Department

Integrated Ecological Assessment ELM and the Long-Term Plan “predict recovery of existing P gradients...” “predict changes in P gradients as result of perturbation...” “predict changes in P gradients in response to new inputs...” predict effects of STA “by-pass” flows or “changed discharge points” compare “with-project to future-without” to assess benefits does not directly assess “need for additional STAs or BMPs” evaluate “regional system changes in P gradients”... due to management actions

Integrated Ecological Assessment Presentation: 1.What is ELM? 2.How can it be applied? 3.How well does it work? 4.Is it ready for external review?

Integrated Ecological Assessment ELM Goals: Integrate hydrology, biology, and nutrient cycling in spatially explicit, dynamic simulations Provide a framework for collaborative field research and other modeling efforts Understand and predict the long-term, relative responses of the landscape to different management scenarios Develop a modeling tool for integrated ecological assessment of water management scenarios for Everglades restoration

Integrated Ecological Assessment ELM Objectives: Specific Performance Measures Measures Phosphorus: concentration in surface water Phosphorus: accumulation in ecosystem...Other ecosystem measures with model updates Scales Temporal: Annual trends over decadal time periods Spatial: 1-km resolution gradients across tens of km

Integrated Ecological Assessment ELM Design: Integrating ecological interactions 1. Boxes change in response to each other 2. Arrows denote simple model “mechanisms” of WHY things change 3. Using simple “WHYs”, model is not restricted to statistical “fits” of past behavior 4. Thus, apply understanding to predict future recovery, restoration

Integrated Ecological Assessment ELM Design: Overview Hydrology Requires daily flow data through water control structures (observed, or from model such as SFWMM) ELM distributes water & nutrients across marshes and canals Water Quality Dynamics of primary phosphorus mechanisms in marshes Changing soils and plants greatly affect marsh water quality Ecology Theory: Considers theories of basic ecosystem structure and function Practice: Simple-ecosystem interactions (i.e. the WHYs) capture the long term ecological gradients

Integrated Ecological Assessment

Integrated Ecological Assessment Presentation: 1.What is ELM? 2.How can it be applied? 3.How well does it work? 4.Is it ready for external review?

Integrated Ecological Assessment (hypothetical example) Historical scenario, : actual flows actual (historical) phosphorus inflow concentrations Hypothetical scenario, : actual flows 10 ppb phosphorus inflow concentrations Use model to indicate the likely spatial reduction in phosphorus impacts across the Greater Everglades, with lower inflow phosphorus concentrations Example Application: What might have happened if clean water had entered the Everglades in the past?

Integrated Ecological Assessment Example Application: What might have happened if clean water had entered the Everglades in the past?

Integrated Ecological Assessment Example Application: project alternative comparisons Everglades gradient FLOW 2 km 4 km 6 km 8 km STA 3/4 outflow

Integrated Ecological Assessment Example Application CERP 2050wProj simulation: 5 scenarios, with STA outflow concentrations ranging from 10 to 30 ppb FLOW 2 km 4 km 6 km 8 km STA 3/4 outflow Evaluate Everglades gradient downstream of STA 3/4 outflow Atmospheric Load

Integrated Ecological Assessment Presentation: 1.What is ELM? 2.How can it be applied? 3.How well does it work? 4.Is it ready for external review?

Integrated Ecological Assessment How well does ELM work? Water Quality: Regional analysis of phosphorus (TP) concentration in surface water median bias of predictions in marsh = 1 ppb of TP

Integrated Ecological Assessment How well does ELM work? Water Quality: Matching gradients of TP concentration in surface water

Integrated Ecological Assessment How well does ELM work? Ecology: Matching gradients of ecosystem phosphorus accumulation rate Ecology: Matching gradients of soil peat accretion rate

Integrated Ecological Assessment Ecology: Patterns of other ecological variables

Integrated Ecological Assessment How well does ELM work? Hydrology Regional calibration/validation performance comparable to SFWMM Water Quality Effectively predict long term trends in phosphorus gradients 1 ppb = median bias of TP concentration in marsh surface water, across region over a 20 year period Ecology Effectively predict long term trends in ecological gradients: Long-term phosphorus accumulation gradient is good match to observed Other gradients and patterns of important ecological variables evaluated for consistency with available data

Integrated Ecological Assessment Presentation: 1.What is ELM? 2.How can it be applied? 3.How well does it work? 4.Is it ready for external review?

Integrated Ecological Assessment Documentation & Review Existing Documentation Description of Everglades, objectives and conceptual model Verbal, mathematical, and graphical description of algorithms All source code functions & variables documented (Doxygen) All input data documented, including “metadata” Numerical & graphical summaries of calibration/validation Comprehensive sensitivity analysis, aspects of uncertainty User’s Guide Peer Review Peer-reviewed science publications, Multi-agency review by CERP RECOVER Team, 2002 Independent peer review, upcoming(?)

Integrated Ecological Assessment Value of ELM The model is capable of the following applications: CERP “predict average annual water column (or soil) phosphorus concentrations in a spatial pattern...” EFA/Long-Term Plan “predict recovery of existing P gradients...” “predict changes in P gradients as result of perturbation...” “predict changes in P gradients in response to new inputs...” predict effects of STA “by-pass” flows or “changed discharge points” compare “with-project to future-without” to assess benefits Operations compare “P gradient changes”...due to LO... “diversion to WCAs” evaluate “regional system changes in P gradients”... due to management actions

Integrated Ecological Assessment Supplementary slides follow The end

Integrated Ecological Assessment Ecological Processes

Integrated Ecological Assessment Ecological Processes