Real-time system Expert Team on Operational Ocean Forecast Systems

An opportunity to determine the best way forward for OOFS

Real-time system An opportunity to determine the best way forward for OOFS OOFS requires continuous development path to reach the quality of services users require Consolidation and transition maturing GODAE systems to full operation

Real-time system Proposed linkage to GOV-ST - Members of GOV-ST be encouraged to contribute/respond to ET-OOFS related activities - ET-OOFS and GOV-ST to be jointly presented to stakeholders and international forum - ET-OOFS and GOV-ST maintain communication on matters relating to OOFS of potential interest to either group - TT-OSE, TT-Inter-comparison have a joint set of tasks from both groups - An ET-OOFS member be a member of the TT’s to lead the ET-OOFS tasks within the TT

Background Ocean forecasting requires integration within JCOMM SPA is tasked with coordinating integration of services Expert teams are how SPA achieves its goals SPA proposed the formation of ET-OOFS, Dec 2007 “Objective transition mature GODAE systems full operation” JCOMM-MAN approved the proposal ET-OOFS has been formed to carry out the ToR ET is under SPA and is Service focused

Staying focused It will not be productive to debate the formation of ET-OOFS It is critical that ET-OOFS not be obstructed in achieving its ToR. GOV-ST need to be unanimous in support for ET-OOFS It will be critical that all members of ET-OOFS and GOV-ST provide a unified position to the stakeholders and wider community These groups must complement and not be engaged in a competition Debate for how best to serve the stakeholders for ocean forecasting services will occur leading up to JCOMM-IV

GODAE is familiar having a 10 year history ET-OOFS is new and a possible source of confusion Propose that we focus on: Clarify JCOMM/SPA/ET structure Determine how GOV-ST can support ET-OOFS Propose clarification to the roles and responsibilities Propose a joint way forward for OO Note ET-OOFS will meet post GOV-ST to discuss the proposal

Real-time system Key themes - coordination, regulation and management - fully integrated observing, data management and service systems - responsive to interdisciplinary user needs - outreach and capacity building - improved products for MSS, MAES, SI (WMO) Joint WMO-IOC technical commission for Oceanography and Marine Meteorology

Real-time system IOC WM O JCOMM-MAN SPAOPA ETOOFSETWS Family tree – not static, preparing for JCOMMIII

Services Programme Area Facilitate the development and application of globally distributed marine meteorological and oceanographics services Achieved in partnership with the user community and other programme areas SPA is oriented towards forecasting products and associated services, user interaction and feedback

Real-time system Expert teams Goal: Improve the quality of services provided by the agencies of member states in their respective theme Types of Objectives: Develop guidance for operational agencies to encourage adoption of best practices and standards for services across agencies Develop and maintain requirements documentation for operational systems Monitor and evaluate effectiveness of services Coordinate actions to address identified deficiencies in services

ET-OOFS: Current ToR – under review for JCOMMIII

ET-OOFS TOR - overview The guide to operational ocean forecasting – WMO requires the development of guides for operational agencies who intend to support services. ET’s develop these guides. Provide guidance to teams on the application, nomenclature, symbology and standards used by OOFS – few standards exist for presenting forecast information, symbols used or guidance on application of products. ET-OOFS will seek to coordinate the development and adoption of such standards.

ET-OOFS TOR - overview Develop and operate an inter-comparison framework for NRT monitoring of OOFS – ET-OOFS will work with the community to transfer mature inter-comparison metrics and observation metrics developed under GODAE and GODAE OceanView and maintain the set of metrics to be performed and reported by each operational system. ET-OOFS will report in real-time and in summary on these metrics. Work effectively with the science community developing OOFS – ET-OOFS will attend GOV-ST and present on its activities and proposals. ET-OOFS will seek coordination with GOV-ST. It is proposed that Task teams – OSE and Inter-comparison be joint TT’s

ET-OOFS TOR - overview Provide observation requirements for OOFS to OPA – ET-OOFS will maintain the OOFS statement of guidance. ET-OOFS will review requirements of existing systems and new systems. Provide advice to JCOMM DMPA – ET-OOFS will coordinate the transition of data management infrastructure developed under GODAE into JCOMM DMPA. Provide advice to Members/Member states on OOFS – ET- OOFS will respond to WMO/IOC/JCOMM etc on OOFS related matters.

Real-time system Current members: Gary Brassington (Chair), Bureau of Meteorology Jim Cummings, US Navy Eric Dombrowsky, Mercator Ming Ji, NOAA/NCEP Adrian Hines, UKMetOffice Masafumi Kamachi, MRI, Japan Fraser Davidson, DFO-NAFC, Canada Secretariat and JCOMM Albert Fisher, IOC Alice Soares, WMO Peter Dexter,Co-president JCOMM Craig Donlon Services Program Area Bob Keeley, Data Management Program Area Candyce Clark, Observation Program Area Current

ET-OOFS – specific tasks The guide to operational ocean forecasting systems – Adrian Hines Monitoring of operational systems – Jim Cummings / Gary Brassington / Masafumi Kamachi Ocean services – Ming Ji / Fraser Davidson Pilot task team data management – Frederique Blanc Observational requirements – Gary Brassington Develop workplan under JCOMM3

ET-OFS – proposed membership Task members 1 member(chair) - Intergovernmental coordination, communication and reporting 1 member – research requirements (connection GOV etc) 1 member – observational requirements (connection OPA, GSSC etc.) 1 member – guide and nomenclature documentation 1 member – operational system status and monitoring 1 member – service status agency requirements (connection agency) 1 member - user community liaison coordinator (benefit/performance) 1 member – outreach and capacity building 1 member – Data management and operations infrastructure 1 member – MAES system integration 1 member - SI system integration (A vice chair selected by the chair from the task members) Proposed

ET-OFS - membership Special interest members 1 member – MSS system development GOV – chairs (officio) 1 member - CAS/WGNE Open members MyOcean and US-IOOS Operational agencies supporting operational ocean prediction systems Operational agencies developing ocean forecasting systems Regional alliances companion service groups (IO-GOOS, etc…)

Statement of Guidance – demonstration of ET-OOFS role

Observations Programme Area Coordination Group

Real-time system Proposed ET-OOFS tasks for TT-OSE - Identify deficiencies in OOFS performance and recommend observational requirements - Prepare recommendations based on evidence of cost effective metrics for operational monitoring of operational systems. ET-OOFS to review and include in the “The guide” as part of the operational monitoring system -Prepare a report on specific metrics for ET-OOFS to submit to the next RRR process and contribute to the “Statement of Guidance” - Developing the cost vs benefit case. Feedback on what the TT can deliver to this process.

Real-time system Proposed ET-OOFS tasks for TT-Intercomparison - Identify deficiencies in OOFS performance and recommend system changes - Prepare recommendations of mature and cost efficient metrics for operational monitoring of operational systems. ET-OOFS to review and include in the “The guide” as part of the operational monitoring system - Adapt existing metrics to standards for transition to - Adapt frameworks to standards to facilitate transition of future metrics to operations

Real-time system Proposed linkage to GOV-ST -Members of GOV-ST be encouraged to contribute/respond to ET-OOFS related activities - ET-OOFS and GOV-ST to be jointly presented to stakeholders and international forum - ET-OOFS and GOV-ST maintain communication on matters relating to OOFS of potential interest to either group - TT-OSE, TT-Inter-comparison have a joint set of tasks from both groups - An ET-OOFS member be a member of the TT’s to lead the ET-OOFS tasks within the TT

Real-time system Practical matters -ET-OOFS/GOV-ST to conduct joint meetings - Membership overlaps - Joint day for national reporting

Real-time system

Joint statement

What is a quality service – understanding user applications What is the performance threshold? i.e., the minimum performance that delivers impact What is a success / failure? What is the value of success / cost of failure? e.g., Life or property saved / lost, litigious implications What proportion can the service contribute to the outcomes? Sophistication / experience of the users systems e.g., tolerance of bad information, multiple information sources Predictability of the dependent products Time – time critical, forecast horizon Space – region, resolution

Feedback – internal and external Mixed response to formation of a new group ET-OOFS is required by JCOMM If forced to The clear alternative is for GODAE OceanView to become ET-OOFS under SPA Feedback is that GODAE OceanView wants to remain R&D focused and limit the inter-governmental process Two groups appears to be the right way forward for this next period of OOFS. Research focused group and a service focused group.

The RRR process CREATE AND UPDATE CREATE AND UPDATE CRITICAL REVIEW GENERATE STATEMENT OF GUIDANCE for each application area Statement of Guidance Observing system capabilities database User requirements database

Performance Benefit Performance Observational requirements Cost Benefit Cost Performance SPA/ET-OOFS + GOV + Agencies SPA/ET-OOFS + Agencies + User groups OPA+GSSC+Ma nufacturers +Operators Who can help with these problems ? SPA/ET-OOFS + Agencies

NWP surface fluxes, model error growth Observation coverage, Observation error, Automatic QC, Analysis optimisation Initialisation, Observation timeliness, Ocean predictability limits Operational performance – in practice Optimum performance curve Performance target