Proposed Contract to Perform Regional Sustained Hydro Peaking Capability Study Mary Johannis PNW Resource Adequacy Steering Committee January 29, 2008.

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Presentation transcript:

Proposed Contract to Perform Regional Sustained Hydro Peaking Capability Study Mary Johannis PNW Resource Adequacy Steering Committee January 29, 2008

PNW Res Adeq Steering Comm Mtg2 Reason for Contract Regional Hydro Evaluations –Pacific Northwest Coordination Agreement (PNCA) Annual Critical Period Planning Studies  Firm Energy Load Carrying Capability (FELCC) –PNUCC’s Northwest Regional Forecast (NRF) Uses Corps’ Model for Firm Hydro Energy No Capacity Analysis in April 2007 NRF –BPA’s White Book Uses BPA’s HYDSIM Model for Hydro Energy Monthly Firm Energy Firm Peak Hour Capacity FCRPS Operational Capacity ≠ Sustained Hydro Peak Capability NO REGIONAL SUSTAINED HYDRO PEAKING CAPABILITY ANALYSES

January 29, 2008PNW Res Adeq Steering Comm Mtg3 Reason for Contract Need for Regional Sustained Hydro Peaking Capability Analyses: –Informs Hydro Utilities’ Resource Planning Efforts –Assures Consistent Assumptions re: Flows on Common Tributaries –Bottom-up Assessment for a number of Hydro Conditions  Check of GENESYS-based Regional Sustained Hydro Peaking Capability –Allows for Consistent Hydro Capacity Reporting to WECC

January 29, 2008PNW Res Adeq Steering Comm Mtg4 Scope of Work PHASE I: –Select Contractor, who is knowledgeable of PNW Hydro and is Well-Respected –Contractor to facilitate Development of Detailed Scope of Work PHASE II: Contractor –Treats Individual Data and Analyses as Confidential –Assembles/Develops 18 hour Sustained Hydro Peaking Capabilities for a number of different Run-off Conditions –Assures consistency of Flow Assumptions –Checks that Aggregate Purchases ≤ Assumptions in Capacity Adequacy Standard

January 29, 2008PNW Res Adeq Steering Comm Mtg5

January 29, 2008PNW Res Adeq Steering Comm Mtg6 Example: Maximized FCRPS Sustained Peaking Capability Calculated Sustained FCRPS Cap Purchases Cap to meet Expected Load Surplus Cap to meet PRM

January 29, 2008PNW Res Adeq Steering Comm Mtg7 Deliverables 18-hour Sustained Hydro Peaking Capability Values per Hydro Project or per Utility 1 Hour Peak Hydro Capacity Number from Analysis Facilitated Discussion of Results of Analysis to allow for the selection of Regional Runoff Condition 1/, for Which to Report to WECC and possibly PNUCC 1/ which meets WECC’s criteria for reporting hydro capacity

January 29, 2008PNW Res Adeq Steering Comm Mtg8 Deliverables Filled in Values

January 29, 2008PNW Res Adeq Steering Comm Mtg9 Cost Sharing Funding Entities –BPA –Council In-kind Services –Hydro Utilities: Providing Data, Analyses and Quality Control Checks