Greenhouse Gas Emissions in India: Implications to Climate Change Siv Balachandran Shekhar Chandra.

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Presentation transcript:

Greenhouse Gas Emissions in India: Implications to Climate Change Siv Balachandran Shekhar Chandra

Trends of Major Greenhouse Gases

Emission Trends: 10 Nations

Global Emissions Sources: UNFCC Report

India NAAQS

Multi-gas Emission Trends

**Energy Department projects even more pronounced trends in coming years (11 th fifth year plan, )** Total CO2 Emissions From India: Relative Trends

Emissions in India Sources: Earth Trends and Country Profiles

India Energy Consumption

CO2 Emissions From Different Fuel Type Source: Department of Energy, GoI

Future Growth in Different Sources Due to Increasing Needs

Future Economic Scenarios IPCC (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) SRES Framework A: Centralization B: Decentralization 1: High integration with global markets 2: Low integration with global markets Source: Shukla, Current Science, V90, #3

Emissions Projections National level top-down macro- economic models –SGM/ERB National level bottom-up energy system models –MARKAL with AIM, ANSWER-MARKAL Local level bottom-up models Source: Shukla, Current Science, V90, #3

Future Growth Trends Source: Shukla, Current Science, V90, #3

CO2 Emission Scenario IA1 < IA2 Better technology leads to greater efficiency Source: Shukla, Current Science, V90, #3

CH4 Emission Scenario Source: Shukla, Current Science, V90, #3

N2O Emission Scenario Source: Shukla, Current Science, V90, #3

Emission Trends for IA2 Source: Shukla, Current Science, V90, #3

100 Year CO2 Trends All scenarios show a rising trend Improved energy efficiency only goes so far Source: Shukla, Current Science, V90, #3

Stabilization Mechanisms 1990’s M Tons mitigation –Population growth stabilization –Improved roadway/transit networks –Alternative fuels –Incentives for sustainable technology –Conservation/recycling –Land conservation/re-forestation Source: Shukla, Current Science, V90, #3

Energy Consumption Coal based power generation and transportation What options are available for stabilizing CO2 emissions from these sources?

CO2 Stabilization Scenario Source: Shukla, Current Science, V90, #3

Unresolved Questions How realistic are renewable energy goals? Biomass - food vs. fuel? Nuclear feasibility - political and technical? Built-in efficiencies?

Summary Role of developing nations in GHG emissions continues to be important Development versus sustainability Multi-faceted solutions