Three-State Air Quality Study (3SAQS) Three-State Data Warehouse (3SDW) Status of 3SAQS Air Quality and Emissions Modeling University of North Carolina (UNC-IE) Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA) ENVIRON International Corporation (ENVIRON) July 28, 2014

2 3SAQS Current Status (7/28/14) Revised Draft 2011 Modeling Protocol (Jul 2014) Response-to-Comments on draft (April) 2011 Modeling Protocol (7/22/14) Draft WRF 2011 Application/Evaluation Report (Jul 2014) – Request comments from 3SAQS Tech Com Pending Inventory Comparison Memo (Jul 2014) CAMx /12 km 2008b running & MPE to follow CAMx 2020a/ /12 km running CAMx /12/4 km 2011a running & MPE to follow CAMx 2020a/ /12/4 km in preparation

3 3SAQS 2008 Modeling Status Version B of the 3SAQS 2008 CAMx modeling – Corrections to onroad mobile emissions spatial distribution errors – Corrections to meteorology-based livestock NH3 temporal profiles Complete modeling platform available on the 3SDW – Online (ftp) now, currently loading onto an external hard drive – Includes all data, modeling software, and utilities – Includes download scripts and instructions for using the data for NEPA modeling

4 3SAQS 2008 Modeling Status 12-km Domain-wide Daily Max 1-hour Ozone MPE plots are all available through the 3SDW image browser

5 3SAQS 2008-base 2020 Modeling Status Emissions processing and QA are finished – Much time spent on preparing the oil and gas emissions and reconciling the 3SAQS inventories with the NEI CAMx runs are starting this week, likely finished mid-August

6 3SAQS 2011 Modeling Status Emissions processing and QA are finished – Much time spent on preparing the oil and gas emissions and reconciling the 3SAQS inventories with the NEI CAMx runs started last week MPE results will be generated on the 12 and 4-km domains as the simulations complete – Comparisons to observations – Compare performance benchmarks to the CAMx 2008 simulations

7 3SAQS 2011 Modeling Status All Sources, August Monthly Total: August 2011 Monthly Total Emissions 3SAQS Area O&G CH4 3SAQS Point O&G CH4 NEI Area O&G CH4 Livestock NH3

8 3SAQS 2011-base 2020 Modeling Status Emissions processing and QA are mostly finished – Many of the NEI-based sectors are using 2018 projections because that is the future year for the 2011v1 NEI platform – 2020 projections are being used for oil and gas and onroad mobile CAMx runs will be started later in August and finished in late September

9 Emissions Comparison Memo Memo comparing sector, state and county total emissions for the 2008, , 2011, SAQS inventories Finished adding the 2011 and 2020 O&G emissions updates into the memo last week Circulate the memo for comments

10 Emissions Comparison Memo