Image courtesy of NASA/GSFC

PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS Climate Change: Interface with Plant Sciences Eugene S. Takle Professor of Atmospheric Science Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences Professor of Agricultural Meteorology Department of Agronomy Iowa State University Ames, Iowa Plant Science Institute Iowa State University Ames, IA 26 October 2007

PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS ppm Carbon Dioxide and Temperature

PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS ppm Carbon Dioxide and Temperature

Natural and anthropogenic contributions to global temperature change (Meehl et al., 2004). Observed values from Jones and Moberg Grey bands indicate 68% and 95% range derived from multiple simulations.

Source: Jerry Meehl, National Center for Atmospheric Research

PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers Reduced Consumption Energy intensive Energy conserving Adaptation Necessary Mitigation Possible

Tin and Seager

PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS Projected Changes for the Climate of Iowa/Midwest (My tentative assessment)  Longer frost-free period (high)  Higher average winter temperatures (high)  Fewer extreme cold temperatures in winter (high)  More extreme high temperatures in summer (medium)  Lower mean summertime daily max temperature  Higher nighttime temperatures both summer and winter (high)  More (~10%) precipitation (medium)  More variability of summer precipitation (high) –More intense rain events and hence more runoff (high) –Higher episodic streamflow (medium) –Longer periods without rain (medium)  Higher absolute humidity (high)  Stronger storm systems (medium)  Reduced annual mean wind speeds (medium) Follows trend of last 25 years and projected by models No current trend but model suggestion or current trend but models inconclusive

D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet

North America Regional Climate Change Assessment Program  Raymond Arritt, William Gutowski, Gene Takle, Iowa State University  Erasmo Buono, Richard Jones, Hadley Centre, UK  Daniel Caya, OURANOS, Canada  Phil Duffy, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratories, USA  Filippo Giorgi, Jeremy Pal, Abdus Salam ICTP, Italy  Isaac Held, Ron Stouffer, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, USA  René Laprise, Univ. de Québec à Montréal, Canada  Ruby Leung, Pacific Northwest National Laboratories, USA  Linda O. Mearns, Doug Nychka, Phil Rasch, Tom Wigley, National Center for Atmospheric Research, USA  Ana Nunes, John Roads, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, USA  Steve Sain, Univ. of Colorado at Denver, USA  Lisa Sloan, Mark Snyder, Univ. of California at Santa Cruz, USA Linda O. Mearns, National Center for Atmospheric Research Principal Investigator

NARCCAP PLAN A2 Emissions Scenario GFDLCCSM HADAM3 link to EU programs CGCM current future Provide boundary conditions MM5 Iowa State/ PNNL RegCM3 UC Santa Cruz ICTP CRCM Quebec, Ouranos HADRM3 Hadley Centre RSM Scripps WRF NCAR/ PNNL NARCCAP IAMAS 2005

PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS Potential Plant-Climate Research Issues  Plants that adapt to climate change –Higher yield (seed and/or biomass; above-ground and/or below-ground) –Drought tolerance –Disease resistance –Resilient to water logging  Plants that mitigate climate change –Carbon sequestration –Plants for fuels –Artificial photosynthesis (?)

PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS Potential Plant-Climate Research Issues  Plants that deliver environmental services –Stimulate rainfall, enhance recycling ratio –Protect soil from erosion –Better use of early season PAR

Recycling ratio, R = P L /P P L = precipitation from local sources P = total precipitation Amazon: R ~ ( ) Upper Mississippi River Basin: R~ ( )

May June Jul

ISU Climate Science and Impacts Initiative Open invitation to faculty, staff, and graduate students to discuss opportunities for collaboration on basic science and applications of climate change and climate variability Monday November 26 4:00-5:30 PM 3140 Agronomy Hall (?) Overview of regional climate science at ISU (10 min) Proposals submitted Funding opportunities available