A Drought History of Alabama, Georgia and the Panhandle of Florida David Emory Stooksbury, Ph.D. State Climatologist – Associate Professor Engineering and Atmospheric Sciences The University of Georgia

Drought in the Southeast

Is a normal component of the climate system Is a normal component of the climate system

Drought in the Southeast Is a normal component of the climate system Is a normal component of the climate system Has occurred in the past and will in the future Has occurred in the past and will in the future

Drought in the Southeast Is a normal component of the climate system Is a normal component of the climate system Has occurred in the past and will in the future Has occurred in the past and will in the future No evidence of change in drought frequency or intensity No evidence of change in drought frequency or intensity

Drought in the Southeast Is a normal component of the climate system Is a normal component of the climate system Has occurred in the past and will in the future Has occurred in the past and will in the future No evidence of change in drought frequency or intensity No evidence of change in drought frequency or intensity At least from a climatic view At least from a climatic view

Drought in the Southeast Is a normal component of the climate system Is a normal component of the climate system Has occurred in the past and will in the future Has occurred in the past and will in the future No evidence of change in drought frequency or intensity No evidence of change in drought frequency or intensity Societal Changes change our vulnerability to drought – both increasing and decreasing our vulnerability Societal Changes change our vulnerability to drought – both increasing and decreasing our vulnerability

Societal Changes in the Southeast

Rapid population growth starting after World War II Rapid population growth starting after World War II

Societal Changes in the Southeast Rapid population growth starting after World War II Rapid population growth starting after World War II Accelerated growth since 1980 Accelerated growth since 1980

Societal Changes in the Southeast Rapid population growth starting after World War II Rapid population growth starting after World War II Accelerated growth since 1980 Accelerated growth since – Metro Atlanta about 1,000, – Metro Atlanta about 1,000,000

Societal Changes in the Southeast Rapid population growth starting after World War II Rapid population growth starting after World War II Accelerated growth since 1980 Accelerated growth since – Metro Atlanta about 1 million 1960 – Metro Atlanta about 1 million 1960 – State of Georgia about 4.5 million 1960 – State of Georgia about 4.5 million

Societal Changes in the Southeast Rapid population growth starting after World War II Rapid population growth starting after World War II Accelerated growth since 1980 Accelerated growth since – Metro Atlanta about 1 million 1960 – Metro Atlanta about 1 million 1960 – State of Georgia about 4.5 million 1960 – State of Georgia about 4.5 million 2008 – Metro Atlanta over 4.5 million 2008 – Metro Atlanta over 4.5 million

Societal Changes in the Southeast Rapid population growth starting after World War II Rapid population growth starting after World War II Accelerated growth since 1980 Accelerated growth since – Metro Atlanta about 1 million 1960 – Metro Atlanta about 1 million 1960 – State of Georgia about 4.5 million 1960 – State of Georgia about 4.5 million 2009 – Metro Atlanta over 4.5 million 2009 – Metro Atlanta over 4.5 million 2009 – State of Georgia over 9 million 2009 – State of Georgia over 9 million

Societal Changes in the Southeast Rapid population growth starting after World War II Rapid population growth starting after World War II Accelerated growth since 1980 Accelerated growth since 1980 Growth has be unevenly distributed Growth has be unevenly distributed

Societal Changes in the Southeast Rapid population growth starting after World War II Rapid population growth starting after World War II Accelerated growth since 1980 Accelerated growth since 1980 Growth has be unevenly distributed Growth has be unevenly distributed Along the coast Along the coast Northern Piedmont – top of the water shed Northern Piedmont – top of the water shed

Societal Changes in the Southeast Rapid population growth starting after World War II Rapid population growth starting after World War II Landscape changes Landscape changes

Societal Changes in the Southeast Rapid population growth starting after World War II Rapid population growth starting after World War II Landscape changes Landscape changes Urban sprawl – changes in the watershed flow patterns Urban sprawl – changes in the watershed flow patterns

Societal Changes in the Southeast Rapid population growth starting after World War II Rapid population growth starting after World War II Landscape changes Landscape changes Urban sprawl – changes in the watershed flow patterns Urban sprawl – changes in the watershed flow patterns Conversion of row crop fields to forest (started in 1920s) Conversion of row crop fields to forest (started in 1920s)

Societal Changes in the Southeast Rapid population growth starting after World War II Rapid population growth starting after World War II Landscape changes Landscape changes Agricultural Changes Agricultural Changes

Societal Changes in the Southeast Rapid population growth starting after World War II Rapid population growth starting after World War II Landscape changes Landscape changes Agricultural Changes Agricultural Changes Shift in amount in land in row crops and trees Shift in amount in land in row crops and trees

Societal Changes in the Southeast Rapid population growth starting after World War II Rapid population growth starting after World War II Landscape changes Landscape changes Agricultural Changes Agricultural Changes Shift in amount in land in row crops and trees Shift in amount in land in row crops and trees Increase in irrigation Increase in irrigation

Societal Changes in the Southeast Rapid population growth starting after World War II Rapid population growth starting after World War II Landscape changes Landscape changes Agricultural Changes Agricultural Changes Shift in amount in land in row crops and trees Shift in amount in land in row crops and trees Increase in irrigation Increase in irrigation Increase in urban agriculture – the “green” industry Increase in urban agriculture – the “green” industry

Climate Trends Across the Southeast

Since 1900 – No trend in yearly precipitation Since 1900 – No trend in yearly precipitation Since 1900 – No trend to slight cooling in yearly average temperatures Since 1900 – No trend to slight cooling in yearly average temperatures

The Drivers Location, Location, Location El Nio and La Nia El Ni ñ o and La Ni ñ a

Coupled Air-Sea Interactions The El Nino/La Nina cycle is the predominant mode of year to year climate variability. “The CPC seasonal forecasts lack useful skill in the absence of a strong El Niño/La Niña event” - Bob Livezey

Tracking Tracking the El Niño /La Niña Cycle Sea surface temperature anomalies averaged over the Nino 3.4 portion of the equatorial Pacific Ocean Smoothed with a three-month running average to reduce noise

Winter Jet Stream Patterns During El Niño and La Niña El Niño La Niña

El Niño Effects on Precipitation

La Niña Effects on Precipitation

Alabama Droughts

Georgia Droughts

Annual North Central Georgia

Annual West Central Georgia

Annual Alabama Piedmont Plateau

Annual Southwest Georgia

Annual Coastal Plain Alabama

Annual Northwest Florida

The Seasonal Distribution is IMPORTANT

Typical Recharge in North Georgia - Courtesy SERFC

Response of Hydrologic Systems Response of Hydrologic Systems Apalachicola River at Chattahoochee, Florida

ENSO and Flow Rates ENSO and Flow Rates Apalachicola River at Chattahoochee, Florida

Rainfall By Seasons

Winter North Central Georgia

Spring North Central Georgia

Summer North Central Georgia

Fall North Central Georgia

Winter West Central Georgia

Spring West Central Georgia

Summer West Central Georgia

Fall West Central Georgia

Winter Piedmont Plateau Alabama

Spring Piedmont Plateau Alabama

Summer Piedmont Plateau Alabama

Fall Piedmont Plateau Alabama

Winter Southwest Georgia

Spring Southwest Georgia

Summer Southwest Georgia

Fall Southwest Georgia

Winter Coastal Plain Alabama

Spring Coastal Plain Alabama

Summer Coastal Plain Alabama

Fall Coastal Plain Alabama

Winter Northwest Florida

Spring Northwest Florida

Summer Northwest Florida

Fall Northwest Florida

Tree Ring Drought Information Long-term Droughts (3 or more years PDI < -0.99) Long-term Droughts (3 or more years PDI < -0.99)

Tree Ring Drought Information Long-term Droughts (3 or more years PDI < -0.99) Long-term Droughts (3 or more years PDI < -0.99) Long-term drought about once in 40 years Long-term drought about once in 40 years

Tree Ring Drought Information Long-term Droughts (2 or more years PDI < -0.99) Long-term Droughts (2 or more years PDI < -0.99) Adds the following years Adds the following years

Tree Ring Drought Information Long-term Droughts (2 or more years) Long-term Droughts (2 or more years) Adds the following years Adds the following years Return interval is now once in 25 years

Some Drought Monitoring Tools

US Drought Monitor

Lawn and Garden Index

Summer Drought and Moistness Index Alabama th Driest

Summary

Summary Droughts are a normal component of the climate system Droughts are a normal component of the climate system

Summary We will have droughts in the future We will have droughts in the future

Summary Droughts are a normal component of the climate system Droughts are a normal component of the climate system We will have droughts in the future We will have droughts in the future No trend in southeastern climate since 1900 No trend in southeastern climate since 1900

Summary Droughts are a normal component of the climate system Droughts are a normal component of the climate system We will have droughts in the future We will have droughts in the future No trend in southeastern climate since 1900 No trend in southeastern climate since 1900 More people but the same amount of water More people but the same amount of water