New Mexico Population Projections: Assumptions, Methods, Validation, and Results For the Data User Conference Geospatial and Population Studies University.

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Presentation transcript:

New Mexico Population Projections: Assumptions, Methods, Validation, and Results For the Data User Conference Geospatial and Population Studies University of New Mexico Nov. 2013

Method  Using the Census 2010 county level age-sex break-ups as the base year anchor population.  Using NMDOH Birth Records to calculate 5-year average 5-year age group birth rate.  Using NMDOH Death Records to calculate 5-year average single-year ASMR.  Migration from three sources: forward surviving, backward surviving, and IRS tax return exempts. 1

2 Method Summary Single Year Age Population Projection Process Base Population Birth Death Migration Future Population 1 year or 5 year age group population by sex Basic Population Component Data input Sex Ratio Childbearing age population ASFR CDR TFR ASMRLife Table and Life Expectancy IRS cross tabulated migration Census Forward Survival migration Decomposing Process to fit into Cohort Component Method Input =

 Total fertility rate, TFR, is used as the assumption for birth, and is assumed to converge at 2.1 at the end of projection period.  Life expectancy is used to represent the assumption for mortality, and is assumed to converge at national level at the end of projection period.  Migration population is assumed to join and share the same TFR and life expectancy as local people. 3 Assumptions

4 Migration Method: Forward Surviving Bernalillo County556,678662,56447, Age in yearsMale Proportion of SurvivingCensusForward SurvivalCensus Net Migration x to x+1px271,904324,46023, ,469-1, ,524-1, ,816-1, , , , , , , , Female Net Migration x to x+1px284,774338,10424, ,293-1, ,397-1, ,500-1, , , , , , , , , , , ,213467

5 Migration Method: Backward Surviving Bernalillo County662,564556,67854, MaleProportion of SurvivingBackward SurvivalCensus Net Migration px324,460271,90426, Net Migration px338,104284,77428,

6 Migration Method: Average Three Sets of Migration Data  Average age-sex structure from forward and backward surviving method  Apply the averaged age-sex structure to the tax return exempt county totals  Average the three sets of migration data to obtain the data for migration input  Run Cohort Component Model

7 Migration Method: Comparison Forward Surviving Backward Surviving Tax Exempt Total 9,3378,7327,800 New Mexico Annual Total Net Migration 10 year average, both sex

Validation: Natural Increase and Migration 8  The percentage contribution of natural increase and net migration changes over the 30 years. YearNatural Increase % Net Migration % %49.6% %63.3% Average41.8%58.2%

Validation: Dependency Ratio for Young Group 9

10 Validation: Dependency Ratio for Senior Group

11 Validation: Dependency Ratio over Projection Period

Comparison of Historical Trend 12

Using Excel Macro Program to Retrieve Customized Data Table 13 Result

14 Contact ： Xiaomin Ruan Thank you!