Evaluating Longevity: 10 Years of Using Stayability EPD Larry Keenan Research & Special Projects Coordinator, RAAA

Outline History of RAAA EPD Philosophy History of RAAA EPD Philosophy Stayability Stayability Calculation Calculation Breeders’ View Breeders’ View Strengths Strengths Weaknesses Weaknesses Next Generation Next Generation

Strategic Plan 2000 Developed in 1993 Developed in 1993 Actions: Actions: Increase number of EPDs available to 20 by the year 2000 Increase number of EPDs available to 20 by the year 2000 Implement Total Herd Reporting (THR) Implement Total Herd Reporting (THR)

RAAA EPDs BW BW WW WW YW YW Milk Milk TM TM 2000 BW WW YW Milk TM STAY MARB REA FAT Did we fail? NO, the goal changed!

RAAA Philosophy Commercial producers are our customers Commercial producers are our customers > 95% of Red Angus bulls are sold to commercial producers > 95% of Red Angus bulls are sold to commercial producers Members (seedstock producers) succeed through enabling the success (profit) of their commercial customers Members (seedstock producers) succeed through enabling the success (profit) of their commercial customers What does the commercial producer need to succeed? What does the commercial producer need to succeed?

Commercial Producer’s Requirements for Replacement Females 1. Be Born Unassisted 2. Get Bred to Calve as a 2-yr-old 3. Have 1 st Calf Without Assistance 4. Rebreed to Calve Again in 365 Days 5. Complete Steps 2-4 Without Extra Feed or TLC 6. Wean a Heavy Calf 7. Pass on Added Value Traits to Offspring 8. Repeat Steps 1-7 for Many Years

RAAA EPD Philosophy Accurately describe animals using the fewest genetic predictions possible Accurately describe animals using the fewest genetic predictions possible Concept driven by Economically Relevant Traits (ERT) Concept driven by Economically Relevant Traits (ERT)

Why ERTs? Indicator Scrotal Circumference B.W. & Calving Ease Score Mature Weight, Milk & BCS Calving Records ERT Heifer Pregnancy Rate Calving Ease Cow Maintenance Energy Requirement Stayability

Commercial Producer’s Requirements for Replacement Females 1. Be Born Unassisted 2. Get Bred to Calve as a 2-yr-old 3. Have 1 st Calf Without Assistance 4. Rebreed to Calve Again in 365 Days 5. Complete Steps 2-4 Without Extra Feed or TLC 6. Wean a Heavy Calf 7. Pass on Added Value Traits to Offspring 8. Repeat Steps 1-7 for Many Years CED HPG CETM (1/2 CED + CE Maternal) ME TM STAY

Stayability Expected difference, in percent probability, of daughters staying productive within a herd until six years of age

Stayability Developed in the early 1990’s Developed in the early 1990’s For non THR data For non THR data 1 st STAY EPD released in st STAY EPD released in 1995 Probability of a cow staying in production after reaching her break- even age (6 Years) Probability of a cow staying in production after reaching her break- even age (6 Years) Break-even age varies by operation Break-even age varies by operation

Measuring Stayability Through Total Herd Reporting (THR) RAAA has production records of every registered Red Angus cow on inventory Through Total Herd Reporting (THR) RAAA has production records of every registered Red Angus cow on inventory Calving Records Calving Records Reason Codes Reason Codes

Calculation of RAAA Stayability Endpoint: 6 Years (2,190 days) Endpoint: 6 Years (2,190 days) Single Trait Threshold Model Single Trait Threshold Model In production after 6 years of age: Yes or No In production after 6 years of age: Yes or No Ability to use historical data Ability to use historical data

RAAA Stayability Simple Statistics MinAveMax Proven & Opportunity Sires Active Dams on Inventory Non-Parents under 2-years of Age 1119

RAAA Stayability Genetic Trend

Breeders’ View #1 “Stays on the radar screen” “Stays on the radar screen” “Doesn’t eliminate sires, but corrective matings are used” “Doesn’t eliminate sires, but corrective matings are used” “Has potential to be a major player” “Has potential to be a major player”

Breeders’ View #2 “Not aggressively selected for at the current time” “Not aggressively selected for at the current time” “We don’t use a bad Stayability bull” “We don’t use a bad Stayability bull” “However, there have not been any good bulls with bad stayability” “However, there have not been any good bulls with bad stayability” “With improvements, Stayability would be aggressively selected for” “With improvements, Stayability would be aggressively selected for”

Weaknesses Extended time to ‘prove’ bulls Extended time to ‘prove’ bulls BW vs. STAY BW vs. STAY Doesn’t account for reproduction each year Doesn’t account for reproduction each year One calf produced after 6 years of age One calf produced after 6 years of age Are seedstock producers more forgiving in regards to fertility? Are seedstock producers more forgiving in regards to fertility?

Weaknesses When females are culled, model doesn’t account for why they were culled When females are culled, model doesn’t account for why they were culled Failure to reproduce Failure to reproduce Structural/Phenotypic Traits: udder, feet, etc. Structural/Phenotypic Traits: udder, feet, etc. Owner exiting beef industry Owner exiting beef industry Died from unnatural causes (lightning, fire, etc.) Died from unnatural causes (lightning, fire, etc.) Limits use as fertility genetic predictor Limits use as fertility genetic predictor

Strengths Provides producers a tool to increase profits Provides producers a tool to increase profits Recapture investment cost of female Recapture investment cost of female Calculated using THR based calving records Calculated using THR based calving records Requires no additional data Requires no additional data Acceptable heritability -.10 Acceptable heritability -.10 Just less than Milk -.12 Just less than Milk -.12

Strengths An indicator of Reproductive Merit An indicator of Reproductive Merit Failure to reproduce – Main culling reason Failure to reproduce – Main culling reason Cattle that are culled for reproductive failings prior to 6 th year “fail threshold” Cattle that are culled for reproductive failings prior to 6 th year “fail threshold”

Extended Fertility vs. Total Stayability Current model is a good measure of Total Stayability, which is the ‘true’ ERT Current model is a good measure of Total Stayability, which is the ‘true’ ERT Combination of traits Combination of traits Fertility Fertility Udder Quality Udder Quality Soundness Soundness Progeny Performance Progeny Performance Easy Keepers Easy Keepers Disposition Disposition

Extended Fertility vs. Total Stayability But, does the ‘noise’ reduce its effectiveness? But, does the ‘noise’ reduce its effectiveness? Producers varying culling criteria Producers varying culling criteria Criteria may change from year to year Criteria may change from year to year Does contemporary grouping account for these issues? Does contemporary grouping account for these issues?

Extended Fertility vs. Total Stayability Would an extended fertility genetic prediction be a better tool for commercial producers? Would an extended fertility genetic prediction be a better tool for commercial producers? Reproduction is times more economically relevant as compared to carcass traits Reproduction is times more economically relevant as compared to carcass traits

Extended Fertility vs. Total Stayability How can we evaluate Extended Fertility? How can we evaluate Extended Fertility? Use of disposal codes to determine why they were culled. Was it because of fertility? Use of disposal codes to determine why they were culled. Was it because of fertility? If not, they wouldn’t get a negative observation If not, they wouldn’t get a negative observation

Improvements Stayability model should account for production from two years of age forward Stayability model should account for production from two years of age forward Can only be accomplished with THR data Can only be accomplished with THR data Benefit: Separate bulls quicker Benefit: Separate bulls quicker Concern: Bulls that produce high percentage of daughters that stay in the herd until 5, then fall out Concern: Bulls that produce high percentage of daughters that stay in the herd until 5, then fall out

RAAA Data Do we have the data to make these improvements? Do we have the data to make these improvements? Red Angus has over a decade of THR Data Red Angus has over a decade of THR Data Disposal Codes Disposal Codes

THR DATA Total (since 1954) Total (since 1954) Females – 534,035 Females – 534,035 Females with progeny – 255,504 Females with progeny – 255,504 Since implementation of THR (Fall 1995) Since implementation of THR (Fall 1995) Females – 260,062 Females – 260,062 Females with progeny – 100,342 Females with progeny – 100,342

Disposal Codes Physical Defect Physical Defect Fertility Fertility Performance Performance/Productivity Temperament Temperament Age Age Other Other THR 2,063 2,06311,99711, ,985Total 3,818 3,81820,17018,830 1,422 1,422 8,783 96,978

Summary RAAA first to release Stayability RAAA first to release Stayability Realize the commercial producers needs Realize the commercial producers needs RAAA’s Stayability is a good ERT RAAA’s Stayability is a good ERT Based on THR Based on THR

Could Be A Great Tool! Could Be A Great Tool! 10 years of THR data and disposal codes fuel a powerful Stayability or Extended Fertility tool